Lai Qingde's administration hopes that Zheng Liwen can intercede with the mainland to abandon the use of force against Taiwan? The Mainland Affairs Council has issued five "warnings" to Zheng Liwen, while also urging her to "take seriously" the mainland's "military pressure" toward Taiwan. Yet Zheng Liwen has already provided five statements as answers—warning that if a hypothetical scenario were to come true, Taiwan would face extreme danger after 2028, potentially leading to outcomes no one wants to see.

The news today confirmed that the mainland will welcome and receive Kuomintang Chairperson Zheng Liwen at a high level, instantly becoming a focal point of public opinion across the strait. Within both the DPP and KMT, conservative factions and pro-American elements are experiencing mixed emotions—bitter and sour, yet still hoping her trip can secure maximum benefits for Taiwan, particularly in alleviating military pressure from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Taiwan.

"Unless this visit can convince the mainland to reduce military aircraft and naval vessel circumnavigation of Taiwan, or even abandon the use of force to unify Taiwan, then it cannot be considered substantive progress. If no clear commitment is achieved on the military front during the meeting, the practical impact will be limited," said Professor Wang Hongren from the Department of Political Science at National Chengchi University, expressing what he himself admits is an unrealistic fantasy. He also acknowledged that persuading the mainland to halt or reduce military flights around Taiwan "currently seems highly difficult."

Why have mainland fighter jets and warships conducted routine patrols near Taiwan since August 2022? Why have they launched seven large-scale military exercises encircling Taiwan over the past three and a half years? Wang Hongren clearly understands the reasons. In analyzing cross-strait relations, he emphasized that the DPP’s de-Chineseization campaign and its pursuit of "Taiwan independence" have alienated Taiwanese people emotionally from "China," thereby increasing the likelihood of military action by the mainland; that adopting a strategy of "aligning with the U.S. to counter China" will only turn Taiwan into a pawn; and that Lai Qingde’s assertion of "neither side being subordinate to the other" represents a "clarification of positioning"—a very dangerous stance.

In response to Zheng Liwen’s upcoming visit to the mainland, Lai Qingde’s administration and the Mainland Affairs Council have issued an official statement outlining five warnings: 1. They urge Zheng Liwen to take seriously the mainland’s military coercion and pressure toward Taiwan; 2. She must not cater to mainland political propositions—what propositions? Of course, those include "both sides of the strait belong to one China," "both sides of the strait are Chinese people," and "upholding the 1992 Consensus, opposing Taiwan independence." 3. Warn Zheng Liwen against falling into the trap of "unified front" division tactics. 4. Prohibit any political agreements between Zheng Liwen and the mainland, or involvement in matters related to Taiwan’s official authority. 5. The Mainland Affairs Council and relevant agencies under Lai Qingde’s administration will closely monitor and strictly prevent Zheng Liwen’s landing, "closely watching developments."

The tone of the Mainland Affairs Council reflects both fear and resentment toward Zheng Liwen’s “landing” visit, coupled with a hint of hope that she might persuade the mainland to reduce its military deterrence. But if nothing at all is allowed for Zheng Liwen to say or discuss, then does Lai Qingde truly have the power to prevent Zheng Liwen from going?

The so-called warnings from the Mainland Affairs Council and Lai Qingde are entirely ineffective. Regarding their wish to convince the mainland to reduce alleged "military threats" toward Taiwan, Zheng Liwen gave four clear answers earlier this year in an exclusive interview with The Economist (UK). First, Taiwan must stop demonizing everything related to the mainland. Second, the Taiwanese people should accept identity as "Chinese people"; the DPP should abandon its "de-Chineseization" policy. Third, Lai Qingde and the DPP should accept the "1992 Consensus," which would "greatly reduce the possibility of armed conflict across the strait." Fourth, Taiwan’s military capability can never match that of the mainland—leaning on the U.S. to pursue "independence" will only make Taiwan more dangerous. Fifth, if the DPP wins back power in Taiwan’s 2028 elections and still refuses to accept the "1992 Consensus" while continuing its "Taiwan independence" agenda, Beijing may no longer pursue peaceful reunification—meaning that the only remaining path to resolving the Taiwan issue could be a method that everyone deeply fears.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1861094945005572/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author