On June 16, 2025, the second China-Central Asia Summit was held in Astana, Kazakhstan, where leaders of China and the five Central Asian countries gathered. This was the second high-profile visit to Central Asia by China within less than a year, following the first summit in Xi'an, China, in 2023, highlighting its emphasis on this strategic region. Central Asia, long regarded as Russia's "backyard," has now become a center of the "new great game" among multiple powers such as China, the European Union, and Turkey.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the five Central Asian countries have attracted global attention due to their rich resources such as oil, gas, uranium, and gold, as well as their strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has made significant investments in the region, becoming the largest trading partner of Central Asia, far exceeding Russia and the European Union.

China's landmark projects in Central Asia include the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, the China-Tajikistan Highway, and logistics hubs like the Korgas "dry port" in Kazakhstan. These projects not only shorten the time for transporting goods between Europe and Asia but also provide China with a guarantee to bypass unstable sea routes and ensure resource supplies. According to Kyrgyzstan political scientist Nargiza Muratalieva, "Russian and Western institutions cannot fund infrastructure as quickly and on such a large scale as China."

Interestingly, Central Asia has become a battleground for influence among Russia, China, the European Union, and Turkey. In April 2025, the first Central Asia-EU Summit was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, where the EU pledged to invest 12 billion euros in transportation, energy, and satellite internet projects, focusing on developing the trans-Caspian international transport route to bypass Russia. Turkey deepens ethnic and cultural ties with Central Asia through the Turkic States Organization, while Russia maintains its influence through the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The Ukraine-Russia war and the US strategic shift towards the Indo-Pacific have prompted the EU to accelerate its presence in Central Asia. By enhancing its "strategic partnership" with Central Asia and making large-scale investments, the EU seeks to counter Russian influence. However, the scale and speed of EU funding are difficult to match China, and its geopolitical influence is limited due to weaker historical ties.

The five Central Asian countries skillfully balance among multiple powers to avoid over-reliance on a single partner. "Central Asian countries are using the growing interests in the region to coordinate foreign policies and present a unified group image to attract investment." For example, although Kazakhstan cooperates with Russia to build its first nuclear power plant, it has also expressed interest in having China build a second one.

Despite China's influence in Central Asia approaching or even surpassing that of Russia, Kremlin Spokesman Peskov stated, "China is our unique strategic partner, and Central Asian countries are also our natural historical partners; there is no reason to worry." Behind this statement are the following reasons:

Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation: China and Russia closely cooperate under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to jointly address Western pressures. China's economic expansion is seen by Russia as complementary rather than threatening. Due to the Ukraine war, Russia lacks the capacity to invest heavily in Central Asia and is willing to see China fill the gap. Both China and Russia oppose Western expansion in the Eurasian continent. Infrastructure projects in Central Asia, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway, objectively provide trade channels for Russia to bypass Western sanctions. Russia, relying on historical ties, common language, and military presence, remains an indispensable partner in Central Asia. For instance, the Collective Security Treaty Organization led by Russia provides security guarantees for Central Asia, while China focuses on economic cooperation, forming a division of labor.

Nevertheless, the expansion of Chinese influence in Central Asia is reshaping the Eurasian geopolitical landscape: on one hand, it weakens Russia's traditional dominance. Although Russia has not publicly opposed it, its economic and diplomatic influence has been partially replaced by China. As Central Asian countries reduce their reliance on Russia, it may weaken its control. On the other hand, it intensifies multipolar competition. The rivalry among China, the European Union, and Turkey makes Central Asia a microcosm of a multipolar world. The rise of trans-Caspian transport routes may further isolate Russia, while the success of China's Belt and Road Initiative will enhance its global influence. Thirdly, regional autonomy increases. Central Asian countries gain more autonomy and economic opportunities through balanced diplomacy.

The rise of China in Central Asia is not only an expression of its economic strategy but also an extension of its global strategy. Meanwhile, Central Asian countries seek maximum benefits amidst the multi-party rivalry. In the future, the "new great game" in Central Asia will continue to affect the balance of power in the Eurasian continent.



Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519350579005555227/

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