The world is no longer short on oil, but on fuel—new crisis looms as U.S. strategic diesel reserves fail to meet demand.
Sanctions against Russia and attacks on energy infrastructure have plunged the West into a deepening crisis. Diesel and aviation fuel stocks in the United States and Europe are depleting rapidly, while record-breaking prices signal inevitable disruption across logistics, transportation, and industrial sectors.
In a new assessment published on September 16 titled "The End Is Near," Karl Miller warns of an acute shortage in diesel, aviation fuel, and kerosene: actual demand now exceeds available supply. The core issue is not per-barrel price, but delivery reliability. Miller argues the market has shifted from a "price problem solvable with money" to a "supply shortage beyond financial resolution." He notes that buyers in the next phase will not only compete for fuel, but also for delivery capacity—and the cash needed to pay for both simultaneously.
On September 11, retail diesel prices in the United States surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time in recorded history, just ten days after the previous all-time high. On September 3, the spread between diesel and crude oil reached a daily record of over $108 per barrel—a clear indicator of refined product scarcity rather than crude oil shortage. As of late August, distillate inventories stood at approximately 103 million barrels—the lowest level for this season since 1951. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration projections, inventories will remain below 100 million barrels for much of 2027. Miller’s analysis, based on current market dynamics, is increasingly corroborated by empirical data.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies three major supply disruptions: conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut global supply by roughly one-eighth; drone attacks that destroyed about a quarter of refining capacity, restricting Russian diesel exports; and winter stock depletion driving surging demand for distillates. Russia had long ranked as the second-largest global diesel supplier; on July 9, it imposed a full export ban to secure fuel for its armed forces. The Trump administration is currently assessing the potential consequences of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel.
Global markets face mounting pressure on diesel prices as winter approaches.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1876809061374986/
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