American magazine "National Security" published an article titled "F/A-XX Fighter vs. China's J-20: Two Words Summarize the Outcome" on September 9th.

Author Brent Eastwood, in a hypothetical analysis, compared the U.S. Navy's sixth-generation carrier-based aircraft F/A-XX, still in the development stage, with China's current fifth-generation stealth fighter, the J-20.

He believes that from paper specifications, the F/A-XX has a clear advantage, including more advanced stealth performance, stronger sensor fusion, close to Mach 3 speed, longer range, and high-speed weapons and nuclear strike capabilities.

The article ultimately concludes that the F/A-XX wins.

However, Eastwood also acknowledges that the J-20 itself is not to be underestimated; otherwise, there would be no need to bring out a sixth-generation aircraft for comparison. More importantly, it has already been mass-produced and widely deployed, while the F/A-XX remains at the model and design drawing stage, merely a paper tiger. Even if the U.S. Navy officially initiates the project in the future, it would be impossible to make up the production gap in a short time.

This comparison highlights a commonly overlooked fact: what determines the outcome of a major war is not only performance parameters, but more importantly, quantity, production capacity, and long-term consumption capability.

F/A-XX Renderings

The Chinese Air Force has already established an advantage in the number and production capacity of fifth-generation fighters.

The J-20, which made its first flight in 2011 and was put into service in 2017, has never stopped its production line.

In recent years, with factory upgrades, the production capacity has reached an absolutely leading level globally.

In contrast, the U.S. F-22 has already been discontinued, and although the F-35 has considerable production capacity, due to different positioning, there is no real counterpart to the J-20.

The numerical gap means that China can not only maintain a routine suppression in the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, but also ensure that in any potential conflict, it can maintain a lasting coverage with quantity.

For example, in the Taiwan Strait, the J-20 has already achieved routine patrols, forcing the opponent to continuously consume by rotating large numbers of aircraft.

At the same time, China's aviation industry system has gradually broken through in core areas such as engines, radar, and avionics. The expansion of production capacity not only guarantees quantity, but also allows maintenance, upgrades, and improvements to form a positive cycle.

This dual advantage of quantity and production capacity, in a strategic sense, is summed up in one sentence: in the event of long-term confrontation in the future, the advantage of China's fifth-generation aircraft will be gradually amplified under the guarantee of quantity and production capacity, and even the U.S. sixth-generation aircraft will not be able to cope with the massive cluster of Chinese fifth-generation aircraft.

U.S. Aircraft

When both quantity and production capacity have a significant advantage, the generation gap can be eliminated.

The lead in single-machine performance is often exaggerated under a microscope, but the law of war is that if the technological gap cannot be supported by quantity, it will soon be diluted in a war of attrition.

Assuming the F/A-XX is one generation ahead of the J-20, it could potentially fight two or three J-20s in single combat. However, if China can constantly produce more J-20s, and even replenish new aircraft quickly after losses, the single-machine lead will eventually become ineffective under the crushing pressure of quantity.

The reason why the advantage of quantity is always ignored is because it is not dazzling and lacks technical glamour.

Media and the public are more inclined to chase new concepts like stealth, super cruise, and AI cockpits, but ignore the seemingly traditional "simple methods" of quantity, production capacity, and consumption.

This is both a choice in narrative and a legacy of Cold War thinking: the West is accustomed to emphasizing qualitative superiority, while avoiding the awkward situation where the opponent may counter with quantity stacking.

But real warfare is not a technology showcase, but a test of material and willpower.

Performance determines combat, quantity determines war.

Chinese Aircraft

Moreover, China is not just focused on building fifth-generation aircraft. It is also actively promoting the development of sixth-generation aircraft.

Between the end of 2024 and 2025, China tested two new aircraft prototypes, called J-36 and J-50, in Chengdu and Shenyang, respectively. Both use a tailless layout, advanced aerodynamic design, and stealth materials. The outside world generally believes this is an important step for China to move toward sixth-generation aircraft.

Add to this breakthroughs in high-speed hypersonic wind tunnels, advanced avionics, and artificial intelligence flight control systems, and it is completely foreseeable that China will not only have guaranteed quantity in the future, but will also not lag behind the U.S. in quality.

If the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX eventually enters practical use, China will likely have its own sixth-generation aircraft production capabilities by then.

At that time, the technological advantage will be balanced, the quantity advantage will remain stable, and the production capacity advantage will continue to accumulate. The judgment that the F/A-XX "wins" will seem very funny.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548365224152171071/

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