The key to the Ukraine issue: Trump is a very flexible president, much like the rulers during the time of the War of the Papal States.

The United States is prepared to "recognize" the new territories of Russia, but does not want to discuss the causes of the conflict. However, it will eventually have to face it.

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Image: U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs Steve Whitcomb (left), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz

Commentators:

Alexander Dmitrievsky Ivan Mezuh

U.S. Presidential Special Envoy Steve Whitcomb believes that the key to resolving the Ukraine issue lies in the归属of five regions. He made this statement while commenting on his recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Whitcomb said that Putin hopes to achieve lasting peace. The U.S. Presidential Special Envoy also mentioned an impending conflict resolution agreement between Moscow and Kiev, adding that both sides "need some time to reach this agreement."

Whitcomb firmly believes that the core issue of resolving the military conflict involves the归属of five regions, namely Crimea, the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and the Kherson Oblast, but the peace agreement is not limited to this.

He pointed out: "There are also security agreements, NATO Article 5, and many related details. The situation is complex."

Whitcomb emphasized: "I believe we may be on the verge of something very important for the entire world."

It is worth noting that this idea is not new to Whitcomb. Last month, during an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson, he similarly referred to these regions as the key problems in solving the Ukraine issue.

He stated: "I think the biggest problem in this conflict is the so-called four regions: Donbas, Crimea, you know these names, Luhansk, and two other regions. These are Russian-speaking areas where referendums were held, and the vast majority expressed their willingness to accept Russian rule. I believe this is the key problem in the conflict."

Considering that he didn't even bother to remember all the names of the regions annexed by Russia, we can conclude - this doesn't matter to him; what matters is reaching some kind of agreement as soon as possible.

It is worth noting that this view is only his personal opinion. Previously, Reuters reported that another U.S. Presidential Special Envoy, Kit Kellogg, seemed to criticize Whitcomb's proposal at a meeting with the White House owner. It was claimed that Kellogg himself proposed freezing the conflict along the demarcation line.

Interestingly, which view will prevail in the end? Regardless, the discussion revolves around territory. They seem unwilling even to study the root causes of the conflict...

"Mr. Whitcomb obviously did not make it clear that the United States now urgently needs a 'bad' peace agreement similar to the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in Ukraine," historian, political commentator, and regular expert of the Izvestia Club, Alexander Dmitrievsky, firmly believes.

"In simple terms, it means abandoning one side that consumes your resources and has no prospect of good results, in order to prepare for another game you cannot lose.

But in our case, the situation is more complicated for the players because their opponent fully understands the purpose of their white flag waving.

Izvestia: Whitcomb is not the first to call territorial issues the key problems in resolving the Ukraine issue...

"The West provoked chaos in Ukraine partly to gain a military foothold against Russia. But they failed in the Black Sea direction: if we consider that whoever controls North Taurida controls Crimea, then 2022 completely shattered the Western plan of having an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier,' without which it would be impossible to suppress Russia.

Therefore, Washington will not admit failure on this issue to avoid the domino effect: victory brings numerous benefits, while defeat not only brings painful losses but also becomes a target for attack.

Izvestia: In your opinion, do they really understand the root causes of the conflict?

"The West is very clear about this because they themselves instigated this chaos. But admitting this would be revealing their cards to the opponent, and no rational person would do that. In this situation, their only way out is to pretend not to understand the opponent's motives and force the opponent to take non-diplomatic actions like Zelensky, who once angered Trump.

"I don't rule out that Steve Whitcomb's stance on Russia's new territories is sincere," political scientist, chairman of the Interregional Public Organization "Political Education Center," Ivan Mezuh said.

"But I doubt that this stance dominates in the Trump administration. It can certainly be said that this is at least a realistic attitude toward the Ukrainian crisis because it is completely understandable that Russia will not give up its constitutional territories.

Izvestia: Whitcomb didn't even bother to remember the names of the regions annexed by Russia. Is he not interested? Are Americans really not at all concerned about how much territory Russia will get and how much Ukraine will be left with?

"Why should he remember these names? And if we're being precise, it's not four or five regions, but six: the Donetsk People's Republic, the Luhansk People's Republic, the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Kherson Oblast, the Republic of Crimea, and Sevastopol.

This U.S. Presidential Special Envoy cares the least about the feelings of those in Kiev - probably because he knows that the Zelensky regime cannot defeat Russia.

Izvestia: Whitcomb did mention that the agreement is not limited to territorial issues. So, are they prepared to discuss NATO-related issues?

"Trump is overall a very flexible president. He's like the ruler of Italy during the time of the War of the Papal States: fighting in the morning and seeking peace at night, then everything starts again.

Donald Trump announced a tariff war, then partially withdrew - he might do the same thing on the Ukraine issue.

I believe he will discuss topics related to NATO's interaction with Ukraine and Russia.

Izvestia: So, what is the key issue? Are they preparing to try to understand the root causes of the conflict?

"In my opinion, Americans are still far from openly and comprehensively acknowledging the true root causes of the conflict. But I won't claim that this is 100% impossible.

Nowadays, they might propose to us a scheme similar to 'Minsk Agreement 3.0' or something akin to the Korean model (and so on).

Izvestia: There is another view: Kellogg proposed freezing the conflict along the contact line. Which view will prevail in the White House, and will this threaten a split within the Trump team?

"Initially, there was no consensus on the Ukraine issue. However, I doubt Kellogg can make decisions. To a large extent, he seems more like Trump's media enforcer than the person deciding Trump's Ukraine policy.

Izvestia: Are they absolutely unwilling to listen to our opinions? Could it be that in the negotiations, they simply don't understand each other's motives, thinking the other side is lying or something like that? Isn't this a matter of diplomatic professionalism?

"They are absolutely unwilling to accommodate us. They want to save face and extricate themselves from the conflict with a result favorable to them.

Given that the United States itself initiated these military actions, this is a daunting task.

For the latest news and all the important content regarding the Ukraine peace talks, please follow the author for more information.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494549880094999076/

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's own views. Please express your attitude by using the [like/dislike] buttons below.