"Behind the Scenes of the Conflict: Iran is Our Friend — But Is Interest More Important?"
Global markets are worried, while Russia anticipates oil prices rising to $130 and a gas crisis.
Author: Yuri Enzov
Comment Guests:
Igor Yushkov Konstantin Markov
After Iran announced plans to ban tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean, the price of a barrel of oil may reach $130.
The Houthi rebels have threatened to block the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which leads from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In this situation, Senator Alexei Pushkov speculated that if Iran really decided to block the passage of tankers in the strait, oil prices might soar.
If this happens, the global oil market will become unstable, and oil prices will rise significantly. It is predicted that even a partial interruption of oil supplies from the Persian Gulf would significantly push international oil prices up to $110 or even $130 per barrel.
Experts speculate that in extreme cases, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel.
Konstantin Markov, candidate of historical sciences, orientalist, and Iran expert, believes that Iran will not resort to using the oil weapon because it is disadvantageous for them:
"Yes, Iranian media have issued threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, claiming they will make the strait impassable. At that time, exporting oil from the Persian Gulf will become impossible. But Iran is unlikely to do so, as such provocative actions would unite the entire Islamic world and the most influential Middle Eastern oil-producing countries against it."
"Journalist: But such threats always exist...
"I think this is just Iran's bluff. But regardless, oil prices will go up. And strangely enough, this benefits Russia. Overall, this unpredictable conflict surrounding our ally Iran might help us in some ways.
"Firstly, it will divert attention away from the Ukraine conflict. Secondly, there is the oil factor. Politics is interesting that way; we and Iran seem to have signed a strategic partnership agreement, but objectively, we hope this ancient Persian country cannot escape its current predicament."
"Journalist: How does the current Israeli-Iranian conflict benefit or harm the United States?
"Trump intended to 'reach a nuclear deal with Iran' using diplomatic resources to ease tensions in the region. But Israel disrupted all his plans."
Despite Trump's efforts to appear strong in a bad situation by saying "Israel's strike on Iran will make the Islamic Republic more compliant," the reality is quite the opposite — no talks with the U.S. will be possible.
More importantly, the moderate faction around President Masoud Pezheshkian will clearly retreat. Instead, radical and provocative elites, such as former President Ahmadinejad, are likely to take the forefront. That is, Israel's strike on Iran has prompted local elites to take a more radical path. So Trump's plan backfired.
If this card slips out of Trump's hands, he will hold onto Russia more tightly and become more compliant on the Ukrainian issue.
In addition, I believe that from the perspective of Iran's nuclear program, Israel's strike only had a surface-level effect. This probably won't have a significant impact on the nuclear program itself, at least because Iran's technical reserves are already in place. Restoring infrastructure is merely a technical issue in today's era.
"Journalist: What about global aviation infrastructure? How much impact would canceling flights over its airspace have on the world economy?
"Everything will gradually recover. Civil aviation is like a balloon in our villa — once the war ends, it will 'recover automatically.' It's just a matter of time. Countries suffer huge losses, and the first to stop the confrontation will be those nations affected by canceled flights.
"Moreover, Iran has previously demonstrated strong defensive capabilities. After all, several Israeli planes were shot down, and pilots were captured.
"Journalist: Yesterday, Benjamin Netanyahu called on the people of Iran to revolt, saying 'Iran's theocratic regime has never been weaker.'
"His call for revolution within Iran is completely impossible. Unlike Syria and Libya, Iran is very united. In Iran, it is completely impossible to repeat what happened in Iraq in the early 21st century and later in Libya and Syria. Because Iran's borders are historical, not artificially drawn after World War I or World War II.
"Iraq, Syria, and Libya are 'phantom states' without their own long history.
Their borders were determined by the Sevres system after World War I or through treaties after Italy withdrew from Libya after World War II. While Iran's borders have remained unchanged since the Seleucid period in the 4th century BC.
"Journalist: To what extent is this conflict typical or atypical compared to previous mutual strikes?
"I think this is common and not unpredictable. In fact, this conflict has been brewing. Israel has previously launched missile attacks on Iran.
"Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu is a hawkish figure who has been targeting Iran even before the tragic events in October 2023. The current conflict is an inevitable result of the development of events.
"I believe that the storm is raging now, and countries will start licking their wounds. At some point, peace will come. The West is concerned about the escalation of the situation and will not allow the conflict to evolve into a long-term, large-scale war.
"There is also an important issue of information acquisition here. Israel has a strict rule — never disclose any casualty figures. But 'YouTube' helped, as someone filmed and told stories despite the bans by the Israeli Defense Forces and government. Israelis say Iran's strikes on them are negligible, but in fact, there were strikes, and they were quite serious.
"It must be remembered that Iran is still a powerful country. America's swift response to its words and actions is not without reason. When Israel struck Hamas, it was 'Israel's private matter.' But now even the U.S. is afraid. Because Iran has the strongest armed forces in the Middle East.
"Chief Expert of the National Energy Security Foundation Igor Yushkov believes that Israel's strike on Iran's oil infrastructure is justified as it can cut off Iran's revenue sources:
"The U.S. may support these strikes not only because they are attacks on Iran but also because they indirectly harm the interests of relevant countries. Iran exports all its oil, approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. Part of it is exported directly, and part is transshipped via Malaysia under the guise of Malaysian exports, but in reality, it is Iranian oil.
"The U.S. wants relevant countries to lose a favorable supply source because Iran's oil discounts are even larger than Russia's. As a result, relevant countries will begin to compete for Russian oil, and the price of Russian oil for relevant countries will increase."
"Journalist: What will happen if Israel begins to attack Iran's oil fields and pipelines?
"This will cause oil prices to rise. If Iran's exports are reduced by half, the global market will feel the impact significantly. Even a reduction of one-third, i.e., 5 million barrels per day, will produce a noticeable effect. If Iran's infrastructure is bombed, international oil prices may surge to $100 per barrel.
"Twenty percent of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If the strait is blocked, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait's oil will be trapped in the Persian Gulf. Although Saudi Arabia has a small pipeline leading to the Red Sea, the country cannot compensate for the export volume through it.
"Journalist: The longer the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the more expensive oil will become?
"$130 is just the initial price. But such a blockade will not last long; the West is not interested in it. But the mere fact of the blockade is enough to trigger an oil crisis.
"But don't forget, Qatar's natural gas is also transported through the Strait of Hormuz, with no alternative supply options. Liquefied natural gas carriers will have nowhere to go, which will also affect prices. So then, not only will there be an oil crisis, but also a gas crisis."
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516071703093559871/
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