Chen Jiadun, a so-called "China expert" who was once famous in the American media for selling the "China disintegration theory," has recently started giving advice to the United States again.

According to reports from Fox News and other media, recently, a Chinese-American named Runren, who calls himself an "expert on China issues," addressed the situation where the Trump administration initiated a trade war, and after China took countermeasures, the U.S. found itself at a loss.

"Suggested" that the U.S. need not yield to China, because the U.S. still has a trump card.

The so-called trump card he mentioned is the Sino-U.S. trade surplus.

From the perspective of the United States, the U.S. has been in a trade deficit with China for many years. Chen Jiadun believes that in international trade, the country with a trade deficit does not need to worry about the countermeasures of the country with a trade surplus.

According to his argument, the current U.S.-China trade deficit is nearly 300 billion U.S. dollars, which means that China earns 300 billion U.S. dollars annually from the U.S. If this money is lost, it will have a huge impact on China's export trade.

To be honest, the issue of trade surplus and deficit does affect tariff negotiations.

But how exactly? Does the country with a trade deficit necessarily have an advantage over the country with a trade surplus? This is very much worth discussing.

The simplest example is the "oil war" between the West and Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. At that time, due to the fourth Middle East War, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries decided not to sell oil to the West, in order to pressure them.

From the perspective of trade deficit and surplus, the oil-producing countries were also in a trade surplus with the Western countries at that time. But did Saudi Arabia and other countries win against the United States in the oil war? The answer is obvious.

Looking at the Sino-U.S. rivalry, the U.S., as a major consumer, is indeed in a trade deficit position in Sino-U.S. trade.

However, since the first term of Trump, when the trade war was initiated, the overall trend of Sino-U.S. trade volume has been affected.

At the same time, however, the trade surplus between China and the U.S. has not decreased but increased.

Put simply, despite the impact of U.S. tariffs on Sino-U.S. trade volume, China is earning more money from the U.S. than before.

This fully illustrates that the U.S., as a consumer country, is dependent on Chinese goods, many of which are necessities. Even with tariffs, American consumers still have to buy Chinese goods.

The cost of tariffs is mostly borne by American consumers, which fully refutes Chen Jiadun's claim that the U.S. is in a trade deficit position and thus has a "trump card" against China.

The premise of a "trump card" is that the U.S. reduces Sino-U.S. trade volume, allowing China to earn less money from the U.S., thereby countering China.

However, the reality of trade over the past few years shows that while the scale may decrease slightly, China's earnings from the U.S. have increased instead. How can the U.S. control China by making China earn more money?

In addition, Chen Jiadun confidently stated that the U.S. is the world's largest consumer country, accounting for 35% of the global consumer market, so any other exporting country must rely on the U.S. market.

However, the data he provided is not accurate. In the 1970s and 1980s, the U.S. did account for about 37% of the global consumer market.

But now, with the rise of China and the increase in consumption capacity of developing countries around the world, the U.S. share of the global consumer market has dropped to about 25%.

It should be especially noted that since the outbreak of the Sino-U.S. trade war, China's exports to the U.S. have declined. From previously accounting for about 20% of China's total exports, it has dropped to about 11%.

On one hand, the U.S. share of the global consumer market has decreased, and on the other hand, the proportion of China's exports to the U.S. in its total exports has also decreased. Combined, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion: the importance of the U.S. market for China is rapidly declining.

Currently, our exports to countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are the main part of our exports.

Under these circumstances, the U.S. trying to use its consumer market to control China is clearly a miscalculation.

Finally, this so-called "China expert" Chen Jiadun is more intoxicated with the past strength of the U.S. than real American elites.

He cannot see the changes in the world order and the fact of the "rise of the East and the decline of the West", so he can only come to wrong conclusions.

If the U.S. government really listens to this so-called "China expert", it would actually be good for us.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562012533998010915/

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