Source: Global Times
[Global Times Special Correspondent Chenyang] According to multiple Iranian media reports, on March 15, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched the 54th round of "True Promise-4" operations and for the first time used the "Mushu" solid-fuel ballistic missile. This move means that the previous claims by the United States and Israel that "Iran's missiles are exhausted" have been proven false, and the missile warfare in the Middle East may continue for a long time. At the same time, the real interception capability of the U.S. anti-missile system, which has been carefully deployed in the Middle East for decades, has been fully exposed.
Footage of the launch of the Iranian "Mushu-2" missile.
Exposing the Fragility of the U.S. Anti-Missile Network in the Middle East
According to the website "The Drive" of the United States, the U.S. has spent years integrating the previously independent anti-missile systems of various countries in the Middle East into a comprehensive "super anti-missile system." This anti-missile network is provided with early warning by the U.S. Space Force's "Space-Based Infrared System" and the "JSTARS" long-range surveillance radar deployed in Qatar. Once Iran launches a missile, they will calculate the relevant trajectory information and pass it to the AN/TPY-2 detection radars of countries such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar for relay tracking. These radars, part of the "THAAD" anti-missile system, can detect targets up to 2,000 kilometers away, directly guiding "THAAD" intercept missiles for high-altitude target interception, and also provide relevant information for terminal interception by the "Patriot" systems deployed in many countries in the Middle East. In addition, several U.S. Navy Aegis destroyers deployed in the eastern Mediterranean can launch "Standard-3" intercept missiles to counter medium-range ballistic missiles launched by Iran.
U.S. Army THAAD system photo
However, this meticulously crafted U.S. anti-missile network has faced tremendous pressure from the coordinated attacks of Iranian missiles and drones. On the very first day of the U.S. and Israeli air strikes against Iran, Iran claimed to have "destroyed" the strategic early warning radar in Qatar. Later, satellite images released by Western commercial satellite companies also proved that the three-sided array radar antenna of the "JSTARS" strategic early warning radar had suffered damage, apparently attacked on the side facing Iran.
In addition, Iran claimed to have destroyed at least four "THAAD" systems deployed by the United States and its allies in the Middle East. Although the U.S. has not admitted this, CNN reported that satellite images showed signs of destruction or explosions near the AN/TPY-2 detection radars of multiple "THAAD" systems deployed in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. After losing these remote detection "eyes" for Iranian missiles, the U.S. significantly reduced its early warning capabilities against Iranian missiles in the Middle East, thereby greatly affecting the response capabilities of the interception system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran repeatedly announced that its attacks accurately hit key targets such as the "Patriot" anti-missile systems at the Al-Zafar Air Base in the UAE, the Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, and the Udied Air Base in Qatar.
Analysts believe that due to the U.S. long-term emphasis on anti-missile defense while neglecting air defense capabilities, the anti-missile network deployed in the Middle East has repeatedly encountered vulnerabilities when facing coordinated attacks by Iranian suicide drones and ballistic missiles. With expensive long-range early warning radars being destroyed or unable to function properly, the U.S. has found it difficult to fill the gap in a timely manner, leading to a decline in the interception efficiency of its anti-missile system. A U.S. official revealed that the interception effectiveness of the anti-missile system in the Middle East was "not as expected." Theodore Postol, a professor at MIT and a missile defense expert, analyzed that based on videos circulating on the internet, the interception success rate of the "Patriot" system was only in the single digits. As the inventory of interception missiles rapidly depleted, its interception effectiveness continued to decline.
The Increasing Imbalance of Attack and Defense Costs
During the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran last year, a large number of interception missiles were consumed to intercept the medium-range ballistic missiles and long-range suicide drones launched by Iran toward Israel. The Wall Street Journal estimated at the time that the interception missile consumption of Israeli domestic "Arrow-2/3" and "David's Sling" anti-missile systems reached tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars per day.
"The Drive" channel of the "The Drive" website reported that during this period, the U.S. "THAAD" system fired 100-150 interception missiles, accounting for about 1/4 of its total, with each missile costing over $12.7 million. The New York Times reported that the U.S. Navy also fired more than 80 "Standard-3" interception missiles, accounting for about 1/5 of its total inventory, with the Block IB type missile priced at around $12.5 million, and the newer Block IIA type missile priced at around $37 million.
