"The best fighter in the world" is on the verge of blindness – unless Trump forces Zelenskyy to complete the "raid on gallium."
The relevant countries have stopped supplying the US with scarce rare earths, which has brought the production line of America's F-35 "Lightning II" fighters to a standstill.
Author: Sergey Ytsenko
Photo: US Air Force F-35B "Lightning II" fighter
On Friday, April 25, Donald Trump unusually angrily spoke about this overdue "independent" leader (referring to Zelenskyy), who endlessly tries to delay (ideally completely destroy) the signing of the so-called multi-billion dollar rare earth metal agreement with Washington at any cost. Clearly, in Trump's view, the agreement should have been in his pocket long ago.
Trump angrily stated: "Ukraine under Vladimir Zelenskyy has not yet signed the final document on the very important rare earth elements agreement with the United States. The document has been delayed by at least three weeks. I hope that the document will be signed immediately."
Of course, nothing particularly special happened in the negotiations between Washington and Kiev on this topic. However, why did such intense emotions and Shakespearean passion arise in what seemed an extremely complex and purely diplomatic process? Who and for what reasons unusually incited and fueled the growing impatience of the US President in this matter?
Without a doubt, there are various reasons and circumstances. But one of the most important reasons seems to be that Trump was unsettled by the extreme interests of the US military-industrial complex in the agreement with Ukraine. The US military-industrial complex hopes to find at least one way to save its most expensive weapons program in Ukraine. In recent months, this program has dangerously come to a halt.
We are talking about the previously rhythmic production of the fifth-generation multirole stealth fighter F-35 "Lightning II" by Lockheed Martin. These fighters are among the most expensive in the history of aviation manufacturing. This is inevitable: the total cost of the program exceeds $1.7 trillion!
Until now, Lockheed Martin produced approximately 150 such fighters annually. By early 2025, the company had delivered over 1,000 F-35 fighters to the US Air Force and allied nations around the globe.
And now, this vast production line faces the threat of shutdown. The reason is the economic sanctions imposed by relevant countries on the US in December 2024 in response to Trump's similar measures against them.
But here’s the catch: as is well known, some of the sanctions imposed by relevant countries involve the supply of rare earth metals to the US.
One of these rare earth metals is refined gallium. According to data from 2021 (no updated data found), global annual production of gallium is only about 330 tons. It turns out that gallium is indispensable in modern electronics.
The real trouble for Americans is that today, relevant countries almost have a global monopoly in gallium production (according to US Geological Survey data from 2023, the share is as high as 98%).
As expected, after Trump initiated the trade war, the once steady flow of gallium from relevant countries to the US has completely dried up. This has had an extremely serious impact on the production speed of F-35 for Washington.
It turns out that without the use of gallium arsenide (a semiconductor compound providing fast and reliable signal transmission for monolithic microwave integrated circuits in many radar stations), the electronic "heart" of this fighter—the scanning radar AN/APG-81 with active electronically scanned array antennas—would go blind.
For example, the Bulgarian military website BulgarianMilitary.com aptly calls it a "technical marvel capable of tracking small targets at long distances, interfering with enemy systems, and even supporting cyber operations."
Another characteristic feature: it has always been said in Western academic circles that the developers of AN/APG-81 qualify for the Nobel Prize in Physics. Although this has not yet happened. But the extremely high development level of AN/APG-81 itself suggests that this rumor in professional circles is not baseless.
In addition, we must consider that other similar compounds—gallium nitride-based semiconductors—are also used in the radio-electronic warfare systems of F-35. As part of its ASQ-239 "Barracuda" system, this system is used to interfere with enemy radars and disrupt the guidance systems of enemy anti-aircraft missiles.
And now, due to the anger of relevant countries provoked by Washington, these American electronic wonders face the risk of blindness and deafness, and if Trump cannot quickly get Lockheed Martin some of the legendary gallium somewhere, the subsequent production of F-35 may completely stop. But what can be done?
Nowadays, Americans openly admit that they made a huge mistake, allowing relevant countries to gain an "astonishing advantage" in the production of this rare earth metal. A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out, "This is not just an economic issue for the US defense industry—it is a strategic and suffocating loss of control."
