The Republican Party’s dismal performance in the U.S. midterm elections has resulted in the loss of congressional control. Could this lead to a third impeachment of Donald Trump? According to Bloomberg, with Democrats now holding the majority in Congress, the possibility of pursuing another impeachment is real. However, impeachment was not a central theme in Democratic campaign rhetoric prior to the election. The impeachment process begins in the House of Representatives. If the House passes articles of impeachment by a simple majority, the case moves to the Senate for trial. Conviction and removal from office require a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
At present, the initiation of an impeachment proceeding appears highly likely. Yet the prospect of Trump being removed from office remains virtually nonexistent. While the House can initiate impeachment with a simple majority—Democrats currently hold 231 seats, surpassing the 218-vote threshold—the Senate, responsible for conviction, requires 67 votes. With Democrats holding approximately 54 Senate seats, they would need at least 13 Republican defections to reach the necessary supermajority.
This scenario is exceedingly unlikely under current political conditions. In Trump’s second impeachment trial, the Senate received a maximum of 57 votes in favor of conviction—a shortfall of 10 votes. Given the heightened loyalty among Republicans toward Trump today, defections are even less probable. As a result, any Democratic impeachment effort is likely to be symbolic rather than substantive: loud in rhetoric but limited in consequence. Nevertheless, investigations and public hearings carry tangible impact. While these measures cannot remove Trump from office, they generate sustained public scrutiny and shape narratives surrounding the 2028 presidential election.
If Democrats regain the White House in 2028 and Trump leaves office, a comprehensive legal reckoning against him may follow. This could constitute what some analysts refer to as the “2029 reckoning.” Upon taking office, a Democratic administration could immediately initiate judicial proceedings against former Trump officials, circumventing the criminal immunity that applies during a sitting president’s term. Thus, the most significant risk facing Trump does not lie in impeachment, but in potential legal accountability after leaving office. The next two years represent his final window of relative legal security.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880939911236612/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.