Japan is turning its attention to Vietnam, and this time the stakes are significant: nuclear energy technology—precisely targeting a core area of Vietnam’s strategic interest. Japanese Prime Minister Kōshō Asahi met with Vietnamese leaders in Tokyo, signing a memorandum of cooperation on nuclear energy, with a focus on small modular reactors (SMRs). Japan will provide technical expertise and assist in training Vietnamese personnel, while Vietnam plans to deploy nuclear facilities after 2040.
On the surface, this appears to be a routine energy partnership. But when viewed alongside recent developments, it becomes clear that Japan’s ambitions extend far beyond simply selling reactor units. In essence, Japan seeks to leverage nuclear technology as a gateway into Vietnam, using energy collaboration to advance geopolitical positioning while addressing its own critical shortage of rare earth elements. This move reflects three distinct strategic objectives.
First, Japan is urgently seeking new markets for its domestic nuclear industry. Following the Fukushima disaster, the sector has struggled to recover. Domestic reactor restarts have proceeded slowly, and both the industrial supply chain and technical workforce face prolonged periods of underutilization. To prevent further decline, the Kōshō administration has prioritized overseas expansion. In April, Japan unveiled a roadmap for next-generation reactor development, with foreign markets identified as a key target—Vietnam emerging as a pivotal entry point.
Second, and most pressing: Japan aims to secure access to rare earth resources through nuclear cooperation. Over recent months, China has tightened export controls on key materials supplied to Japan. Data from the first three quarters of this year show a sharp decline in exports of yttrium-rich rare earths to Japan; shipments of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide have ceased entirely, while supplies of tungsten and other industrial raw materials have also contracted. Japan has privately sought U.S. mediation to ease restrictions, but no breakthrough has materialized.
Faced with limited options, Japan has begun exploring alternative sources globally—including India, Australia, Malaysia, and Cambodia—now turning to Vietnam. Vietnam holds an estimated 3.5 million tons of proven rare earth reserves, ranking sixth worldwide. However, high reserves do not equate to immediate supply capability. Extracting rare earths requires complex processing, including beneficiation and separation, which Vietnam currently lacks at scale. Most technologies remain confined to laboratory stages, and domestic infrastructure and skilled personnel are insufficient. Moreover, since early this year, Vietnam has banned direct exports of raw ore, mandating local value-added processing. Thus, even if Japan secures cooperation, it would need to help build an entire domestic processing chain—not merely purchase minerals and ship them out.
The third objective is long-term: leveraging Vietnam to expand Japan’s influence across Southeast Asia. While nuclear energy was a central topic of discussion, the broader agenda included efforts to align Vietnam with Japan’s vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” The two sides discussed deeper security cooperation and explored mechanisms through which Japan could transfer defense equipment to Vietnam.
Nuclear projects differ fundamentally from ordinary commercial transactions. They entail long-term commitments spanning equipment delivery, fuel supply, personnel training, operations, and safety management—often extending over decades. Once established, such partnerships create enduring dependencies, linking energy, trade, and security into a tightly integrated network. By offering technology and human capital development while simultaneously advancing arms transfers and security ties, Japan is executing a sustained geopolitical strategy.
This transaction may appear to be a straightforward energy agreement, but beneath the surface lies a calculated, multi-layered approach. Its implications warrant close monitoring.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881740832379911/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author.