April 16th, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38% to close at 40368.96 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.17% to close at 5396.63 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.05% to close at 16823.17 points.

Among them, the stocks of the seven major tech giants showed mixed results. Nvidia's stock price plunged after the market closed, with a drop of more than 6% at one point, but finally closed up by 1.35%. Tesla closed up by 0.7%, while the other five companies had small declines.

Trend chart of the seven major U.S. stocks iFinD from Tonghuashun

Nvidia's volatility triggers a chain reaction

It is reported that Nvidia warned that it would incur approximately $5.5 billion in costs in the first quarter of this fiscal year, which are related to "inventory, purchase commitments, and associated reserves" associated with the H20 series chips.

Nvidia stated in regulatory documents on Tuesday that the U.S. government notified the company on Monday that future exports of H20 chips to China will require an "indefinite" export license. The government indicated that the new regulations are aimed at addressing concerns about these chips potentially being used or diverted for use in Chinese supercomputers.

Following Nvidia's post-market plunge, AMD fell over 7% after hours, Broadcom fell 4% after hours, Micron Technology and ARM both fell more than 3% after hours. U.S. stock futures fell in early Asian trading, with S&P futures down 0.90%, Dow futures down 0.50%, and Nasdaq futures down 1.3%.

Nvidia has stated that further tightening of export restrictions will only strengthen China's determination to摆脱 dependence on American technology and will weaken the competitiveness of American enterprises.

Trump starts another investigation into imported minerals

It is reported that on the 15th local time, the White House said that U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to investigate the national security risks of U.S. dependence on imports of processed critical minerals and their derivatives.

Relevant data shows that the United States still fully depends on imports for 15 critical minerals, and more than 50% of the supply of another 29 minerals depends on imports. At the same time, according to data from the U.S. company Govini, in over 1,000 weapon systems using gallium, germanium, and antimony, 87% of the supply chain relies on Chinese suppliers. Currently, China holds more than 60% of the world's rare earth reserves and completes approximately 90% of global rare earth resource processing.

Previously, as part of China's countermeasures against the U.S.'s "reciprocal tariffs," included in the countermeasures was the restriction of rare earth exports. It is reported that on April 4th, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued Announcement No. 18 of 2025, imposing export control on relevant items related to heavy rare earths based on the "Law of the People's Republic of China on Export Control" and the "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items." This is the second revision of the "Export Control List of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China" by the Ministry of Commerce in 2025.

Selling pressure continues

On April 15th local time, a report released by Bank of America showed that global investors have dramatically reduced their holdings of U.S. stocks over the past two months.

In Bank of America's monthly survey of fund managers in April, the net position of U.S. equities held by surveyed fund managers decreased by 36%, compared to an increase of 17% in February, setting a record for the largest change within two months in history.

According to a survey by Bank of America of over 100 investors managing $386 billion (approximately RMB 2800 billion), 42% of respondents expect the global economy to enter a recession.

Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a newly released report that the main challenge facing investors is understanding the "master plan" of the U.S. government regarding its trade policies and their possible frequent changes.

The analysts believe that the U.S. government seems to recognize that reorganizing trade relations will bring economic pain. U.S. President Trump has encouraged the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy and called on Congress to relax fiscal policy. This indicates that the U.S. government may have a "master plan": using U.S. monetary and fiscal policies to offset the adverse consequences brought by rebalancing global trade.

However, Morgan Stanley's analysis states that "this plan has a fatal flaw: the effects of monetary and fiscal policies lag far behind the impact of changes in trade policies."

It is reported that Morgan Stanley has been financing in the bond market for the second consecutive day, issuing three types of euro bonds with different maturities, raising €4 billion. On April 14th, Morgan Stanley had already raised $8 billion in debt, with the four bonds maturing at different times receiving $30.75 billion in subscriptions.

Goldman Sachs' latest report also issued a serious warning about the U.S. economic outlook: the U.S. economy is approaching zero growth, and inflation expectations have been significantly revised upward to around 3.5%. Goldman Sachs also believes that the U.S. dollar is currently overvalued by about 20%.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that more importantly, the shift towards trade protectionism weakens the prospects for the U.S. economy's superior performance not only in the short term but also in the long term.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493712424362492456/

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