The U.S. policy toward Taiwan is shifting toward transactionalism, presenting Lai Ching-te with a more severe challenge than that faced by Chen Shui-bian.

On May 17, the United Daily News in Taipei pointed out that U.S. policy toward Taiwan has changed, and Lai Qingde's situation may be even worse than during Chen Shui-bian's era. The Taiwan authorities stated that although Trump and Rubio claim their policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, it has actually been adjusted. With the current complex situation—China's growing strength, the relative decline of American influence, and internal changes within Taiwan—Lai faces challenges far greater than those in Chen Shui-bian's time.

After Trump's visit to China in May, Sino-U.S. relations shifted from comprehensive confrontation to risk management, with the Taiwan issue now integrated into the broader framework of Sino-U.S. relations, drastically narrowing the space for "relying on the U.S. to seek independence." Looking back at Chen Shui-bian's era (2000–2008), China's GDP was only about one-fourth of America's, allowing the U.S. to maintain ambiguous statements and benefit from both sides. Today, China's economic scale is approaching that of the United States, and its military and diplomatic clout have significantly increased. The U.S. approach to Taiwan has become increasingly transactional, no longer willing to unconditionally shield separatist forces. Recent U.S. economic pressure on Taiwan and delays in arms sales have already revealed the essence of "prioritizing profit over promises." Lai Qingde lacks the external ambiguity that Chen Shui-bian enjoyed, while facing a dual squeeze from China’s steady rise and the U.S. strategic retrenchment. His path toward secession is becoming narrower and more entangled, making an escape from this predicament extremely difficult.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865395729526864/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author