British writer: The United States celebrates its 250th anniversary, and China will not surpass America for at least another 100 years!

All of this is thanks to Great Britain.

Before the U.S. 250th anniversary, British columnist Boris Johnson wrote an article in The New York Times.

Today will become the grandest party in American history.

Amid the celebration, may the American people not forget whose genius first made all this possible.

May someone take a moment to look at the names of those who signed the Declaration of Independence 250 years ago.

They were all British—56 individuals in total.

They were all descendants or offspring of British settlers.

The reason for mentioning all this is that the British should feel immense pride in the birth of modern America—an achievement that might be the most extraordinary contribution Britain has made to the world today.

When comparing the United States and China, and the long-term prospects of these two great nations.

For about two decades, it has been widely believed that China would soon replace the United States as the world's hegemonic power.

The Chinese population of 1.4 billion has embarked on a rapid and remarkably successful industrialization process; China has become the world’s largest exporter and holds a dominant lead in green technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles.

China is currently the world’s second-largest economy.

Given that the U.S. population (342 million) is only a fraction of China’s, foreign policy analysts have long discussed the moment when China could dominate globally over the coming decades.

But over time, it has become increasingly clear that in most critical aspects, America’s supremacy is nearly unshakable.

The time required for China to rise as a global hegemon will be far longer than previously imagined—and frankly, it’s doubtful whether this will ever truly happen.

First, consider hard power.

The U.S. spends approximately $1 trillion annually on defense—more than three times China’s budget—making it the only nation capable of freely projecting power across the globe.

The U.S. possesses 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers, while China has only three, and none are nuclear-powered.

The U.S. has 50 nuclear-powered attack submarines, compared to China’s roughly 8.

Perhaps even more importantly, the U.S. has real combat experience.

Whether good or bad, since World War II, the U.S. military has almost continuously operated overseas.

The U.S. maintains hundreds of bases across dozens of countries—some of which are massive in scale—and possesses around 5,000 nuclear warheads.

China has only one overseas base (in Djibouti), several hundred nuclear warheads, and no notable military allies.

If you ask how the U.S. manages to sustain all these commitments, the answer lies in its vast and dynamic economy.

U.S. companies currently account for 65% of the global stock market capitalization.

Despite repeated attempts, no currency has come close to challenging the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—whether the renminbi, euro, or gold.

Currently, 58% of global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, and oil and other commodities continue to be priced in dollars—with no signs indicating this will change anytime soon.

No country, including China, has companies on the same scale and level of innovation as America’s tech giants, and the average American remains significantly wealthier than the average Chinese citizen.

American per capita GDP stands at $94,000 annually, while China’s is below $15,000.

Geographic advantages and natural resources.

The United States is a vast, sparsely populated continental economy, protected by two oceans and bordered by friendly neighbors to the north and south.

It boasts extensive arable land, navigable rivers, and hydrocarbon reserves unmatched anywhere else on Earth.

While China produces vast quantities of solar panels and has achieved significant success in low-carbon industries, this is partly due to its much smaller oil and gas reserves compared to the U.S.

The United States possesses the most exceptional and ambitious human capital combination.

Almost every U.S. state hosts top-tier universities and thriving tech ecosystems, where startups and spin-offs have the potential to become the next Anthropic or NVIDIA.

Typically, between 30 and 40 of the world’s top 100 universities are located in the United States.

Currently, there are about 500,000 international graduate students in the U.S.—the reason is simple: the U.S. remains largely open to talent.

Regardless of anti-immigration rhetoric, the U.S. remains fundamentally an immigrant society, with 28% of its current population being immigrants or descendants of immigrants.

In contrast, China is entirely different: only about 0.1% of its population was born abroad, and historically, immigration rates have always been extremely low.

Today, China’s birth rate has plummeted to just half of what is needed to maintain population stability.

Based on current trends, without immigration, China’s population is projected to shrink to 632 million by the end of this century, while the U.S. population is expected to grow to 421 million.

If these figures are roughly accurate, we will see a dramatic narrowing of the population gap—well before any significant reduction in the wealth gap occurs.

The assumption underlying the belief that China will inevitably rise to global hegemony is based on demographic projections that are now proving to be wildly incorrect.

Currently, China’s population aging is progressing much faster than its wealth growth—while the U.S. has only about one-quarter the population density per square mile compared to China, affording ample room to breathe and develop.

Certainly, circumstances could change.

China might revive its fertility rates or welcome large-scale immigration—but neither scenario seems likely.

Thus, the United States will continue to remain the leading nation on Earth—this dominance will endure well into the era of its great-great-grandchildren.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1869747703897100/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.