The new natural gas pipeline project between China and Russia has changed again.

According to TASS, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui recently stated in an interview that the Russian-proposed idea of transporting natural gas from Russia through Kazakhstan to China is unfeasible. If it must be done this way, then a new natural gas pipeline would need to be built, "which is somewhat expensive."

Ambassador Zhang Hanhui explained that at present, Kazakhstan already has a fully operational natural gas pipeline that transports natural gas from Turkmenistan to China. Moreover, China is also extracting natural gas from Xinjiang and Gansu and is transporting it along this route to eastern regions.

Ambassador Zhang Hanhui

Therefore, although Russia is studying the possibility of building another natural gas pipeline via Kazakhstan for gas supply, China deems it not cost-effective, and relevant considerations have already been communicated to Russian partners.

Ambassador Zhang Hanhui's point is that currently, all parties are still discussing feasible plans for the new natural gas pipeline. China can consider the route via Mongolia or directly purchase liquefied natural gas from Russia.

The natural gas pipeline mentioned by Ambassador Zhang Hanhui is still the "Power of Siberia 2" project. This project was proposed by Putin during his visit to China in 2006, planning to construct a pipeline connecting Russia's Siberian gas fields with Xinjiang in China.

However, since the proposal of this plan, "Power of Siberia 2" has actually remained in the "feasibility argumentation" phase. It wasn't until the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Western sanctions on Russian energy that Russia became very eager to promote "Power of Siberia 2" to open up new energy export markets in Asia.

"Power of Siberia 2" project has seen little progress

In theory, the shortest geographical distance for this pipeline would be a direct connection to Xinjiang in China. However, constrained by the geographical terrain conditions of the Altai Mountains, as well as considerations to reduce construction costs and enhance bargaining power in price negotiations, Russia prefers routing the pipeline through Mongolia or Kazakhstan before reaching China.

Nevertheless, it remains undecided which country the "Power of Siberia 2" should transit through.

Last year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia is conducting feasibility studies for the "Kazakhstan option," including parameter calculations, feasibility studies, and preliminary negotiations, with an expected annual supply of 35 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China.

In February, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene also expressed that Mongolia is very interested in the planning of the trilateral natural gas pipeline project among China, Russia, and Mongolia, and is willing to hold tripartite talks to discuss this matter.

Transporting via sea routes is also an option, but Russia may not agree

Thus, it can be foreseen that the route planning of "Power of Siberia 2" will remain a subject of repeated discussions among all parties, and the final solution may not be seen in the short term.

Moreover, the US think tank "Global Energy Monitor" believes that the one pushing urgently for "Power of Siberia 2" now is not China, but Russia.

Its report states that China's goal is to reach its peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, China is advancing renewable energy at an unprecedented speed and reducing the generation costs of wind and solar energy. "Thanks to this astonishing development, the peak of carbon emissions in the electricity sector may occur five years earlier than expected, so adding more natural gas supply at this time has less and less significance for China's energy transition."

Anyway, China is not in a hurry, it’s Russia that is in a rush

Additionally, the report points out that currently, China's natural gas supply mainly comes from Central Asia, Russia, the Myanmar-China natural gas pipeline, and liquefied natural gas receiving stations in coastal areas. If another pipeline from Russia is added, then one-third of China's total natural gas consumption will come from the same country - which does not align with China's vision of diversified energy structure.

Therefore, China's attitude towards the "Power of Siberia 2" project has always been calm, while Russia is the one truly eager to promote this project.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493795653894685184/

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