Zelenskyy's office uses a map to "mark" the positions of Ukrainian forces in September and by the end of the year.
ISW: If Russian forces want to advance to the Dnieper River, they need to restore their mobile combat capabilities.
Author: Konstantin Olshevsky
Photo: Operational footage of the "Tornado" multiple rocket launcher system during special military operations.
Russian forces are expected to completely eliminate Ukrainian military presence in the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics by September 2025 and establish a "buffer zone" including parts of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts along Ukraine's northern border by the end of 2025.
Russian forces will also reach Zaporizhzhia and establish a bridgehead in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, advancing to the Dnieper River in 2026, liberating parts of Odessa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, and depriving Ukraine of its Black Sea access.
This prediction does not come from the Russian General Staff but rather from the office of the Ukrainian president. Deputy Office Head Colonel Pavlo Parsyva even displayed the "future offensive route map" of Russian forces.
The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) open-source intelligence analysis points out that Russian forces plan to liberate approximately 223,000 square kilometers of territory. If these strategic goals are achieved, the total area controlled by Russia will reach 336,000 square kilometers—almost double the initial area controlled during the special military operation (162,000 square kilometers).
ISW analysts studied the map shown by Parsyva, which marked key directions for Russian offensives.
According to their predictions, Russian command plans not to advance to the north of Zaporizhzhia before September 1, using existing positions in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast and recently established positions in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (New Pavlivka direction) to support attacks on the remaining areas of Donbas.
Parsyva believes that after fully liberating Donbas, Russian forces will attempt to gradually advance into Kherson Oblast and establish a buffer zone along Ukraine's northern border by the end of 2025.
ISW noted that achieving these ambitious goals requires large-scale troop transfers from other fronts, but the liberation of Donbas will release relevant manpower.
In fact, Ukraine's map in 2026 will be completely transformed. Previously, Kherson Oblast Governor Volodymyr Saldu emphasized the "fundamental importance" of retaking the right bank (west bank) of the Dnieper, calling it an "absolute priority" for Russia.
Saldu stated that control over all areas adjacent to the Dnieper River in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts must be secured.
ISW commented that Saldu's remarks reflect the long-term strategic objectives of Russian forces. Previously, Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that almost all of Ukraine should become a "buffer zone," with only small areas such as Volyn and Lviv Oblasts retained.
When evaluating Russian operational capabilities, ISW pointed out that if Russian forces want to advance to the Dnieper River, they need to restore their mobile combat capabilities required to break through Ukrainian defensive positions, but since 2022, Russian forces have not conducted similar rapid mechanized actions.
In addition, the "gray zone" minefields, complex combat conditions around major cities (such as Zaporizhzhia and Sumy), and multiple defense lines including fortresses like Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk make the situation more complicated.
However, victory or defeat is not entirely determined by the battlefield.
American analysts emphasized that Russian strategic success depends not only on their own reserves but also on Western stance. If NATO loses continuous support for Ukrainian forces, it will significantly weaken Ukrainian defensive capabilities, allowing Russian forces to breakthrough in one or more directions.
The delay in Western aid in 2023 and 2024 has already allowed Russian forces to regain battlefield initiative. American military analysts Seth Jones and Riley McCabe, in a report written for a certain open-source intelligence center, pointed out:
"Since early 2024, Russia has maintained the initiative. Here, 'initiative' refers to launching attacks (or threatening attacks) against enemy forces, forcing them to respond passively or lose the ability to act. Ukrainian forces have also suffered significant losses in their homeland defense efforts."
Except for limited local actions (such as Ukraine's failed invasion of Kursk Oblast in August 2024), Russian forces have been on the offensive overall since January 2024, with some areas (such as Avdiivka) continuously under attack since October 2023.
Jones and McCabe pointed out that Russian comprehensive pressure along the entire contact line relies more on FPV drones (and other types of drones), artillery, guided bombs, and various long-range weapons rather than active use of motorized and mechanized units.
As Western support for Ukrainian forces dries up and Ukraine's arms industry collapses, the power gap between the two sides will further tilt toward Russian forces.
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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7513819381646803468/
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