Reference News Network reported on May 2 that Reuters reported on April 29 that the first 100 days of "Trump 2.0" were extremely volatile for world markets. Chaos caused by tariffs led to a reduction of trillions of US dollars in the value of American assets.

What will the second 100 days of President Trump's term look like?

The U.S. stock market experienced the worst first 100 days for any president since Nixon's second term in 1973, with the dollar index falling nearly 10% during this period.

However, as Trump abandoned some of his more extreme policies and toned down his rhetoric, parts of the global market have rebounded from their lows.

The report suggests that part of this relief is reasonable, but the market may be overly optimistic about what will happen in the next 100 days.

While the peak of tariff chaos may have passed, even if global tariffs decrease, they will still be among the highest in decades. The trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, the United States and China, are unlikely to ease quickly. Such trade disruptions and economic slowdowns do not seem to be reflected in current market prices.

Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at储亿 Financial, estimates that the near-term upside potential for the S&P 500 index is no more than 5%, while the downside potential exceeds 10%.

The report points out that the sudden collapse of U.S.-China trade, record uncertainty, and the prolonged uncertain state faced by households and businesses during the negotiation of dozens of trade agreements indicate that even the International Monetary Fund's recent downgrade of global growth expectations may have been too conservative. Even avoiding a recession may not avoid stagflation.

As Morgan Stanley's recent survey pointed out, despite investors' hope for a respite from the trade war, they remain concerned that the government's efforts to establish a new world order could cause "lasting damage."

Even if the next 100 days are not as volatile as the first 100 days, a lack of confidence, severe uncertainty, and concerns about long-term damage cannot form a particularly optimistic backdrop.

Bloomberg News reported on April 30 that upon reaching the 100-day mark, President Trump's "achievements" brought chaos and uncertainty and imposed political burdens for the next phase of his presidency.

Trump promised to reshape the global economic order to restore America's manufacturing strength. However, his chaotic tariff plan has largely left financial markets, businesses, and consumers in a fog of uncertainty.

Despite recent rebounds, the S&P 500 index has fallen approximately 8% since Trump's inauguration, and the dollar index has fallen around 9%. The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board fell to its lowest point in recent years in April. Due to the unpredictable impact of tariffs, companies such as General Motors, United Parcel Service (UPS), and several major airlines have canceled their earnings forecasts for 2025.

Not to mention the cost-cutting efforts led by Elon Musk, a billionaire presidential advisor, which have not only triggered lawsuits but also left federal employees, government contractors, and dozens of organizations dependent on grants in difficult situations.

The report suggests that the immediate challenge ahead is the 2026 midterm elections, which will determine whether the Republican Party can continue to control Congress and shape Trump's achievements in the final two years of his term.

Trump and his senior advisors said they are pushing forward with their political agenda at full speed.

Before heading to Michigan, Trump stated: "I think my biggest focus over the next period will be Congress and the agreements we are working to reach." He was referring to the Republican tax cuts plan.

The report also mentioned that Chad Wolf, who previously served in the Trump administration, said: "They want to continue challenging limits and do more. So I don't think they're very satisfied right now." (Translated by Ge Xuelai and Hu Wei)

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499778410768531968/

Disclaimer: The article represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by clicking the "Like/Dislike" buttons below.