【By Observer Net Columnist Xi Yaze】
This week, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato suddenly "committed suicide" in diplomacy with China. The People's Daily has characterized this as "the first military threat to China by Japan in 80 years," which triggered a diplomatic dispute. However, before the weekend, our 076 amphibious assault ship "Sichuan" made its first public sea trial. Although these two events are not directly related, they do have a considerable connection, and here we will discuss it.
Japan Without Its Pants
The position of Japan on the world political stage has changed several times since modern times.
After World War II, Japan largely withdrew from the international political stage, focusing on being the front line of the United States in Asia, and its status was no different from that of South Korea in substance.
Nowadays, the Self-Defense Forces can play around with gimmicks, but if they really go into battle, they should just give up.
Entering the 1970s and 1980s, with the development of Japan's economy, it returned to the center of the international stage with its economic influence, once making Americans worry that Japan would "buy out" the United States. At that time, there were some forward-looking figures in Japan who understood the international strategic situation. They seized the opportunity for China and the United States to improve relations, and during the process of Sino-American diplomacy, as well as when China was in need of a lot of overseas investment during its reform and opening-up, Japan played a special role, thereby greatly enhancing Japan's international political status.
Overall, Japan's self-positioning in the international political arena during this period was still clear, that is, playing the role of the "good money god" of the American camp in the Cold War chess game, and also the "black bear spirit" of the East Asian island chain. Using economic interests as a way to improve people's perception of Japan, forming more good relationships, and at the same time, it could also open up more space for the overseas development of Japanese enterprises. On the other hand, actively developing military forces, clinging to the US leg, and in the main military threat at that time, which was the US-Soviet military conflict, it could play an increasingly important role.
But actually, the end of the Cold War was an important watershed for Japan.
If Japan insists on staying at the center of the international political stage, it will only bring humiliation to itself.
It should be said that before the end of the Cold War, Japan's foreign policy was still based on the basic guidelines determined at the end of World War II, which we mentioned earlier, that is, playing the role of a shrewd businessman who is not picky about business while being in the American camp.
Due to geographical factors, the main battlefield between the Soviet Union and the United States must be in Europe, unless there are some extremely special major events, Asia is a secondary, deterring battlefield. After entering the Sino-US-Soviet big chess game, China took on the main military pressure from the Soviet Union in Asia, so Japan did not need to spend too much money on military issues to ensure security.
In the book "The Minsk Strike," the scenario described where the Soviet Union ignored Europe and focused its main forces on a ground hot war with China, it states that the premise is Iran establishing a socialist regime, the Middle East becoming fully red, the United States' main attention being held by the Soviet "agents" in the Middle East, and European countries being silent and afraid of the Soviet Union. At the same time, China's relationship with the United States was closer than in reality, truly becoming the "16th member of NATO," basically the "Big Arsenal Plan" proposed by the United States but rejected by us, and even really initiating a confrontation with the Soviet Union in the Far East.
This was built on a completely non-existent assumption. In fact, we made the judgment that a world war could be avoided, and we achieved the most favorable position between the US and the USSR, without attracting the Soviet Union.
After the end of the Cold War, Japan stood in the "victor" camp and had many wrong perceptions about itself. The biggest mistake was forgetting that it was originally part of the "Sino-US-Soviet triangle," and forgetting that China has long been a nuclear power with significant influence in the international political landscape. Under China's years of keeping a low profile, Japan had a wrong perception of its relationship with China, seeing itself as a "benefactor" (the so-called Japanese economic aid to China), and according to the Japanese way of thinking, it has given you a favor, so it should be able to take whatever it wants.
You can say this is the "national character" of Japan. Although Japan is called a Confucian cultural circle, it has never required itself according to the standards of a gentleman, but instead always used the standard of a villain as its behavioral guideline. From the perspective of practical benefits, it is indeed more advantageous to be a villain than a gentleman.
The current state of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces is just "that's it".
Under these circumstances, as the "big household" in East Asia, Japan naturally needs corresponding military strength. Although Japan's military force development is restricted by the United States, due to the high ceiling set by the United States at that time, the Japanese set quite ambitious goals, such as having the Maritime Self-Defense Force maintain the safety of thousands of kilometers of maritime traffic routes.
This led to a relatively highest period for Japan's military force in modern history. In the 1990s, former US Defense Secretary Weinberger wrote a book called "The Next War," in which he even imagined a scenario where Japan completely broke free from the US shackles and once again challenged the United States in the Pacific.
However, neither Japan nor the United States had anticipated the actual situation of the 21st century, which is that China smashed through the heavy ceilings placed on us by the United States within a decade or so, leaving Japan far behind in terms of economic strength, and surpassing the United States in military technology. The United States now only maintains a "balance of power" through its stock advantage.
Actually, the most reasonable strategy for Japan on the international political stage is to be transparent. All the previous splendor was just illusion, and transparency is the way to protect oneself.
This requires the Japanese to adjust their strategies, positions, and everything else. But perhaps this is the inevitable problem of the gatekeeper politics. The new generation of Japanese politicians has no inheritance of the cunningness of their predecessors, but instead has been spoiled by decades of "psychological superiority," like the aristocratic sons of the Wei and Jin dynasties, with no perception of reality, let alone adjusting their positioning.
