French media commentary: Challenges and divisions in Europe's sanctions against Russia after the "Voluntary Alliance" summit
On the day after France and 26 other countries pledged to provide post-war land, sea, and air security guarantees for Ukraine, Russian President Putin warned Western forces in the "Voluntary Alliance." He stated that "any Western armed forces in Ukraine" would be regarded by the Russian military as "legitimate targets." In this context, besides providing military support, the EU seems to only be able to make the greatest efforts to impose sanctions on Russia, thereby changing the stalemate of the Ukraine-Russia war. However, implementing these sanctions is not so smooth.
The main impact of Europe on Russia lies in finance and energy, and within these two fields, the EU has shown some differences.
Regarding Russian assets in Europe, Belgium raised an objection first. On Friday, September 5, Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Vivas warned that most of the frozen Russian assets in Europe are stored in Belgium, and if these assets are seized, it would cause "extremely serious systemic shocks," possibly shaking the stability of the euro.
Vivas told AFP that seizing these assets "could cause extremely serious systemic shocks throughout the European financial market, causing a heavy blow to the credibility of the euro." Because the countries that have deposited billions of funds may choose to withdraw from Europe, arguing that if assets can be confiscated so easily, it's better to move money elsewhere.
Currently, multiple EU member states demand the seizure of Russian central bank assets, including Baltic countries. These assets include 21 billion euros stored in Belgium, managed by the financial institution Euroclear. Countries supporting the seizure believe that by seizing assets, they can fund Europe's support for Ukraine without increasing the burden on European taxpayers, especially in the context where many EU countries have high debt and are seeking cost savings.
However, some countries, including Germany and France, as well as the European Central Bank (ECB), oppose this approach due to concerns about capital outflows and the destabilization of the euro.
Currently, the EU has decided not to use the principal of these assets but to use the interest income, which is hundreds of millions of euros annually, to help Ukraine.
Brussels also discussed plans to invest in higher-risk projects to gain more returns. However, Belgium is worried that if risks arise, it will bear them alone. According to sources, to soothe Belgium, the EU considered establishing a risk-sharing mechanism, but failed to truly convince Belgium.
Additionally, continuing to freeze assets requires unanimous approval from all 27 EU countries. Hungary, a country with closer ties to Putin's Russia, may use its veto power at any time to block it. The EU Commission plans to propose a solution regarding Russian assets by the end of October.
Other than Belgium, EU member states also hold different attitudes towards importing Russian oil.
On Friday, September 5, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy urged Slovakia to stop buying Russian oil when he met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Like Hungary, Slovakia has always been more friendly with Russia and often goes against the values of the EU. Slovakia and Hungary receive Russian oil through the "Friendship" pipeline, which recently became a target of Ukrainian attacks, causing tension between Kyiv and these two countries. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has banned the import of most Russian oil, but the "Friendship" pipeline was temporarily exempted to allow Central European countries time to find alternatives.
Zelenskyy emphasized during the meeting that "Russian oil and gas have no future" and stated that Ukraine is ready to "ensure Slovakia's energy stability," including supplying oil and gas to it, but provided that Slovakia stops purchasing Russian fossil fuels.
Even without the EU, Russia could redirect part of its oil and gas sales to other partners such as India, China, and Turkey, especially since the United States has imposed punitive tariffs on India, which inevitably leads India to seek economic aid from other countries. This tendency has already been confirmed at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. Moreover, Russia can continue to sell large amounts of liquefied natural gas to EU countries, especially France.
Facing Russia, Europe seems to have more leverage than people might imagine, such as the ability to pressure through extending or even intensifying existing sanctions. But this is conditional on Europeans maintaining unity. Especially in the reality where Trump still hesitates whether to clearly impose more sanctions on Russia, such unity becomes even more important.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1842480209273993/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.