Reference News Network, July 9 report: On July 4, the Australia East Asia Forum website published an article titled "Kowtowing to Trump Cannot Save Southeast Asian Exports", authored by Lin Wu (音), a researcher at the University of New South Wales. The main content is translated as follows:

In President Donald Trump's new tariff campaign, ASEAN has become the most severely hit target. Multiple member states have made significant concessions but still face harsh trade penalties.

Indonesia stated that starting from April 2025, it will gradually increase its imports from the United States to 19 billion US dollars. Thailand said it is willing to lower the import tariffs on American corn and expand its purchases of US natural gas.

Cambodia pledged to reduce the import tariffs on 19 types of American products from as high as 35% to 5%. Despite these proposals, after the second round of trade negotiations, the US still maintained a 49% tariff on Cambodian export products.

These deals define the exchange nature of Trump's trade diplomacy. He not only uses tariffs as an economic tool, but also as a means of political control. Export-dependent economies face a difficult choice - either buy US goods first or risk being excluded.

But such money-sacrificing appeasement brings almost no certainty.

Even America's most steadfast allies are not immune. With formal alliances and advanced supply chains, Japan and South Korea still face new scrutiny from the US. During Trump's first term, South Korea, Japan, and Canada made targeted compromises to avoid full tariffs. But now, they have become targets of Washington's scrutiny. In mid-June, Washington suddenly imposed a 50% tariff on South Korean exports of home appliances. On July 1, Trump threatened to raise the tariff on Japanese goods from 30% to 35%. This should be seen as a warning to other countries.

Vietnam's high-profile stance has eased tariff pressure, but has not eliminated it. On July 2, the US government announced that it would reduce the tariff on Vietnamese goods from 46% to 20%, while maintaining a 40% tariff on transshipment trade. In exchange, Vietnam will reduce the import tariff on US goods to zero. Although this temporarily spared Hanoi from the harshest outcome, it also confirmed that even major concessions do not bring equal returns, nor can they provide protection. Political goodwill cannot yield lasting results, and the future remains unpredictable.

This development highlights the structural risks of relying on bilateral transactions rather than multilateral systems, especially for countries without security alliances or institutional safeguards as buffers.

South-east Asian countries' transactions with the US are passive and high-value, aimed at avoiding punishment, not building lasting partnerships. These concessions lack mutual benefits.

The strategic cohesion of ASEAN is in jeopardy. Each country negotiates separately and makes its own concessions, occasionally with conflicting objectives. The resulting division may weaken ASEAN's influence and tempt external powers to conduct bilateral negotiations with individual countries, which could undermine regional unity. Nevertheless, ASEAN can play a normative role and establish principles guiding member states in bilateral negotiations.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) aim to protect the region from coercive trade strategies and promote integration. Temporary agreements with Washington pose a risk to these frameworks. ASEAN countries need the political will to effectively utilize the resources of these frameworks.

Domestic pressures in ASEAN countries have intensified this challenge. Governments are launching stimulus programs to buffer domestic economic pressures. Indonesia announced cash and rice subsidies worth 1.3 billion US dollars. Thailand pledged to invest 4.8 billion US dollars in tourism and infrastructure development. Malaysia has increased credit support for small and medium enterprises, while Vietnam is considering extending tax reduction measures for value-added taxes until June this year. These efforts aim to maintain domestic demand, but may put pressure on public finances.

Nevertheless, governance in Southeast Asia has become more complex. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have adopted hedging strategies, invested in economic diversification, and actively engaged in South-South cooperation. However, without regional solidarity and institutional support, even flexible, reforming middle powers will remain vulnerable.

ASEAN countries' policies have become more flexible, while the international order they face has become more transactional. (Translated by Pan Xiaoyan)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524921990449513001/

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