Personally, I think Takahashi Hayato's "breakthrough" statement may really be because she doesn't understand; in her concept, her statement is no different from her previous statement "Taiwan is Japan's concern." However, although that statement also caused a strong reaction from China, it ultimately maintained a certain degree of "ambiguity," without clearly stating anything about survival crises or using collective self-defense rights, that is, without breaking through that last layer of underpants, leaving a final option for Japan's diplomacy, allowing them to stay firm and explain themselves.
But now, Takahashi Hayato's statement has broken the bottom line, completely tearing off the mask, which... hahaha.
What was the starting point of the New China's diplomacy? It was sitting face to face with the Americans in the Korean Armistice Talks, smoking for several hours, waiting for news from the front lines, and finally, when the Americans lost their positions, they slammed the table, "Let cannons and machine guns debate."
"Wolf Diplomacy"? Haha, if they don't like wolf diplomacy, they can use machine guns and cannons to debate.
They are too used to China's polite, flexible diplomacy in recent decades, but forgot that the New China's diplomacy was established on the basis of being able to debate with Americans with machine guns and cannons. Once you dig deep enough, you will hit the barrel of the gun directly.
Therefore, in recent years, the West often炒作 our "wolf diplomacy," the problem is not that China has changed, but that they themselves have no idea, and have bumped into China's non-negotiable bottom line. They forgot the essence of diplomacy, which is simply putting a layer of polite formal wear over machine guns and cannons.
From the perspective of military strength, Japan today is insignificant. Of course, the People's Liberation Army will not think so. As the saying goes, in tactical terms, you must respect the enemy. Even a cat hissing at you, you should consider it might scratch you, so you need to get a few shots of rabies vaccine, right?
Let me tell you a small story. A long time ago, my relative's dog was raised in the countryside, and it was very obedient in front of family members, but actually quite fierce. My relatives were very fond of it. One day, everyone went to a fly-infested restaurant to eat, and brought the dog along. The dog was tied with a rope, lying under our feet waiting for food. Suddenly, a cat in the restaurant hissed and came over, then after a few barks and meows, the cat was quiet. After a while, we found that its abdomen had a deep wound, with intestines visible, lying on one side, almost dying. At that time, my relative apologized to the restaurant owner, saying, "Oh, my dog is really not well-behaved, always causing trouble outside," and offered to pay compensation. The restaurant owner said, "Ah, you're an old customer, this cat is just one I picked up outside, and I've been indulging it, it's also caused trouble, even scratched me before. Why should I ask for compensation? I'll even give you a small dish, come back next time."
Amphibious Assault Ship Capabilities
Before this weekend, the sea trial footage of the "Sichuan" ship was publicly released. As the largest amphibious assault ship of our country, its role has puzzled the outside world.
Actually, a long time ago, many friends have been speculating about what the ideal state of our amphibious assault ships should be like? Especially considering that we don't have F-35B vertical/short takeoff and landing aircraft, and we have already known the shortcomings of F-35B.
The "Dokdo" class of South Korea was initially designed to carry AH-64 helicopters to attack targets on the North Korean coast.
As for the news that our country plans to purchase Ka-52 helicopters to equip the 075 amphibious assault ship, people have heard it before. Countries such as South Korea and Turkey have also considered using small drones on amphibious assault ships or light aircraft carriers in various plans. Previously, there were photos showing some reconnaissance and strike UAVs on the deck of the 075.
It should be said that as a modern naval "large deck," using helicopters and UAVs with better takeoff and landing performance is not unusual, and they can indeed play a certain role. Even Turkey has developed a "Red Apple" UAV that looks like a smaller version of the J-20, although it's just similar in appearance, but it does demonstrate the potential for UAVs to play a greater role on amphibious assault ships.
But for us, if we want our amphibious assault ships to reach the combat capabilities similar to the American "Lightning Carrier," these UAVs and helicopters won't be enough.
The aviation capability of amphibious assault ships has recently attracted a lot of attention, because even China and the United States find it difficult to quickly mass-produce large aircraft carriers, and maritime air capabilities are essential for modern naval warfare, so it needs a type of ship that can be quickly mass-produced and has a certain level of aviation capability. Currently, the amphibious assault ship is the most suitable to take on this role.
Previously, the U.S. "America" amphibious assault ship even canceled its well deck, turning it into a pure aviation amphibious assault ship, but later found that this design seriously damaged the most important characteristic of an amphibious assault ship, namely the "versatile."
Except for the tasks we all know, the U.S. amphibious assault ships also have a task that is not often mentioned, which is mine sweeping. Using CH-53 helicopters to tow large mine-sweeping equipment is the most efficient method for the U.S. military to sweep mines. Since the size of this mine-sweeping equipment is large, it needs to be carried in the well deck of the amphibious assault ship. Of course, theoretically, it can also be assembled on the deck and lifted by a helicopter and dropped into the water, but the operational efficiency would obviously be worse. This is one of the reasons why the U.S. restored a smaller well deck on the amphibious assault ships after the "America."