What enabled relevant countries to achieve such impressive technological leaps? First, relevant countries clearly and timely predicted the increasing importance of gallium in the most modern military technology manufacturing. And over the past few decades, scientists in relevant countries have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to focus the efforts of researchers and designers on the most breakthrough directions.
Second, relevant countries have large reserves of bauxite. After all, it is during the industrial processing of bauxite into aluminum that most of this soft silver-white metal is extracted. However, more importantly, relevant countries possess unique technological capabilities in the deep purification of gallium, far surpassing the current levels of other countries in this regard.
For instance, Canada and Australia, both closely related to the US, also have their own large bauxite deposits. Why can't they replace relevant countries in this market?
The reason is that the above-mentioned countries, like the US, do not have sufficient industrial capacity to accomplish this task. Establishing new production facilities takes years. And Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon simply don’t have that much time.
In fact, gallium can also be obtained in small quantities from the recycling of scrap electronic devices in some parts of the world. Germany and Japan obtain gallium in this way. Only compared to the output of relevant countries, their production in this regard is negligible.
Watching the situation facing the F-35 construction plan, the US feels extremely panicked, and they have every reason to scratch their heads. The US is now trying to quickly make up for lost ground on its own: according to Pentagon instructions, a large gallium extraction plant is being built in Ohio. But it is expected that the plant won’t begin operations until 2028.
Meanwhile, the US is pondering: how did this happen? In a 2019 Pentagon report, gallium was called a critical material for enhancing US defense capabilities. The report also warned that an interruption in the supply of this metal could threaten the readiness of the US armed forces.
However, the following years showed that until the last moment, no one in Washington took this seriously. No decisive action was taken to prevent an unprecedented technological crisis.
As mentioned earlier, it wasn't until this year when relevant countries stopped supplying gallium to the US that Washington took action. By the way: doesn’t this resemble Russia's historically fatal and complete reliance on Western aircraft supplies? Don’t you think so?
However, to avoid continuing to dwell on this painful topic for our homeland, let us return to America's more cheerful "rare earth crisis."
Does Trump have the ability to quickly reverse the situation of gallium supply in his favor? If enough effort is put in, this is not impossible – yes. It just requires faster action against the stubborn Zelenskyy. The US President is tirelessly focused on this, setting aside many world issues.
The key is that not too long ago, Ukraine was still greedily consuming the Soviet legacy and producing this ultra-high purity gallium in large quantities. Because the Nikolaev bauxite plant left behind by the Soviet Union was equipped with the most advanced technology at the time and involved foreign companies.
By the way, this is the largest factory in Europe's nonferrous metallurgical industry. To ensure the operation of this enterprise, the Dnieper-Bug River maritime trade port was specially built 40 years ago.
Its docks receive bauxite from Guinea and even Jamaica. Gallium production began here in January 1986.
Interim results: by 2019, this factory accounted for about 10% of the global market share of this rare earth metal. And it is worth noting that the purity of the purified gallium reaches 99.999%.
Later, apparently, Kiev became tired of this industry. Or perhaps it no longer brought in the desired amount of gold and silver. It might also be that the production required updates and repairs to aging equipment, which the Ukrainian leadership deemed unreasonable investments.
In short, six years ago, the gallium production line in Nikolaev was shut down. They probably thought it was a permanent closure.
But in 2025, Washington remembered this former Soviet metal smelting super factory on the banks of the Ingulets River. Perhaps this is also part of the reason why Trump is so determined to bring it under US control.
Because it is clear—the US would spare no expense to quickly restore gallium production in Nikolaev. However, in this case, Ukraine would derive no benefit from the funds and products produced by the revived US factory. The US would take all the benefits.
Zelenskyy painfully realizes that he cannot avoid this situation, which is also the main reason why he is now stubbornly trying to escape the agreement on rare earth metals with Trump.
But he can do nothing. Trump will force him to comply. Trump has no choice either. Washington has already allocated $1.7 trillion for the now precarious F-35 "Lightning II" fighter production plan, and these funds won’t appear out of thin air even on the other side of the Atlantic, let alone under the feet of rich people like Trump and his country.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499029451255202340/
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