[By columnist Chen Feng of Observer's Network]
Since the partition of India and Pakistan, they have fought four wars and had two smaller-scale conflicts. At present, another conflict between India and Pakistan seems to be brewing, but from current indications, it is likely to remain a smaller-scale conflict rather than escalate into a large-scale war.
On April 22, a terrorist attack occurred in Indian-controlled Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 22 people (some say 26), mainly Hindu tourists. India accused Pakistan of being responsible for this, while Pakistan denied any involvement. On May 7, India launched missile attacks on nine targets in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan proper. Pakistan claimed that three locations (later increased to six) were hit.
Local time on May 7 at dawn, India conducted "Operation Sindhu" against nine targets in Pakistan. Image source: The Indian Express
The most notable announcement came from Lieutenant General Ahmed Shariq Chaudhry, spokesman for the Pakistani military, who stated that Pakistan had shot down six Indian combat aircraft, including three French-built "Rafales," one Russian Su-30MKI, one MiG-29, and one Israeli "Heron" drone.
India also claimed to have shot down a Pakistani JF-17 Thunder fighter jet, which is more familiarly known as the FC-1 Xiaolong, but did not specify the number of aircraft shot down.
The situation remains in flux. It must be said that before confirming the time, location, battle details, and debris, these claims cannot be fully trusted or dismissed outright. Indians are known for their exaggerations, and Pakistanis, who are essentially Indians who converted to Islam and live in "Pakistani India," share similar traits.
"Pakistani India" obviously does not exist, but Pakistan was carved out of British India. India derives its name from the Indus River, but apart from its upper reaches originating in Tibet, the main course and mouth of the river lie in Pakistan.
The partition was due to escalating religious conflicts between Hindus and Muslims in British India, which became uncontrollable. The final division of India and Pakistan was based on the principle of separating Hindu and Muslim populations, with the majority-Muslim region of Kashmir expected to belong to Pakistan. However, the ruler of Kashmir converted to Hinduism and signed over allegiance to India, leading to the first India-Pakistan war immediately after partition. The conflict ended with the division of Kashmir, where Indian-controlled Kashmir is lower and more prosperous, while Pakistani-controlled Kashmir is poorer but higher in elevation.
The issue of Kashmir's sovereignty remains unresolved, with both India and Pakistan claiming full control over all of Kashmir, making it a recurring hotspot for conflict. The Kargil War in 1999 took place in the central part of the cease-fire line, while the Siachen Glacier conflict in 2003 occurred in the unmarked western sector. The current conflict spans a broader area, involving larger-scale air forces and missiles, going beyond the recent conflicts that were primarily ground-based with only sporadic air engagements.
The Indian Air Force currently has over 580 fighters, including 36 "Rafale" aircraft, the latest and most advanced, 259 Su-30MKIs (plus 12 awaiting delivery), which form the backbone in terms of quantity, 59 MiG-29s and 46 Mirage 2000s still playing minor roles, and 35 "Tejas" (plus 73 pending delivery, with 97 already approved), which represent future hopes. Additionally, there are 113 Jaguars and 40 MiG-21s for symbolic purposes.
The "Rafale" is a fourth-generation half-stealth fighter from France, equipped with "Meteor" and "Mica" medium-range missiles. French Air Force and Navy Rafales have been involved in ground-attack missions against ISIS, but if Pakistan's claims are true, this marks the first time the "Rafale" has participated in an air battle and been shot down.
Remains of the "Mica" missile and its carriage found in Punjab state
The Su-30MKI is a second-generation Su-27, featuring a triplane configuration and thrust vectoring. In theory, it excels in maneuverability, but in practice, its drag is high, and its thrust-to-weight ratio is insufficient. The thrust vectoring is manually controlled, making its maneuverability more about appearances than substance. Its avionics and weapons performance are locked at the level of early post-Cold War Russia. There are records of Su-27s being shot down in the Ethiopian Civil War, but specifically regarding the Su-30MKI, if Pakistan's claims are true, this would mark its first air battle and shootdown.
The MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 are old faces, but the "Tejas" is described as "the hope of tomorrow" because it cannot yet be entrusted with major responsibilities. The "Tejas" is号称 "the lightest fourth-generation fighter in the world," but without some substance, its payload capacity, range, and avionics can only go so far. Air combat is a matter of life and death, and going only halfway is not enough.
The Pakistan Air Force currently has 440 fighters, including 20 J-10Cs (with another 16 pending delivery), which are direct rivals to the "Rafale." The JF-17 Thunder is the numerical backbone, with 50 Block 1s, 62 single-seat and 26 dual-seat Block 2s, and 23 Block 3s (with another 27 pending delivery, all Block 1s and 2s are being upgraded to Block 3).
