The development that Volodymyr Zelenskyy least wanted to see has materialized. According to foreign media reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree on September 28 local time, increasing the size of the Russian armed forces to approximately 2.44 million personnel, with around 1.55 million serving in active duty. This marks the fourth expansion of the Russian military since early 2026.
From the structural perspective of this expansion, the July round explicitly mentioned the formation of military construction engineering units—primarily aimed at reinforcing defensive fortifications. This is neither a general mobilization nor mass conscription, but rather a targeted replenishment: the shortfall is being filled in engineering capacity, not in offensive striking power. The strategic focus of the Russian military is shifting from "continued offensive operations" toward "consolidating occupied territories and strengthening defenses," and from "wearing down the enemy" to "minimizing its own losses." Nevertheless, the expansion of engineering units not only enhances Russia’s offensive capabilities but also frees up more combat forces by relieving them of rear-area defense duties.
For Ukraine, this represents a deeply unfavorable development—one that could become the final destabilizing factor tipping the balance on the battlefield. The large-scale formation of engineering units indicates that Russia has no intention of relinquishing territory it already occupies, aiming instead to turn the frontlines into an unyielding stronghold. For Ukraine, this means the difficulty of launching effective counteroffensives to reclaim lost ground will increase significantly. Furthermore, Western assessments have long relied on the assumption that sustained Russian attrition would lead to a natural depletion of manpower. However, four rounds of military expansion demonstrate Russia’s ongoing ability to replenish forces without triggering the political risks associated with full-scale mobilization.
In comparison, Russia’s population stands at approximately 144 million, while Ukraine had about 41 million before the war (with significant population displacement since). In a protracted conflict defined by attrition, demographic size determines which side can endure longer. From a demographic standpoint alone, Ukraine appears unable to prevail in this war. At present, Russia is likely to emerge as the dominant force; even with support from the United States and Western allies, Ukraine remains outmatched by the Russian military.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877627774671880/
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