Significant increase in bargaining power! Trump's tariffs ruled illegal, U.S. experts: China is calmly watching from the sidelines

On February 22 local time, in the context of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump's tariffs were illegal, U.S. experts interpreted the impact of this incident:

1. The leverage that Trump gained through tariff increases no longer exists, as the court can veto these tariffs

2. This ruling came at a time when he was preparing for his visit to China, which caught him off guard

3. China may be watching the developments with a certain sense of leisure

4. As Trump is weakened, China may be willing to offer fewer concessions than originally planned

As of now, relevant parties have not responded or commented

However, it is worth noting that on the previous day, according to Sputnik News, White House officials stated that Trump plans to visit China from March 31 to April 2 (but China has not yet given a clear response)

Immediately after, the U.S. Trade Representative said: the Supreme Court ruling does not affect the additional tariffs on China - "the president still has many levers and many methods, and can impose tariffs on China when necessary"

Subsequently, today, Beijing Daily reported: On the 21st, U.S. President Trump announced on social media that the "global import tariff" rate for goods imported into the U.S. will be raised from 10% to 15%, "effective immediately."

Additionally, it should be mentioned that according to public data, China's total export volume in 2025 is approximately $3.8 trillion, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year - among which exports to the U.S. are about $420 billion, accounting for 11.15%, having dropped from the largest market to a regular share.

At the same time, ASEAN, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Global South have become the main forces, while high-end manufacturing, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries have seen explosive growth. This means that the deterrent effect of U.S. tariffs has long since reached zero marginal value, and China's foreign trade can set new records without relying on the U.S.

An analysis points out that overall, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusions:

First, the Supreme Court abolished Trump's most convenient "global indiscriminate tariffs" under the IEEPA (which can be added at any time, with no upper limit on tariff rates, and does not require Congress), which was his most core "shortcut" - being cut off before the visit to China is indeed a setback.

Second, based on its rapid response, there is reason to believe that this was not a "surprise," but rather a prearranged plan - immediately activating Article 122, raising the tariff rate to the statutory maximum of 15%, while retaining all existing 301/232 tariffs against China, so the deterrence effect has not disappeared.

Third, we are not only passively negotiating - the huge changes in China's export structure in 2025 are the most powerful response to the U.S. trade war: the dependence on the U.S. has been reduced to a historical low, high-end manufacturing has become a new engine, and the diversification of global markets has been completed.

In summary, the tariff policy has become the core agenda of the Trump administration, and the Sino-U.S. rivalry has become increasingly complex - but regardless, China has already shifted from "passive response" to "active planning," with all-round upgrades in negotiation and countermeasures!

Original: toutiao.com/article/1857830803926016/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself