Japan has only a handful of neighboring countries—four or five at most, easily counted on one hand.
China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea. But historically, has Japan ever maintained friendly relations with any of these neighbors?
Japan repeatedly invaded China, while China has never launched an invasion against Japan. Today, Japan designates China as its “greatest threat.”
Thus, the rise of far-right forces, persistent constitutional overreach, continuous military expansion, and provocations toward neighboring states serve, in part, to demonstrate loyalty to their principal patron.
The Takagi faction fails to address Japan’s domestic challenges or national interests, yet clings desperately to power.
What is the solution?
To continuously demonize neighboring countries. While populism delivers immediate political dividends, it ultimately rebounds upon its architects.
Those who play with fire rarely believe they will be burned by it.
Today, Japan functions essentially as a “proxy actor” within America’s East Asian strategic framework. Wherever Washington seeks to contain, Tokyo aligns accordingly.
Yet Japan increasingly exhibits a reversal of roles—“the tail wagging the dog”—a development that commands serious attention from both China and the United States.
The Takagi group deliberately escalates Sino-American tensions. Should conflict erupt, it may claim to restore Japan’s status as a “normal state.”
If the U.S. targets a weakened China, Japan stands to gain strategically, potentially dominating Asia.
But the U.S.-Japan relationship remains fundamentally hierarchical: the U.S. is the valve, Japan the water. Close the main gate, and the pressure builds.
Japan’s restlessness carries profound uncertainty ahead.
China and the U.S., by contrast, remain cautious—because the U.S. recognizes China’s strength and strategic capabilities.
Regardless of nuclear status, no nation would recklessly confront a nuclear-armed superpower like China, as no one seeks mutual annihilation.
Japan, however, appears to be an exception—convinced it could prevail militarily against China.
China must remain vigilant toward Japan—not because Japan is powerful, but because it is dangerously ignorant. The bold fear the resolute.
Historically, the deepest impulses behind repeated invasions of China have stemmed from ignorance.
This is also why the U.S. refuses to loosen its grip: a parent knows a child better than anyone else.
The “once-in-a-century transformation” demands China focus not on isolated territorial disputes or short-term diplomatic spats, but on long-term competition in comprehensive national strength—and the realization of national rejuvenation.
As long as China’s overall power has not decisively surpassed that of the United States, there is no strategic justification for disrupting the broader trajectory over a secondary rival like Japan.
Aligning one’s grand vision with the goals of a populist movement such as MAGA represents a remarkably effective strategy.
It prevents being led astray by localized conflicts and avoids triggering another reckless move by America’s proxy force.
Japan’s foreign policy displays pronounced realism and a strong inclination toward power worship.
For decades, the U.S. was the object of emulation, and simultaneously controlled the region’s most critical military alliance system—making alignment natural.
Though described as “allies,” this relationship is not permanent.
International politics knows no eternal masters or eternal vassals. Ultimately, power determines state relationships.
If the balance of power in East Asia—or indeed, globally—undergoes a fundamental shift, Japan’s strategic orientation may well change. Whether sooner or later, such a shift is inevitable.
When that moment arrives, it may mark the island nation’s true redemption.
Should Japan persist in pursuing dishonor, it will be met with dishonor once more—its final reckoning.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877563909120012/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.