【By Bear Chao Ran, Observer Net】As a Southeast Asian country, Indonesia's efforts to deepen its trade relations with the United States while maintaining close economic ties with China now seem to be facing a test.

According to a report by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post on January 20, a leaked document revealed that the U.S. has tied lowering tariffs to Indonesia's purchase of American-made maritime surveillance drones, which are used for missions in waters near the South China Sea. Analysts point out that this development highlights Indonesia's "balance dilemma," as more and more U.S. trade negotiations become intertwined with security and geopolitical factors, and Indonesia is trying to maintain strategic flexibility.

The report states that the leaked Indonesian government document, whose content was disclosed by Singapore's English newspaper The Straits Times, shows that the U.S. proposed that if Indonesia agreed to purchase the American drone system and publicly announced the procurement decision, the U.S. would lower the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indonesian goods.

Currently, Indonesia and the U.S. are still negotiating a trade agreement aimed at reducing tariff rates from the previously threatened 32% to 19%. However, due to Indonesia's failure to meet the initial 2025 end-of-year target, the negotiation progress has been slower than expected.

July 9, 2025, Jakarta, Indonesia. Previously, President Trump imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesia. IC Photo

In response to the media reports, the Indonesian Ministry of Defense said, "No such request has been received yet."

On January 15, the Indonesian news magazine TEMPO website reported that Indonesian Defense Ministry Spokesman Rico Sirait said, "So far, there have been no specific discussions or decisions regarding the purchase of maritime surveillance drones."

Sirait said that Indonesia's goal is to enhance maritime surveillance capabilities, and drones can be used for this purpose. "However, the procurement of defense equipment has always been adjusted according to the government's needs, capabilities, and policies, not determined by external interests." He added that the Indonesian Ministry of Defense is currently "investigating" the information mentioned in the report.

In fact, The Straits Times' report last week also mentioned that in this leaked document, the U.S. added other clauses that could complicate the negotiations, including requiring Indonesia to limit the use of Chinese technology in its critical infrastructure.

Other reported requirements include expanding the bilateral security cooperation framework and requiring Indonesia to consult with the U.S. before signing digital trade agreements with other countries.

This also reminds people of the recent pressure the U.S. exerted on Malaysia and Cambodia, urging these two Southeast Asian countries to accept so-called "poison pill" clauses related to China in trade agreements. In response, China has met with trade officials from Malaysia and Cambodia to clarify the issues.

Naturally, the U.S. later also tried to force Indonesia to accept the so-called "poison pill" clauses in the trade agreement, in order to "counter China's influence in Southeast Asia," but this move by the Trump administration caused dissatisfaction in Indonesia and was met with resistance from the Indonesian government.

A Indonesian government official said, "We do not agree with these clauses because they involve economic sovereignty." Another insider in the Indonesian government said that Indonesia considered the U.S. proposals too "unilateral" and therefore rejected the U.S. requests.

A third person familiar with the Indonesian government's views told the UK's Financial Times that, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia is concerned that accepting the "poison pill" clauses would lead to Indonesia losing its autonomy in dealings with other countries and being bound by conditions imposed by the U.S.

Photo of U.S. President Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo, source material

The South China Morning Post pointed out that the leaked document has sparked concern about the increasing linkage between trade policy and broader strategic considerations. Analysts believe this dynamic is incompatible with Indonesia's long-standing principle of "free and active" foreign policy, which emphasizes strategic autonomy and avoids establishing formal military alliances.

Professor Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro of Gadjah Mada University's International Relations department said that the U.S. proposal for drones reflects the "interconnectedness of trade and geopolitics," as the U.S. aims to use this situation to enhance Indonesia's maritime defense capabilities by providing technologies compatible with the Western system, thereby securing a share of the defense industry market.

He also pointed out that the clause requiring "public disclosure of procurement decisions" also shows that the U.S. demands "more of a political signal about Indonesia's strategic direction" rather than just an economic transaction.