There are 75 F-16s, once the mainstay, including 31 single-seat and 23 dual-seat Block 15 MLUs, 9 single-seat and 4 dual-seat Block 15 ADFs, 12 single-seat and 6 dual-seat Block 52+s. Additionally, there are 58 Mirage IIIs, 78 Mirage Vs, and 53 J-7s still serving as placeholders.
In terms of numbers, the Indian Air Force still holds an advantage, including advanced fighters.
Pakistan's F-16s are mostly Block 15s, which after mid-life upgrades (MLU) gained the ability to launch AIM-120 medium-range missiles; ADFs gained the ability to fire AIM-7F "Sparrow" missiles, later upgraded to AIM-120 capability. Regardless of upgrades, these early F-16s are old, with aging mechanical and system conditions. Only Block 52+s have relatively advanced 1990s-level capabilities.
However, the J-10C presents a completely different scenario. This is a semi-stealth third-generation J-10 fighter equipped with a turbofan 10 engine with increased thrust, an advanced active phased array radar, and PL-15 medium-range missiles, representing 21st-century advanced standards. This will be the J-10C's debut in combat, with results yet to be confirmed. Prior to the conflict, rumors circulated in Pakistan about the J-10C activating its radar and "forcing back" India's "Rafale."
The JF-17 is the result of Sino-Pakistani aviation cooperation, evolving from the "Super 7" through numerous iterations, with a bumpy journey but ultimately successful, becoming the most successful lightweight fighter in the world today. Only Sweden's "Gripen" can be compared, but at twice the cost; India's "Tejas" not only costs more than the JF-17 but also falls short in range, maneuverability, and weapon systems.
The JF-17 can carry China's PL-10 and PL-15, and due to its open-system design, it can also carry Turkey's and South Africa's short- and medium-range missiles, with countless options for ground-attack and anti-ship munitions. In fact, in air combat without the need to penetrate deep into enemy territory, the combination of the JF-17's active phased array radar and PL-15 advanced medium-range missiles can even outperform heavy Sukhoi Su-30MKIs.
In terms of pilot skills, Indian pilots seem to uphold a tradition of flashiness over substance. During joint training with U.S. F-15s, Indian pilots were fond of showing off vector thrust maneuvers, only to be humbled by the "straightforward but powerful" F-15s. The Su-30MKI has a seemingly decent thrust-to-weight ratio, and vector thrust should theoretically aid maneuverability, but the turning nozzles not only add weight but also cause some loss of thrust. More critically, the vector thrust of the Su-30MKI is manually controlled. Pilots performing pre-planned aerobatics during flight shows is one thing, but adapting to dogfights in real-time requires too much manual intervention.
It's hard to say whether Indian pilots learned their lesson after being humbled. India's hallmark is its persistent sense of misplaced confidence, which often leads to repeated mistakes against what it perceives as a weaker Pakistan Air Force.
In contrast, Pakistani pilots have long operated under adversity, suppressing the flashy tendencies shared with their Indian counterparts due to ethnic survival instincts, earning a good reputation for skill and fighting spirit. Many have been hired by Middle Eastern oil tycoons to fly various advanced fighters. Similarly, Israeli pilots inherited legends from the War of Independence, not necessarily due to superior skill but again driven by ethnic survival instincts.
In 2015, the Pakistani military uploaded a photo on its Twitter account showing a Pakistani military pilot posing with a Chinese J-10 fighter.
Of course, specific battlefield performances still require more reports to confirm, and we can only speculate at this point. The biggest question now is whether the conflict will escalate into a full-scale war.
Reports indicate that India's missile strikes targeted areas from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to Punjab province. Punjab was a wealthy region during the British Raj era, and it is also a mixed area inhabited by Sikhs, Hindus, and Muslims, making it impossible to simply divide along ethnic or religious lines. Instead, it was divided into two parts, resulting in a Punjab province on both sides of the border.
This conflict differs significantly from previous ones that were concentrated along the cease-fire line in Kashmir. Times have changed as well.
After the partition, Pakistan established itself as an Islamic state with its new capital named Islamabad. India, during Nehru's era, established itself as a secular state, with the Congress Party still adhering to secular principles. However, starting with Vajpayee, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which bases itself on Hindu nationalism, gained momentum, reaching its peak during Modi's era.
Modi has used Hindu nationalism to rally support, achieving some success. However, there are still around 15% Muslims in India, who traditionally engage in commerce and have higher incomes, maintaining stronger centrifugal tendencies. Allegedly, during cricket matches, considered the national sport in both countries, Indian Muslims often cheer for the Pakistani team, infuriating Hindu spectators.
