Reference Message Network reported on April 16th according to the report of Yomiuri Shimbun on April 15th, AUKUS is a "security framework" built by the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, which is one of the important multilateral cooperation mechanisms in the Indian-Pacific region, aiming to deal with regional threats. One of the main measures of AUKUS is to build nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, and the related plan is increasingly at risk of failure.

The reason why the nuclear submarine plan may encounter setbacks halfway through is mainly due to the "America First" security and trade policies implemented by the Trump administration of the United States.

According to the plan previously formulated by AUKUS, as the successor to the Collins-class conventional submarines, Australia will purchase three Virginia-class nuclear submarines from the United States in the early 2030s, and deploy two more if necessary. The UK will design and build new AUKUS-class nuclear submarines, which will be delivered to Australia in the late 2030s. By the early 2040s, the same class of nuclear submarines built with British help will enter service in Australia.

According to estimates by the Australian government, it will cost 368 billion Australian dollars (approximately 233.8 billion US dollars) over the next 30 years.

In occasions such as the defense ministers' meeting between the US and Australia held in February, the Trump administration showed its intention to continue promoting AUKUS cooperation. However, the UK and Australia are becoming increasingly worried. Specifically, for Ukraine and Europe, the Trump administration is distancing itself from them and exerting tariff pressure on trading partners that are economically and security close, and this attitude may have a negative impact on the nuclear submarine plan.

According to reports by The Times of London, member of the Senate Armed Services Committee's Maritime Forces Subcommittee, Cain pointed out that 35% of the steel and aluminum used by the United States to build submarines are imported from European countries including the UK and Canada.

In the future, if Trump increases tariffs and leads to rising material costs, the construction cost of nuclear submarines will inevitably increase further, and there is no possibility that the Australian government will modify the plan.

There are also voices within the United States pointing out that if the United States provides submarines to Australia, its deterrent power against China may weaken.

Experts in the U.S. military and others pointed out that even if the United States provides nuclear submarines to Australia, the possibility of Australia deploying nuclear submarines to respond to disputes in case of emergency situations in the region is very small. Security personnel in the United States emphasized: "As a strategy to maintain deterrence against China, building submarines for the U.S. Navy is the most realistic and appropriate option."

On the other hand, the UK House of Commons Defense Committee began an investigation into the current situation and challenges of AUKUS, including the nuclear submarine plan, citing "changes in the global geopolitical environment" this month. The Sydney Morning Herald published an editorial on the 9th stating that "the United States is no longer a reliable ally," suggesting that Australia should follow the UK and re-examine AUKUS.

US-UK-Australia military cooperation can be traced back to World War I, and the AUKUS framework symbolizing the military ties of the three countries now faces the crisis of "collapse". (Translated by Ma Xiaoyun)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493861682087723571/

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