Before the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the U.S. had mobilized a large number of interception missiles from various parts of the world to the Middle East to increase inventory. However, according to multiple Western media reports, the consumption of interception missiles used by the U.S. and Israel during the previous Israel-Iran conflict was huge.
Although President Trump claimed that the U.S. could basically supply unlimited ammunition, many defense analysts believe that the U.S. weapons stockpile is smaller than the "ideal size" expected by the military. Even the "Patriot" system, which has a relatively larger inventory of interception missiles, has seen its stockpile reduced due to military aid to Ukraine. In fact, before the U.S. and Israel's recent attack on Iran, the U.S. had already experienced a shortage of "Patriot" interception missile inventories. Germany ordered eight "Patriot" anti-missile systems in 2024, but German officials stated that the U.S. has not yet provided an initial delivery schedule.
More worrying for U.S. analysts is the issue of the cost of the missile warfare. "The Drive" channel of the "The Drive" website said that the production cost of Iranian ballistic missiles ranges from tens of thousands to millions of dollars, while even the cheapest "Patriot" interception missile costs more than $4 million, let alone the more expensive high-end interception missiles that can cost tens of millions of dollars or more. Usually, two to three interception missiles are needed to achieve a high interception success rate for one incoming missile, further increasing the cost difference in missile warfare.
Postol emphasized that Iran's attack also frequently uses a larger number of low-cost suicide drones, with Western estimates indicating their unit price is as low as $50,000 or even less. Compared to the complex specialized production facilities required for ballistic missiles, the production requirements for suicide drones are very low, even allowing them to be assembled in small workshops. Therefore, the U.S. and Israel find it difficult to destroy Iran's drone production capabilities solely through air strikes. Postol believes that by launching a large number of such drones, Iran forces the U.S. and its Middle Eastern allies to use expensive air defense systems for interception. He warned that the Pentagon may have underestimated the scale of such attacks. Coordinated drone "swarms" could quickly deplete the U.S. missile defense reserves, exposing key U.S. facilities in the region.
Technological Upgrades in the Battle of Attacks and Defenses
At the same time, the missile warfare in this Middle East conflict is entering a war of attrition, and its technology is continuously upgrading. Although the U.S. and Israel have repeatedly claimed to have destroyed a large number of Iranian ballistic missile launch vehicles through air strikes and "almost completely" destroyed Iran's missile production facilities, various signs indicate that Iran still has a considerable number of missile reserves. In the 54th round of the "True Promise-4" operation launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran on the 15th, the "Mushu" intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile was used for the first time. This is one of Iran's most advanced ballistic missiles, with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers, capable of terminal maneuvering and releasing decoy missiles, making it more difficult to penetrate. Compared to the liquid-fueled missiles previously used, such as the "Qader" and "Khorramshahr-4," solid-fueled missiles require shorter preparation times for launch and theoretically have the characteristics of "launch on demand" and "fire and run," offering better survivability.
According to Iranian media reports, the spokesperson of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated on the 15th that the missiles currently being launched by Iran "were mostly produced 10 years ago," and many missiles produced after the conflict between Israel and Iran in June last year "have not been used yet," with many of Iran's missile depots "still untouched." The spokesperson also stated that so far, Iran has launched approximately 700 missiles and 3,600 drones targeting U.S. and Israeli objectives.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon believes that after losing production facilities, Iran's ballistic missiles are "one less for every one shot," so it should shift focus to intercepting Iranian suicide drones. U.S. Army Secretary Daniel C. Driscoll stated that the U.S. has deployed 10,000 "Gnat" interception drones originally intended for Ukraine to the Middle East to counter Iranian aerial attacks. This "anti-drone" drone has already shown successful applications in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It is claimed that it can autonomously identify, track, and intercept enemy aerial targets using an artificial intelligence system, providing a significant tactical advantage in countering the Iranian "Shahed-136" drones. In terms of cost, the procurement price of this type of drone ranges from $14,000 to $15,000, and if mass production is initiated, the price could be reduced to $3,000 to $5,000. As a countermeasure, Iran used the jet-powered "Shahed-238" drone in its recent attacks, which increased its speed from about 180 km/h for the "Shahed-136" to over 500 km/h, and its flight altitude is much higher. This high-altitude, high-speed characteristic greatly increases the difficulty for the U.S. "anti-drone" drones to intercept.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7617990296458101282/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.