Hindu temples and mosques in India were built on sites of past victories, not just for convenience but also reflecting the privileges of victors at the time and place, leaving behind many lingering issues and conflicts.
Kashmir, as an intractable issue between India and Pakistan, has become a focal point of Modi's policies, starting with encouraging Hindu tourism and immigration, using the same approach as蚕食 Tibet's southern regions to gradually absorb Kashmir. This naturally provoked a backlash from Kashmiri Muslims. Most of those killed in the April 22 incident were Hindus, reportedly with attackers deliberately targeting Hindus.
This is undoubtedly a great sin for the BJP, which bases itself on Hindu nationalism, and for Modi.
On the other hand, Pakistan has a natural "kinship" with Kashmiri Muslims. The word "Pakistan" is a composite term derived from Punjab (Punjab), the western tribal areas (now called Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, formerly known as Afghania), Kashmir (Kashmir), Sindh, and Balochistan. Regardless of Pakistan's denials, India firmly believes that Pakistan harbors and tolerates Kashmiri militants, with the nine locations attacked by Indian missiles in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan proper according to Indian claims being camps for Kashmiri militants.
However, Pakistan is no pushover and, like India, is a nuclear-armed state. Modi is well aware of the financial burden of war. After the Galwan Valley clash, India sent reinforcements to the border, heightening tensions along the Sino-Indian border for a prolonged period. Due to geographical and equipment disparities, China managed to tie down a significant portion of India's forces at minimal cost. India eventually found it unsustainable and responded to China's call for negotiations to ease border tensions.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: AFP
A full-scale war between India and Pakistan would shatter India's dream of rising power. For the Hindu nationalist Modi and the BJP, a protracted conflict would be a greater disaster. Therefore, while Modi repeatedly claims to "leave the war entirely to the military," he actually sets broad limits, focusing on missile attacks outside the border to avoid ground offensives, even avoiding cross-border attacks.
Pakistan's military geography is unfavorable. Its territory is relatively elongated, with the Indo-Pakistani border running lengthwise but with limited depth. The densely populated areas are spread along the Indus River plain, making them vulnerable to Indian encirclement. The central Rajasthan region happens to be where Indian armor is heavily concentrated.
So far, India has not only limited its actions to air force operations but has also refrained from crossing the border. All reported incidents of downed Indian aircraft have involved wreckage found on the Indian side, indicating that Indian aircraft have remained on the Indian side of the border.
Attacks from outside the border are certainly safer but come with higher costs and lower fire density. Even the U.S., with its vast resources, could not inflict sufficient damage on the Taliban. Both sides in the Ukrainian war have never relied solely on missiles or drones to decide the battlefield. India surely knows that relying solely on missile attacks from outside the border cannot eliminate deeply entrenched Kashmiri militants.
The U.S. initially supported Northern Alliance militias in Afghanistan with special forces guiding airstrikes against the Taliban. Later, over 100,000 U.S. troops were deployed, as missile, aerial strikes, and special forces alone could not eliminate the Taliban, and the Northern Alliance militias were no longer reliable. Of course, even with 100,000 troops, the U.S. failed to eliminate the Taliban and left in disgrace.
India may wish to reincorporate Pakistan, but realistically, it lacks such capability. Not only would the pre-partition religious and ethnic conflicts return, but the prospect of nuclear war is chilling. Therefore, India's characterization of this military action as "limited and non-escalatory" is likely sincere.
This also means that the conflict may largely be an air war, with a focus on beyond-visual-range combat. Ground forces remain poised but do not cross borders. Pakistan, being the weaker side, has no reason to initiate cross-border attacks; India fears getting bogged down in the war and thus refrains from initiating cross-border attacks.
If this comes true, the main players on the Indian side will be the "Rafale," Su-30MKI, and possibly some "Tejas," while Pakistan's main fighters will be the J-10C and JF-17, though the role of F-16 remains unclear.
The U.S. has strict conditions for aid-related F-16s. The first batch was provided during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to counter Soviet aerial incursions. Following Pakistan's nuclear tests, subsequent F-16 deliveries were halted, but after 9/11, to win Pakistan's cooperation, the U.S. resumed aid, with the condition being that they could only be used for homeland defense, primarily to prevent Pakistan from using F-16s to attack India across the border, thereby poisoning relations with India.
Now, India's missile strikes targeted areas in Punjab, clearly within Pakistan. However, Indian aircraft have remained on the Indian side of the border, meaning that theoretically, Pakistani F-16s still cannot fire across the border. So far, there has been no accusation from India that Pakistani F-16s crossed the border to fire. Therefore, it is estimated that the downed Indian aircraft (assuming no fabrication or mechanical failures) are all战绩 from Chinese medium-range missiles.
