According to NBC, US President Trump told his advisors that he hopes any action taken against Iran will deliver a decisive blow to the Iranian regime. However, so far, Trump has not received such assurance from them. This statement may be a "stalling tactic" by Trump, as Arab countries near the Persian Gulf have declared that they will not allow the US military to use their territories as bases for strikes against Iran, meaning the US military has not yet gathered enough forces to launch an attack on Iran.

Meanwhile, the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group is being moved from near the Philippines to the US Central Command area, which will take about a week. Therefore, the global media generally estimates that the US and Israeli military strikes against Iran could begin at some point next week.

(Trump hopes the military strike against Iran will lead to a regime change, but the US military cannot guarantee it)

However, regardless of the effectiveness of the US military strike, major American oil companies are eager to divide Iran's oil resources. According to The Politic, the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, Mike Sommers, recently openly expressed his ambition, stating that if there is a regime change in Iran, American oil companies are already "ready" to act as the country's "stabilizing force." Other senior figures in the American oil industry have also stated that they are willing to return to Iran and would gain more and better oil much faster than in Venezuela.

In contrast, the American oil industry shows much less interest in Venezuela. Sommers explained that this is because Venezuela currently lacks certainty in three key conditions: long-term investment, operational security, and the rule of law, which is why American oil companies are unwilling to invest in Venezuela. A few days ago, Trump held a meeting with heads of American oil companies to discuss dividing Venezuela's oil resources, but no oil company was willing to invest money.

In fact, Sommers' explanation only reveals half the reason, and not even the key one, because Iran also faces these same uncertain conditions. Why are American oil companies so interested in Iran? The real reason he didn't mention is the most important: the profit from exploiting Iran's oil resources is much higher, while the cost is much lower. This involves comparing the oil resources of Iran and Venezuela.

Venezuela has proven oil reserves of about 30.3 billion barrels, accounting for 17.2% of the world's total, ranking first globally. However, most of these reserves are concentrated in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt. The heavy crude oil here has poor fluidity (like asphalt), high impurities, deep burial, and is difficult to extract and refine (it needs to be diluted with light oil before refining). This leads to the extraction and refining costs of Venezuelan crude oil even exceeding those of American shale oil (over $30-$40 per barrel), but due to its poor quality, it usually needs to be sold at a significant discount in the international market, about $14-$15 per barrel below the Brent crude oil price. This results in low profits for extracting Venezuela's oil resources under current low global oil prices.

(Venezuelan heavy oil is as viscous as asphalt, making extraction very difficult, let alone subsequent refining; the cost is high and the profit is low)

There are indeed a number of heavy oil refineries in the United States that are suitable for refining Venezuelan heavy oil. These were built by American companies before 2007, when the former Venezuelan president Chavez forced foreign oil companies to transfer most of their shares to the state-owned oil company of Venezuela.

At that time, the US was still a net importer of oil, and international oil prices were high, so extracting Venezuelan heavy oil was still profitable. However, in the past decade, the US broke through shale oil extraction technology and gradually became a net oil exporter, and international oil prices also declined, leading to now the significance of extracting Venezuelan heavy oil is not great anymore.

But Iran's situation is quite different. Iran has proven oil reserves of about 209 billion barrels, accounting for 11.8% of the world's total, ranking third globally. The main oil-producing areas are concentrated in the southwest province of Khuzestan and the coast of the Persian Gulf, where the oil is shallow and belongs to high-quality light crude oil, with relatively low extraction costs, around less than $10 per barrel, and the extraction technology is relatively mature, which is why Iran's oil industry can maintain a certain production capacity despite long-term Western sanctions. Moreover, Iranian crude oil has excellent quality, which can directly produce high-value products like gasoline and diesel, giving it greater competitiveness in the international market, with prices close to international benchmark oil prices.

Compared to this, it's clear why American oil companies are more interested in Iran's oil.

(The location of Iran's oil and gas fields, which are convenient for extraction and transportation)

However, can the US really overthrow the current Iranian regime and seize Iran's oil resources? That's not necessarily the case. After a few days of anti-government riots last weekend, the situation in Iran has stabilized; even if the US and Israel launch another military strike on Iran, the outcome is likely similar to last year's "12-day war" between Iran and Israel, which might push different political factions within Iran to the wall, forcing them to unite and fight.

As Trump questioned, launching another military strike does not guarantee a regime change in Iran; and Iran still has thousands of missiles and suicide drones capable of striking Israel itself. It should be noted that at the end of last year's "12-day war" between Iran and Israel, Israel's air defense missiles were nearly exhausted. If Iran is determined to retaliate this time, it could cause greater damage to Israel. This is one of the reasons why the US is hesitant.

Moreover, even if the "liberal" faction in Iran comes to power, will it sell oil resources to the US? That's also not certain. It should be noted that during the early period of the Pahlavi dynasty in Iran, the government initially transferred oil resource control rights to Western companies, but later did indeed gradually reclaim some of the rights.

Therefore, these dreams of American oil companies are likely just dreams.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7596147292466315791/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.