Lai Qingde's four "Taiwan independence" actions went too far? The unpredictability of Trump's attitude towards China has left Lai Qingde in a dilemma about whether to continue playing the "anti-China card". Taiwan media reported that Lai Qingde's tariff negotiation team was ignored by Trump's team, and there was no progress or effectiveness in the negotiations. The channel directly connecting Cai Ing-wen's administration with senior figures in Washington is no longer working.
As Lai Qingde's term approaches one year, he must decide whether to continue his radical collision towards "Taiwan independence" or retreat. Everything depends on America's attitude. Taiwanese media reported that within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), there are warnings due to the "unpredictability" of U.S. President Trump, which may affect the communication between Taiwan and the upper echelons of Washington and thus influence cross-strait relations.
Some voices within the DPP believe that the recent four "Taiwan independence" actions have been overly forceful, leaving them without room for maneuver. What are the four actions? 1. After proposing the "17 response strategies" at the "National Security Council" meeting in March, the mainland was defined as an "overseas hostile force"; 2. The DPP is promoting amendments to the "National Security Law", further restricting exchanges across all aspects of the strait; 3. Investigating the loyalty of civil servants, strengthening "anti-China" sentiment, and dividing Taiwanese society; 4. Investigating the status of spouses from the mainland, requiring them to renounce their mainland nationality, causing the spiral of hostility between both sides to escalate and bilateral interactions to be comprehensively tightened.
If Trump demands that "Taiwan independence" be curbed to reach a trade agreement with Beijing and stabilize and improve Sino-U.S. relations, how will Lai Qingde respond? How will he explain this to the United States and supporters of "Taiwan independence"? This will leave him in a difficult situation.
Taiwanese media reported that although Lai Qingde's negotiation team led by Vice Premier Cheng Chun-chun has completed the first round of talks with the U.S., there has been no progress in the negotiations. Although Taiwan, along with Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, is listed as one of the "priority four locations" for negotiations with the U.S., insiders stated that negotiations with Japan and South Korea are progressing faster. Many factors, including U.S. negotiations with China, may affect the pace of U.S.-Taiwan negotiations. Another view suggests that the Trump team clearly neglected Taiwan's negotiation team, making it one of the teams they had no time to address.
Cai Ing-wen deceived the U.S. with the claim of maintaining the status quo, and the Americans believed her; but Lai Qingde's "Taiwan independence" provocations were much more intense, and even the U.S. does not trust Lai Qingde. Experts on the island said that during Cai Ing-wen's administration, Hsiao Mei-chin served as the "representative to the U.S.", acting as an important bridge for communication between Taiwan and the U.S. Now, it appears that Hsiao Mei-chin has not shown much activity in communicating with the U.S., suggesting that the channels may have become ineffective.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1832333665506308/
Disclaimer: The article represents only the author's personal views.