【By Observer Net, Zhang Jingjuan】With only days left before his departure, the Chief of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard, has sounded a warning to Europe.
According to "Politico", an American political news website, on the 28th, Burkhard warned in an interview that "after two centuries of Western dominance, a weakened Europe may become 'a hunted animal' in the future." He believes that European countries must unite more closely and form strategic synergy to counter the "spheres of influence" being built by China, the United States, and Russia.
Burkhard emphasized that the crisis Europe faces cannot be resolved merely by strengthening the military. The core reality is that the world has entered a "hard power-dominated" structure. He summarized the current global political landscape into four challenges: the use of force as a means of conflict resolution; the challenge of Western hegemony by countries such as China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran; the impact of information warfare; and the impact of climate change.
In his office at the Pentagon-like building in the Balar district south of Paris, this French officer said that the greatest threat to Europe is not Russian tanks, but the establishment of an order that replaces the Western model. If a country can dismantle Europe without armed attack, it will choose this path.
In Burkhard's view, this anxiety stems from a mismatch between Europe's strength and its strategic positioning. He believes that the comprehensive strength of European countries has never been so strong, yet governments and people face a denial attitude towards the level of violence in today's world. Moreover, Europe has always struggled to speak with one voice.
The most typical example is the divergence in defense policies: countries in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Estonia, see Russia as a direct threat and advocate for increasing NATO defense spending, while Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez (Pedro Sánchez) publicly stated that Russia does not pose a direct threat to Spain, and the country has the right not to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
Burkhard frankly said, "The difficulty of European defense lies in how to integrate the strategic interests of all European countries. The strategic vision of Estonians and Portuguese is completely different, which is undeniable. We must find a middle ground."
He believes that the strategic unity of European countries must become extremely solid in the future, "No single European country can become a major global player on its own." He further stated that Europe does not need a system to "oppose the United States or Russia," but rather to form enough "critical mass," only then can Europe have influence and avoid being "divided and ruled" by others.
Burkhard's warning is not an isolated alarmist statement. Recently, concerns about Europe's weakness have increased.
Former President of the European Central Bank and former Italian Prime Minister Draghi recently openly stated that the EU can no longer deceive itself, believing that economic power and consumer markets alone can exert global influence. He said that the actions of US President Trump gave the EU a "very heavy warning," making it realize the need to think about security and defense spending from a more strategic perspective.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni criticized on the 27th that Europe is gradually falling into an "irrelevant" position on the global stage, saying that if the EU wants to maintain competitiveness, it must "do less but do it better."
Meloni also called on the EU to take greater responsibility for its own defense, warning that Europe can no longer rely on the United States. "After decades of outsourcing European security to the United States—costing inevitable political dependence—we must be willing to pay the price for freedom and independence. Only those who can defend themselves can truly make free choices."
Photo from video of the Chief of the French Armed Forces, Thierry Burkhard
Aside from Europe's own strategic dilemmas, Burkhard also expressed Europe's dilemma and passivity on the Ukraine issue in the interview. Maintaining Ukraine's independence was seen as "part of Europe's strategic interest," but since the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, although discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees have "significantly intensified," they have remained stuck in the "chicken or egg" dilemma.
Burkhard said that the Trump administration's strong willingness to achieve a peace agreement injected new momentum into the issue of Ukrainian security guarantees. He pointed out that for most European countries, American military support is a prerequisite for their participation in "monitoring potential peace agreements in Ukraine."
However, the core view of Americans is that Europeans must demonstrate a commitment to taking responsibility. "It's like a chicken or egg dilemma; some countries are only willing to make commitments if they have American guarantees. But this is essentially not a military debate, but a political game," Burkhard said.
Although Burkhard believes that the "best security guarantee" should be based on "American commitment to intervene," the potential risks cannot be ignored: the Kremlin has repeatedly expressed opposition to European troops entering Ukraine, and the "rules of engagement" for驻乌军队 remain unresolved.
"To maintain a peace agreement, the core of the rules of engagement is self-defense," Burkhard emphasized, stating that providing security guarantees necessarily means "taking risks," which requires European countries to show strategic determination.
In the interview, Burkhard also made a judgment: the Ukraine conflict is pushing Western armies from "wars of active choice" to "wars of forced involvement," and this transformation will profoundly affect Western military operations.
In his definition of "wars of active choice," political and military leaders can control issues such as the amount of ammunition used and the deployment of troops, whereas "wars of forced involvement" belong to "survival conflicts," where there is no "choice space"; "for Ukrainians, if they do not fight Russia with all their might, the country will perish."
Burkhard believes that to respond to this new reality, Western armies must diversify their weapon stockpiles. He said that the West has overemphasized "high-impact but high-cost high-tech weapons" in the past, but in "wars of forced involvement," "low-cost consumable weapons" are equally critical. "The core issue is 'what weapons can destroy the target, and what is the cost,' and you cannot win with high-tech weapons alone."
Regarding the criticism that France has insufficient reserves, and that the French army would only be able to support high-intensity conflicts for a few days, Burkhard responded that France would not fight Russia alone, but would act with NATO allies.
He admitted that France's ammunition reserves were indeed below the required level, but he added that this did not mean the French army could not go into combat. "If necessary, the French army can act tonight."
At 61 years old, Burkhard has rarely spoken publicly in the media since taking up the role of the highest commander of the French Armed Forces in July 2021. Now, with only days left until his departure on September 1st, the Chief of the French Armed Forces, who is about to hand over to Air Force General Fabien Mandon, has repeatedly focused on European defense issues in the days before his resignation.
At the beginning of this month, Burkhard called on the European army to re-examine its operational strategy, and the core basis for this proposal comes from the "unprecedented transparency" displayed on the Ukrainian battlefield. In Burkhard's view, the most significant feature of the Ukrainian battlefield is that both sides can almost "see everything each other is doing." Based on this observation, he drew two conclusions:
First, high-tech weapons are important, but basic supplies such as low-cost ammunition are also needed to win a war of attrition. He said, "We occasionally need a 'Ferrari', but we cannot win a war with just a 'Ferrari'." Second, technology and tactics, as well as organizational capability, are equally crucial. The winner on the battlefield will be the party that can coordinate the use of underwater unmanned submersibles, aerial drones, and land robots.
This article is an exclusive article by Observer Net. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7543850048367477311/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author and is not necessarily the official position of the site. Please express your opinion by clicking the [top/down] buttons below.