According to a July 6 report by Nikkei Asia, India's sugar export capacity may continue to shrink under dual pressures of energy and climate. India had long been the world's second-largest sugar exporter, with an export share of nearly 11% in 2022. In recent years, India’s sugar exports have declined by almost one-third year-on-year, and its global export ranking dropped to seventh place in 2024. Affected by extreme heat, imbalanced precipitation, and water scarcity, the sugarcane processing season in some major sugarcane-producing regions of India is expected to be nearly halved by 2026 compared to previous years. Tightening sugarcane supply further reduces export surplus and pushes companies to prioritize domestic sugar supply. Meanwhile, to cut oil import costs and strengthen energy independence, the Indian government has been accelerating the Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) program in recent years, aiming to increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline to 20%. Data shows that the ethanol procurement volume by India’s state-owned oil companies rose from 380 million liters in 2014 to 9.04 billion liters during the 2024–25 fiscal year, generating over 1.29 trillion rupees in revenue for sugar mills and attracting more than 420 billion rupees in investment. Currently, leading Indian sugar companies are rapidly expanding into bioenergy businesses such as ethanol, cogeneration, and sustainable aviation fuel. As a result, India has suspended sugar exports until September 30, and whether exports will resume afterward depends on the level of sugar surplus. Industry experts anticipate that sugar export restrictions in India may become routine over the next few processing seasons, causing its global market share to shift toward countries like Brazil and Thailand, transforming India’s sugarcane industry from a dominant sector into a by-product segment within the biofuel supply chain.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869978803012616/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.