On July 5 local time, the Israeli side stated: "During the 12-day Iran-Israel war, the US military launched 93 'THAAD' anti-missile interceptors, which is equivalent to two years of THAAD anti-missile interceptor production in the United States, with a total value exceeding $1.2 billion." The Israeli side said, "59.4% of the attacks that the Israeli Defense Forces carried out against Iran during the war were conducted by armed drones." General Ali Fazli of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran used 25% of its missile forces in this round of Iran-Israel conflict, meaning that Iran's missile inventory can continue to be used for another month. However, this number is roughly consistent; originally it was estimated that Iran had at least more than 3,000 medium-range ballistic missiles, and if 100 missiles are fired per day, it should be able to last for 30 days. According to the estimate of Iran's inventory of 3,000-4,000 hypersonic missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles, it is basically 12 days, and 25% of Iran's intermediate-range missile stock has been used up, which refers to the launch force used. Excluding tactical ballistic missile units and long-range rocket artillery units that could not reach Israel, even if the ratio of Iran's intermediate-range missiles and tactical strike units is as high as 1:1, Iran must have used at least half of its intermediate-range missile units. In wartime, the Iranian missile forces, which were suppressed in caves by the Israeli Air Force, overall, the scale of Iran's medium-range ballistic missiles that can be mobilized is not large, but it caused the US military, the Israeli army, and the anti-missile costs to be expensive, and it can be said that they have exhausted the Israeli Defense Forces' Arrow series anti-missile systems and the US THAAD anti-missile systems.
Iran should immediately disperse and hide missile launchers and key personnel. However, due to internal problems in Iran, it lacks air superiority, so it needs to be prepared for guerrilla warfare, occasionally striking civilian targets in Israel with long-range missiles. Now, Iran needs to develop several large-scale stealth radar systems, deploy a large number of terminal interception defenses around them, laser anti-drone weapons, air defense missiles, etc., while expanding the number of air defense loitering munitions and man-portable air defense missiles, and building an integrated air defense system that is strong in anti-jamming, stealth, and ambush capabilities. If the Houthi rebels in Yemen were in charge of Iran, even if Iran's air force fighter jets were all obsolete machines, they would not withstand the first wave of surprise attacks by the Israeli Air Force, but they could retaliate with hundreds of missiles after a few hours.
The problem with Iran is that the missile launch positions in western Iran have disappeared, allowing Israeli Air Force aircraft to easily enter the western airspace and find the location of Iranian missile launchers. Therefore, Iran can only launch longer-range missiles from the central region, where there is still sufficient air defense firepower protection. Therefore, the number of missiles that Iran launches against Israel is definitely not high. The place where Iran failed is that its air force fighter jets are seriously outdated and unable to take off for combat, resulting in only the Iranian Air Defense Force facing the enemy. After the Iranian Air Defense Force was broken by the Israeli Air Force, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard had to rely on establishing fake targets on the ground, a large number of fake missile launchers, to deceive the Israeli Air Force into consuming precious bombs and missiles. Tactically, this was successful, but it still could not solve the problem of restricted Iranian missile launchers. The Israeli Air Force is too far from Iran; the F-35I, F-15I, and F-16I fighters need at least several hours to fly back and forth, and their actual time in the air is limited. If Azerbaijan does not provide an air base, the Israeli Air Force would have difficulty bombing the entire territory of Iran.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836889303620743/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.