Alman Helvas Ali, a defense industry expert at Jakarta-based political and security consulting firm Marapi, said the U.S. may be worried about the increasingly close relationship between Indonesia under President Prabowo and countries seen as "U.S. competitors."

"The U.S. wants to pressure Indonesia to stay within its sphere of influence, rather than getting closer to China," he said. "Since President Prabowo took office, Indonesia's policies have shifted, getting closer to countries deemed 'competitors of the U.S.' such as China and Russia."

Despite this, Ali emphasized that Indonesia "should not be dictated by other countries in economic matters," and should freely engage in economic cooperation with other countries as long as it aligns with national interests.

Yuliantoro believes that the U.S. proposal "asks for too much."

"Both sides need to make selective compromises, achieving limited, symbolic, or technical concessions through negotiations, but not being strategically bound," he said: "If the U.S. insists on clear and must-be-publicly-announced clauses, given that Indonesia still has other options, the U.S. might suffer significant losses."

The South China Morning Post noted that under President Prabowo, Indonesia has been actively advancing the modernization of defense equipment and seeking cooperation with numerous suppliers.

On January 12, the Chief of the Pakistan Air Force, Babar, met with the Indonesian Minister of Defense Shafri in Islamabad. Reuters quoted a report saying that the two sides discussed a potential deal, including the sale of over 40 JF-17 "Thunder" fighter jets (known as "Jianglong" in China) and attack drones from Pakistan to Indonesia. Additionally, it was reported that Indonesia has restarted its cooperation agreement with South Korea, participating in the development of the KF-21 "Falcon" fighter jet.

Last year, Indonesia signed a contract to purchase 48 "Khan" fighter jets from Turkey; in 2022, Indonesia purchased 42 "Rafale" fighter jets from France, valued at $8.1 billion.

Susaningtyas Kertopati, a former Indonesian parliament member focused on defense affairs, said that the U.S. proposal may also include ground control stations and spare parts, along with technical transfers for mission systems and propulsion systems.

"We need drones for maritime surveillance as tools for early detection and warning of incursions into maritime boundaries, whether in territorial waters, exclusive economic zones, or continental shelves," she said.

Given Indonesia's diverse export markets and economic ties with China, analysts believe that Indonesia still has room for maneuver in its negotiations with the U.S.

"Indonesia does not participate in any military alliance, which actually provides it with flexibility to maintain its free and active foreign policy principles," Yuliantoro said: "For Indonesia, the key is to maintain strategic flexibility by accepting limited technical cooperation, without making explicit geopolitical commitments. The main challenge is not choosing between the U.S. and China, but ensuring that Indonesia is not forced to make such a choice."

Video screenshot of the "Jianglong" fighter jet production line shown by Pakistani TV

On November 14, 2023, Farhan Bokhari, a media person who had worked as a reporter for the Financial Times in Pakistan for 34 years, wrote a comment article in Nikkei Asia, pointing out that Pakistan has demonstrated the "value" of purchasing weapons from China — Chinese-made weapons are not only reasonably priced and of good quality, but more importantly, China does not impose "political pressure" on buyers during arms sales, unlike the U.S.

He recounted the "painful lessons" Pakistan suffered from the U.S. He explained that for decades, when the U.S. attempted to impose sanctions on Pakistan, even signed arms sales contracts would be arbitrarily breached, and when the U.S. needed help, it would use arms sales as a bargaining chip to approach Pakistan.

Because of this, Pakistan saw through the U.S.'s "fickle" nature and began seeking Chinese assistance to produce modern military equipment, including fighter jets. More than a decade later, the "Jianglong" fighter jet jointly developed by Pakistan and China not only achieved self-sufficiency but could also be exported for sale.

The article finally reminded Indonesian policymakers that the U.S. weapon supply policy has long been constrained by Washington's political agenda, and these "black histories" have seriously harmed the interests of buyer countries. If Indonesia wants to achieve diversification of its military equipment sources, this core issue must be clearly understood.

This article is an exclusive article from Observer Net, and it is not allowed to be reprinted without permission.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597432916708983334/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.