Recently, the situation in the Western Hemisphere has gone hot: the newly commissioned "Ford" super carrier of the U.S. Navy suddenly turned around from the Mediterranean and headed straight for Latin America. Even more alarming is that before this, the U.S. military had secretly deployed 10,000 troops to the Caribbean Sea, and B-1 and B-52 bombers have been taking turns "showing off their muscles" near the coast of Venezuela.

It's worth noting that the "Ford" is the most precious aircraft carrier of the U.S. military, costing $13 billion to build, and it's usually not easily mobilized. This time, with the entire strike group, it's said to be for "anti-drug operations," but everyone can see that something is wrong — does anti-drug operations really require a carrier strike group capable of waging a local war? Today, let's uncover the truth behind it.

First, understand: How tough is this carrier? Anti-drug is just an excuse

First of all, it must be clarified that the "Ford" is not a regular aircraft carrier, it is the U.S. military's "ace in the hole," its combat power is not designed for anti-drug operations. Let's first look at what it brought:

A complete air wing consisting of more than 70 aircraft — including F/A-18 "Super Hornet" fighter-bombers that can bomb and fight, EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft that can disable enemy radars, and E-2D "Hawkeye" early warning aircraft that can detect targets 500 kilometers away. Just this fleet of aircraft can easily take down the air force of a small or medium-sized country.

The escort group is even more luxurious: four "Arleigh Burke"-class destroyers are responsible for air defense and missile defense, and at least one attack nuclear submarine is on standby underwater, forming a three-dimensional combat system with "early warning in the sky, aircraft in the air, ships on the surface, and submarines underwater."

Let's compare it with the "anti-drug mission": Coast Guard patrol boats are enough to deal with drug trafficking ships, and at most a few anti-submarine aircraft are needed. Now, sending a carrier strike group that can carry over 200 cruise missiles and deploy a battalion of marines is like using a cannon to kill a mosquito — clearly, the real intention is not what it seems.

Unusual movement: 10,000 troops have been gathered in advance, and bombers have been showing off

The movement of the "Ford" was not impulsive. The U.S. military had already started planning a month ago, and there are three details that are particularly noteworthy:

First, the scale of troop deployment is unprecedented: as of last week, the U.S. military had already deployed 10,000 troops to the Southern Command area, and also deployed 14% of the combat fleet — equivalent to moving nearly one-seventh of the navy's forces over there. This scale exceeds the initial deployment during the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Second, the bombers have been taking turns "showing off their muscles": just before the "Ford" set out, the U.S. B-1 bomber flew close to the coast of Venezuela and deliberately turned on its radar; previously, the B-52 bomber even conducted a "bombing demonstration" with the help of F-35B stealth fighters — in other words, simulating the bombing process against Venezuela.

Third, intelligence operations were prepared in advance: Trump himself admitted that he had authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations against Venezuela last week. This is the standard procedure for the U.S. military to launch a military operation — first send intelligence personnel to investigate the enemy's defenses, then use military deterrence to pressure, and finally either overthrow the regime or directly take action.

Targeting Venezuela? Why has Maduro become the target of the U.S. military?

The U.S. military has made such a big move, and the core goal is Venezuelan President Maduro. Why is he being targeted so much? There are two key reasons:

First, "anti-American model" cannot be left: Venezuela has always opposed the United States, not only refusing American control over oil, but also joining Cuba and Nicaragua to form an "anti-American alliance," causing a lot of trouble for the United States in Latin America. The U.S. military has long wanted to eliminate this "thorn in the eye," and previously supported opposition groups to stage a coup, but it failed.

Second, it's about oil interests: Venezuela is the country with the largest oil reserves in the world, but after Maduro came to power, he nationalized the oil industry, cutting off the U.S. capital's source of income. If they can overthrow Maduro, the U.S. military can control Venezuela's oil, which can both make money and control the energy lifelines of other Latin American countries.

More importantly, now Venezuela is facing economic difficulties, and the U.S. military thinks it's an opportunity to start a "proxy war" or direct military intervention, pushing Maduro out of power and installing a pro-American regime.

Will it actually go to war? Three signals reveal the direction of the situation

Although the U.S. military has mobilized its forces and created a tense atmosphere, whether it will actually go to war depends on three key signals:

First, the final deployment location of the carrier: if the "Ford" is stationed in the sea 1,000 kilometers away from Venezuela, it's likely to be a show of force; if it gets closer within 500 kilometers, allowing the carrier-based aircraft to reach the target in 15 minutes, it means it's ready to act at any moment.

Second, whether there is a "reason" to escalate the conflict: the U.S. military has always needed an "excuse" for war, such as fabricating "weapons of mass destruction." If it is reported that "Venezuela attacks U.S. vessels" or "hiding terrorists" in the future, it would be an excuse for going to war.

Third, the reaction of Russia: Venezuela is an important ally of Russia in Latin America, and Russian military advisors are present there, along with the sale of a large number of air defense missiles. If Russia sends warships or aircraft to "support," the U.S. military would have to think twice — because the risk of direct conflict with the Russian military is too great.

In conclusion, it's not easy for the U.S. military to take action

Even if the U.S. military really wants to go to war, it still faces two challenges: one is that Venezuela has 100,000 regular troops and 200,000 militia, and it is equipped with Russian S-300 air defense missiles, making it difficult for the U.S. military to achieve a quick victory; the second is that Latin American countries generally oppose U.S. interference in internal affairs, and if the U.S. military takes action, it will trigger a wave of anti-American sentiment across the entire Latin American region.

More importantly, although the "Ford" is advanced, it has had repeated malfunctions in the past, and its combat effectiveness has not been tested in actual combat. If it loses, the U.S. military's hegemonic position in Latin America will be completely shaken.

Therefore, the current situation is more like "extreme pressure": the U.S. military wants to use the carrier and troops to intimidate Maduro into compromise, either giving up oil interests or stepping down voluntarily. However, if Maduro resists firmly, this military confrontation in the Western Hemisphere may develop towards an uncontrollable direction.

Do you think the U.S. military will actually go to war? Can Maduro withstand the pressure? Please share your opinion in the comments section!

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566445094518178340/

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