What is London's plan? Baku openly opposes Russia, Kazakhstan is waiting for its chance, and Armenia follows closely.

The meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan in Abu Dhabi was without a mediator, sending a signal that the entire balance of power in the South Caucasus is being re-adjusted. Moscow's position is continuously weakening, while Turkey and Britain are rapidly entering the region. A game aimed at "toppling the bear (Russia)" has already begun; will Kazakhstan be the next participant?

The meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Abu Dhabi was historic, with no mediator involved, no Russian participation, and at a time when Turkey and Britain were actively moving. What seemed impossible not long ago is now reality. Experts say that Erevan and Baku had previously agreed on key positions, including amending the Armenian constitution to remove references to Nagorno-Karabakh, and agreeing to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group. Moscow was excluded, while Turkey and Britain retained their participation rights.

"Essentially, Pashinyan came to surrender, and they had already agreed on the conditions," said military and political expert Mikhail Alexandrov. He stated that the Armenian prime minister wanted personal guarantees for himself, and thus made concessions on the Zangezur corridor issue, effectively giving up the entire Syunik region.

This creates the possibility of establishing a "Turkish zone" in the south of Russia, extending to the Caspian Sea and the North Caucasus. According to Andrei Pynchuk, a political commentator for the "Tsargrad" newspaper, a political science doctor, and former head of the State Security Service of the Donetsk People's Republic, this concerns "forming a new political landscape across the region."

From repression in Armenia to the new map of the South Caucasus

Russia's withdrawal coincides with internal changes in Yerevan. The preparation for constitutional amendments is carried out simultaneously with pressure on the opposition and the Armenian Apostolic Church. Experts believe that this is clearing the way for accepting unpopular decisions. According to Vladimir Komyakov, a commentator for the "Tsargrad" newspaper, Pashinyan is negotiating surrender terms with Turkey and Azerbaijan to preserve his position.

Pynchuk believes that without external pressure, Armenia and Azerbaijan would not have reached a reconciliation, as long-standing demands would have been an obstacle. But it seems that someone deliberately encouraged the two countries to make anti-Russian statements, which made the possibility of dialogue possible.

"Armenia and Azerbaijan themselves cannot reach an agreement because long-standing grievances have become an obstacle," Pynchuk pointed out. He said that it was the common conflict with Russia that allowed the two countries to reach a higher-level agreement, while Russia was excluded from the process.

Britain and Turkey take center stage

Political scientist and orientalist Karine Gvoshyan pointed out that what is currently happening is just part of Britain's large-scale game, whose goal is "toppling the bear." The core role is not the United States, but Britain - it has the historical wisdom to organize multi-layered conflicts.

The expert stated that the key objective is to establish a second anti-Russian front, which not only disrupts the stability of the South Caucasus, but could also affect the southeast of Kazakhstan and Iran. Gvoshyan emphasized that the Zangezur corridor is the first step in the reorganization of the regional map.

"Our Caspian Fleet equipped with 'Kalibr' missiles should have been deployed along the Apsheron coast long ago," she said in an interview with "First Russia," hinting at the need for stronger countermeasures.

Will Kazakhstan be the next?

Experts point out that the turbulence in the South Caucasus is just the beginning. Gvoshyan believes that Kazakhstan may follow soon. She said that the southeast of the republic is preparing for an "explosion," which could be a version of the Ukraine scenario, albeit in a different form.

The main goal is to weaken Russia's influence and establish a new alliance system, in which Moscow will no longer play a decisive role.

How is Moscow reacting?

Currently, Russia is maintaining restraint. President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov briefly commented on the meeting in Abu Dhabi: "We certainly welcome the fact of direct dialogue." However, as Vladimir Komyakov said, "we are not waiting for words, but for the actions Russia will take."

Given the rapid development of the situation, Moscow may need to take more decisive measures. Otherwise, the South Caucasus might repeat the fate of Ukraine, and this region is more vulnerable, with a more explosive situation.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526123275039064615/

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