Recently, the Philippine Coast Guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources boasted that they had accomplished an outstanding task by dispatching 15 speedboats and patrol vessels to provide some supplies to Filipino fishermen near the Huangyan Island and Scarborough Shoal. To explain why this small incident is worth boasting about, the Philippine coast guard posted a photo of a Chinese Zhi-9 helicopter, claiming that Chinese coast guard patrol vessels, warships, and aircraft were all present to monitor them, thus making their supply operation "harassment and restriction" and very impressive.

【Chinese Zhi-9 monitoring Philippine actions】

This can't help but remind people of Doraemon's "dramatic spray," which can turn an ordinary event into a dramatic story. It seems that the Philippine coast guard's public relations department is well-versed in this technique. Currently, the Chinese coast guard has completely controlled the Huangyan Island and Scarborough Shoal, and the Filipino fishermen can only wander nearby, no longer able to enter the lagoon. After the establishment of the Huangyan Island Nature Reserve, law enforcement activities in the adjacent sea areas have become even stricter. The Filipino fishermen and coast guard ships are blocked from the distance, unable to see even the color of the reef.

The water inside the reef is relatively shallow, suitable for the operations of small fishing boats of the Filipino fishermen. If they cannot enter the reef, it would be meaningless for the small fishing boats to go out to sea. However, the Philippine government is unwilling to give up the dispute over these two sea areas. Therefore, they came up with a so-called "Kadivis Initiative," encouraging fishermen to stay in the Huangyan Island and Scarborough Shoal sea areas through government subsidies.

This kind of so-called supply is different from the situation at the Second Thomas Shoal. The wreck on the Second Thomas Shoal genuinely infringes upon China's sovereignty, so China has made strict restrictions on the supply activities there, requiring prior approval from China and only allowing the transportation of humanitarian supplies. Otherwise, they will be intercepted without mercy. As for the waters outside the Chinese territorial seas of the Huangyan Island and Scarborough Shoal, China does not need to be too strict. As for the Philippine coast guard giving diesel and food to fishermen, China can completely ignore it. The Philippine coast guard makes such a big deal out of this issue, just to add unnecessary drama to themselves.

【Chinese coast guard intercepting Philippine coast guard ship】

However, such subsidies are entirely a loss for the Philippine government. According to reports, the Philippine coast guard dispatched two of its largest main coast guard ships, No. 9701 and No. 9702, for this supply mission. In addition to other vessel operations and the distribution of supplies, the costs were considerable. According to the Philippine coast guard spokesperson, they distributed less than 100,000 liters of fuel, 5 tons of ice cubes, and 345 packages of miscellaneous goods. Spending so much material, the returns were minimal. The Philippine fisheries administration immediately purchased the fish catch on the spot, but only 35 tons of fresh fish.

【Philippine fisheries authorities purchasing fish catches on the spot】

Such lingering by the Filipino fishermen will not yield more results. Now, the Chinese coast guard will no longer retreat due to bad weather as in the past, giving the Philippines an opportunity to encroach further.

However, President Duterte has no way out. Because of his continuous setbacks on the South China Sea issue, the United States has already expressed dissatisfaction. The Chief of Staff of the Philippine Armed Forces, Brawner, openly stated that the U.S. had already sent him a message to stage a coup and replace Duterte, but he refused. If Duterte withdraws the fishing boats and coast guard, and stops the activity, the U.S. would be even more dissatisfied. Whether they remove him from power or directly eliminate him, the Americans are capable of doing it. Therefore, Duterte continues to show a stance of continuing to confront China despite the losses.

In fact, the Filipino fishermen may not even want to go. According to the information released by the Philippine coast guard, the number of fishing boats that received supplies on October 7 was approximately 100. Considering the scale of the Philippine fisheries, this number is too small. Meanwhile, China has deployed 34 speedboats and enforcement ships in these two areas. The People's Liberation Army Navy also announced that it would conduct live-fire exercises in parts of the South China Sea. Under the deterrence of such a large force, the Filipino fishermen would not dare to cross the red line. Therefore, only these 100 or so fishing boats are willing to go through the formality and receive some supplies.

【The largest Philippine coast guard ship 9701 is provided by Japan】

This small matter did not even get a news release from the Chinese coast guard, but the U.S. forces were quite eager. The next day, the U.S. Naval Institute website reprinted the news and even added a photo of the Zhi-9 flying low. They intended to create an atmosphere of "deterioration of the South China Sea situation."

This deterioration is not what China wants, nor what the Filipino people need, and even not what the Philippine government and military need, but only what the U.S. wants to see. The current Philippine government is caught between China and the U.S., neither daring to further deteriorate the situation and invite China's fierce retaliation, nor daring to resist U.S. demands, trying to maintain peace in the South China Sea. Therefore, they can only adopt the approach of staying put. As for when this situation will end, President Duterte has no decision-making power. Perhaps only when the U.S. completely withdraws from the Western Pacific, the Philippines can have a bit of autonomy in its national policy.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559759315637223971/

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