The JF-17 has long been equipped with the export version of the PL-12 SD-10, a medium-range missile comparable to the U.S. AIM-120 and Russian R-77, using active radar guidance. It weighs 180 kilograms, has a speed of M4+, and a range of 70-100 kilometers.
Starting with the JF-17 Mk3, the PL-15 with a longer range is being equipped. It also uses active radar guidance and features an active phased array radar seeker head that is almost impossible for the target aircraft to shake off through intense maneuvers. The bidirectional data link not only allows switching targets mid-flight or assisting when the missile struggles to autonomously lock onto a target due to interference or other factors but can also report what it sees and hears back to the carrier aircraft, aiding subsequent attacks. It weighs 210 kilograms but extends the range to over 200 kilometers, with some reports suggesting up to 300 kilometers. The export version PL-15E reaches 145 kilometers, with a speed of M5+. Known images show PL-15 being used in combat, with debris proving its use, but it cannot yet be confirmed that its hits were achieved with PL-15.
A white fragment picked up by Indian civilians, suspected to be part of PL-15E
The PL-15 is a more advanced medium-range missile than the AIM-120 and R-77. Calling it the world's most advanced medium-range missile is not an exaggeration. The U.S. Navy hurriedly mounted the heavy SM-6 ship-to-air missile on F-18E/F fighters, and the U.S. Air Force accelerated the development of the AIM-260 medium-range missile, all due to pressure from PL-15.
The European "Meteor" can reach a range of 200 kilometers (export versions may be reduced), but its speed is only M4, and its ramjet engine suffers significant thrust losses in varying atmospheric conditions at high altitudes and high maneuvers, limiting its practical use. The abandonment of rocket-ramjet propulsion in favor of dual-thrust solid rockets in new-generation medium-range missiles is not coincidental.
The J-10C naturally also equips the PL-15, supported by the more advanced active phased array radar.
In comparison, India's "Rafale" Meteor and Su-30MKI R-77 are less competitive. Actually, it is known that India ordered 250 Meteors, but whether they have been delivered or used in combat is unclear. It is quite possible that they are still using outdated "Micas," which are lighter but inferior in range and speed compared to PL-10. Circulating images show remnants of "Micas."
Since neither Indian nor Pakistani fighters have crossed the border, the air battles will be a contest of radars and medium-range missiles. Fighters will attempt to stay close to the border to maximize their range coverage but will not cross over.
Due to the range and energy advantages, as long as Pakistani fighters do not make mistakes and fall into ambushes by Indian fighters, they can relatively easily "hunt down" opponents. So far, India has only claimed to have shot down an unspecified number of "JF-17s" (likely just one), without Pakistani acknowledgment or video/image evidence of the wreckage.
This will be a splendid showcase moment for Chinese fighters, avionics, and air-to-air missiles. Chinese fighters and air-to-air missiles have reached world-class levels but have not undergone combat testing. Preparing for war is for the purpose of not having to fight, but prolonged peace also raises questions about the usefulness of preparedness.
The India-Pakistan air war proves the performance of Chinese fighters, avionics, and air-to-air missiles. Whether it's a "Rafale" (according to reports from "The Drive" website, French sources confirmed at least one "Rafale" was shot down), MiG-29, or something else, it marks the first record, greatly beneficial for future exports of China's military industry. No weapon is truly effective until it has seen action.
It is unclear what role China's ZDK-03 AWACS plays in the air war. Air combat is no longer a solo endeavor of fighters and pilots; early warning aircraft and data links consolidate battlefield resources into a powerful system, multiplying combat effectiveness. Exporting complete systems is the future of military exports.
For the current India-Pakistan conflict, the advancement of Chinese fighters, avionics, and air-to-air missiles is also good news, potentially helping to curb India's further adventurism.
India appeals to countries for support, advocating "zero tolerance for terrorists," but the U.S. and the U.K. remain on the sidelines, merely issuing empty calls for a cessation of hostilities. China calls for cooling down, and Russia expresses "deep concern."
This is an awkward situation for India. In theory, a conflict between nuclear powers should draw global attention and concerted efforts for mediation, but the world seems to take an "it is what it is" attitude toward the India-Pakistan conflict. If India were to gain the upper hand on the battlefield, this would be an opportune moment to expand the conflict, but the reality is that India is neither ahead nor knows how to escalate the conflict without leading to either long-term entanglement or escalation toward nuclear war.
How can India salvage its dignity? This is a question, but at present, it seems unlikely that the conflict will escalate into a large-scale war.
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