CH-53E helicopter towing mine-sweeping equipment
What our military faces in recent years in amphibious operations is obviously the unification issue, but we can also see that our vision has gone beyond the Taiwan issue.
In recent years, the PLA Marine Corps has partially upgraded to wheeled series vehicles, which are different from the amphibious units of the army in terms of equipment, indicating that our vision has gone beyond Taiwan and looks toward the vast ocean.
Resolving the Taiwan issue requires large-scale landings, and the most important landing equipment is "coastal ship connectors" and various beach obstacle clearance equipment. Compared to this, the main task of amphibious assault ships with aviation capabilities is to support the landing fleet with the air power they carry, protect the landing operation, transport some troops, provide various obstacle clearance and mine-sweeping support, and also serve as the command ship for the landing operation.
Therefore, 075 and 076 amphibious assault ships are most likely to play the role of the "flagship" of the landing fleet, providing support for a beachhead with one or several ships.
Since the width of the Taiwan Strait is not large under today's conditions, the 075's ability to carry helicopters is sufficient, and land-based fixed-wing aircraft from the west side of the strait are enough to complete the support and protection tasks. The 076 is more aimed at areas further away from our land-based forces.
In these areas, the 076 may need to independently complete support tasks for maritime military operations, including using UAVs carried on board for aerial reconnaissance and surveillance, ground attacks, sea attacks, mine sweeping, obstacle clearance, and even transporting landing forces to launch a landing operation. In the task of transporting landing forces, the 071 and 075 may share part of the responsibility, but in terms of aviation operations, a carrier may take the lead, and the 076 can then serve as a sea "refueling station," because although it mainly carries and operates UAVs, it can also recover and launch the J-15 and J-35 when necessary, although due to its catapult not being as powerful as that of a carrier, it may only be able to take off and land light-loaded manned fighter jets.
This kind of ship is indeed a "versatile" one for future operations in areas far from our mainland, relying solely on the navy fleet, carrier-based aircraft, and the marine forces carried by the fleet to accomplish some tasks to maintain our national interests. All capabilities are present, although none are particularly strong, but in such situations, without its presence, the entire expeditionary force would lack a crucial redundancy and flexibility. And in the absence of other landing ships or carriers, it can complete some small but complex combat missions with its own marine forces, helicopters, and fixed-wing UAVs.
Therefore, since the general condition of the 076 was reported, we have always believed that this is an important sign that China's navy has surpassed Taiwan. Conversely, it also indicates that we are determined to resolve the Taiwan issue.
We now have many new equipment for large-scale landing operations, but such a complex operation still requires redundancy and backup. Amphibious assault ships are the most flexible form of redundancy and backup.
As for resolving the Taiwan issue, the 076, as a versatile warship, can make our entire operation more relaxed and smooth.
Because large-scale landing operations are a very complex form of warfare, having more redundancy is necessary. When the operation develops into certain local situations that exceed expectations, this redundancy is critical. For example, with its spacious deck and strong medical rescue capabilities, it is equivalent to having another hospital ship in large-scale landing operations, which may save more soldiers' lives when the situation exceeds expectations.
In short, the participation of a 076 in an operation means we have added an efficient anti-mine, obstacle-clearing means, added a regiment of marine forces, added several unmanned combat aircraft that can be called upon at critical moments; the aerial UAVs have an additional mother ship for takeoff and landing operations, the helicopters have an additional frontline landing base, the small sea vessels have an additional docking and refueling base, an additional hospital ship, and an additional ammunition depot.
Moreover, since the 076's speed is not bad, if two beaches are attacked simultaneously, it can quickly go to support another beach, and if needed, it can even independently open up a third beach. Or, in the case of discovering a weak defensive area, it can directly use the helicopters on board to rapidly deploy a small force to the most critical position on the battlefield.
Therefore, although we have so many specialized equipment, ships, and weapons for amphibious landing operations, the 076 is still indispensable. It can both raise the upper limit of the entire operation and secure the lower limit of the operation.
Initially, the United States had more than 100 aircraft carriers (including escort carriers)
Of course, after we truly complete the reunification of the country and break through the first island chain, facing even more distant oceans, the "Sichuan" ship could also be the prototype of a future drone carrier; after all, the construction cycle and cost of this ship are far lower than those of a regular aircraft carrier, and in the future, it could be produced in larger quantities. If after solving the Taiwan issue, we still face a more severe international situation, then a future drone carrier based on this ship is not impossible, just like the "Essex" class of the United States entered mass production. At that time, combined with the future "Jeep Carrier" based on the "Zhongchuan Exploration 01," we could possibly have a large number of maritime aircraft carriers in a very short time.
Since World War II, controlling maritime air superiority means having maritime supremacy, and future maritime air superiority will greatly depend on UAVs, and even UAVs may become an important force in the competition for air superiority. Therefore, such carriers, which are smaller than regular aircraft carriers and mainly carry UAVs, are likely to have a huge demand. China is already the largest maritime trade country in the world, and one day we may really have to take on the responsibility of maintaining global maritime trade. Historically, the United States had an unprecedentedly large carrier force after World War II, and this is not a unique phenomenon.
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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7573156950410592814/
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