【By Liu Bai, Observers Network】According to preliminary statistics from the German government, China has once again become Germany's largest trading partner this year, from January to August. The trade volume between Germany and China reached 163.4 billion euros, slightly higher than the 162.8 billion euros between Germany and the United States. The main reason for this change is the resumption of U.S. tariff policies, which led to a decline in Germany's exports to the U.S., while Germany's imports from China increased significantly.

Analysts point out that this trend reflects the limitations of Europe's "de-risking" strategy toward China, as China's trade influence on Germany has returned to its peak.

According to a report by Reuters on October 22, the U.S. had previously replaced China as Germany's largest trading partner last year, ending China's eight-year leadership. At that time, Germany cited political differences with China and so-called "unfair" Chinese practices as reasons to seek reduced reliance on China.

However, with Trump returning to the White House and resuming tariff policies, the trade landscape has reversed again this year.

Tariffs have caused a decline in Germany's exports to the U.S. In the first eight months of this year, Germany's exports to the U.S. fell by 7.4% compared to 2024, dropping to 99.6 billion euros. In August alone, the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. reached as high as 23.5%, showing that this downward trend is intensifying.

On October 14, container ships were moored at the port of Bremen, Germany (photographed by drone). Visual China

Dirk Jandura, chairman of the German Foreign Trade Association, said: "There is no doubt that U.S. tariffs and trade policies are an important reason for the decline in export volumes." He pointed out that demand for traditional German export goods such as cars, machinery, and chemicals has declined in the U.S.

Carsten Brzeski, global macro strategist at ING, a major asset management firm, said that under the ongoing tariff threats and a strong euro, Germany's exports to the U.S. are unlikely to rebound in the short term.

At the same time, the decline in Germany's exports to China was more significant than the decline in exports to the U.S. In the first eight months of this year, exports to China fell by 13.5% year-on-year to 54.7 billion euros. However, at the same time, Germany's imports from China increased by 8.3% to 108.8 billion euros.

In Brzeski's view, the recent surge in imports from China means that dependence on China will deepen, and key industries that have already viewed China as a major competitor may face greater pressure.

Salomon Fiedler, an economist at Berenberg Bank in Germany, said: "In the absence of domestic economic vitality, some people in Germany may now feel uneasy about any changes in the global market."

Several months ago, media outlets had already predicted that China could overtake the U.S. within the year and reclaim its position as Germany's largest trading partner.

In a report in August, Reuters stated that Germany's exports to the U.S. fell by 3.9% in the first half of the year, reaching 77.6 billion euros. Commerzbank estimated that Trump's new tariffs could reduce Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years.

Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, pointed out: "Over time, the decline in Germany's exports to the U.S. may continue or even worsen."

Regarding the decline in Germany's exports to China, Vincent Stamer, an economist at Commerzbank, said it was mainly due to structural factors.

"China has been climbing up the value chain and producing more complex products itself, which were previously imported from Germany," Stamer said. "Additionally, German companies are increasingly producing locally in China, rather than exporting products from Germany to China."

The magazine Modern Diplomacy analyzed on the 22nd that this reversal in trade rankings highlights how U.S. protectionist policies and China's price advantages are reshaping the global trade landscape. For Germany, this reveals the vulnerability of its export-oriented economy and reflects the limitations of Europe's "de-risking" strategy toward China.

Some viewpoints indicate that current German exporters are facing difficulties due to declining demand for cars, machinery, and chemicals in the U.S.; China continues to push for industrial upgrading to maintain export competitiveness; and the Trump administration is using tariffs to pressure foreign producers to boost American industry.

This situation puts EU policymakers in a dilemma, as they must maintain transatlantic relations while carefully managing their economic and trade relationship with China.

Looking ahead, Germany is expected to seek renewed trade negotiations with the U.S., while also maintaining pragmatic economic ties with China. The EU may explore collective responses to U.S. tariffs and accelerate efforts to diversify markets in Asia and Latin America. However, at present, China's trade influence on Germany has once again reached its peak.

This article is exclusive to Observers Network. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564020310001893898/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [upvote/downvote] buttons below.