[Source/Observer Network, Liu Chenghui]

Trump's tariff policies have sparked skepticism and backlash on a global scale, with China's immediate strong countermeasures drawing particular attention.

"China's economy already has sufficient resilience to withstand the impact of tariffs; by contrast, the U.S. economy is already overburdened." David Fickling, a columnist for Bloomberg, pointed out in his commentary article on April 6th that although there is a saying about trade wars that "the best counterattack is no counterattack," China is a rare exception.

He analyzed that through decades of planning, China has built an economic system capable of withstanding the impact of a trade war. Moreover, due to differences in the trade goods structure between China and the United States, China is affected far less than the United States—mainly importing consumer goods like mobile phones and furniture from China, which directly increases costs for American consumers; whereas China imports mostly intermediate products like chips from the U.S., with limited impact on ordinary consumers. Additionally, China holds an advantage in diversifying its export markets, while American consumers struggle to find alternative suppliers. Trump's tariff policies may backfire, inadvertently helping China enhance its global influence.

Fickling mentioned at the beginning of his article that a common saying in trade wars is that the best counterattack is no counterattack. After all, tariff conflicts are essentially mutually destructive, increasing costs for consumers within the country by imposing tariffs on imported goods. Thus, the best solution is to stay out of such confrontations—this logic applies to most economies, but China may be a rare exception.

On April 4th, China announced a 34% import tax on all American goods in response to Trump's earlier tariff measures. In Fickling's view, the reason China dares to retaliate is because as the world's largest manufacturing nation, it has built an economic system resilient enough to withstand the impact of a trade war through decades of planning.

American consumers buy TVs from the Chinese brand Hisense. The Wall Street Journal

From the perspective of China-U.S. trade structure, the U.S.'s main imports from China focus on consumer goods: smartphones, computers, furniture, toys, etc. The Trump administration's 54% tariff on these goods will quickly lead American consumers to perceive price increases.

In contrast, China mainly imports intermediate products from the U.S.: liquefied natural gas, chips, aircraft engines, plastics, etc. The only exception is cars, but American brands (such as Buick and Chevrolet) are already weakly competitive in the Chinese market, so the impact of tariffs on them is limited.

Fickling noticed that since Trump first initiated the trade conflict in 2018, both China and the U.S. have been reducing their reliance on each other, but China has achieved more significant results.

In terms of trade dependence, the U.S.'s reliance on Chinese goods (accounting for 18.5% of total imports) is much higher than China's reliance on the U.S. (accounting for 17.2% of total exports). China's export markets have diversified, often dominating in U.S. imports, while American consumers struggle to find alternative sources. By comparison, except for aircraft engines and soybeans, the U.S. is a relatively minor supplier for almost all major product categories China imports.

"This is a key factor when considering the ability of both countries to sustain prolonged trade wars." Fickling said that Trump's tariffs primarily affect ordinary American citizens and voters who have endured four years of high inflation and interest rate pressure; further tariffs will increase public burdens, and the U.S. economy is already overstretched; whereas China's benchmark interest rates are at historical lows, providing substantial room to buffer the impact of tariffs.

Jinhua, Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang HuiLong Crystal Technology Co., Ltd., a bustling intelligent production workshop. Visual China

Fickling described Trump's tariff policy as a form of "self-inflicted harm," yet it presents an opportunity for China. While Trump imposed strict tariffs on allies, China was actively strengthening its trade relations with other countries. The U.S. once made great efforts to establish a rules-based international order, and now China can use this to demonstrate that it represents this order better than the U.S. and becomes a more friendly trade and investment partner for global non-American economies.

"If you want to avoid such a future scenario where China strengthens its rise by establishing closer ties with other countries and playing a key role in groups like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), then Trump's tariff plan is the worst possible outcome." Fickling said, although China's economy faces some challenges, international trade is not one of them. If the world is embroiled in a prolonged trade war, Trump's strongest competitor (China) is already prepared.

"China has long been preparing for this chaotic world." Previously, the British magazine The Economist also pointed out that over the past decade, China has accelerated its autonomous development process in the economic and technological fields, effectively reducing its vulnerability to external constraints such as U.S. sanctions and export controls. Moreover, China has vigorously promoted the construction of the renminbi settlement system, gradually enhancing its voice and influence on the international economic stage.

The British media noted that to fully seize economic opportunities, the Chinese government has recently taken frequent actions, encouraging private enterprises to "show their prowess," introducing more stimulus measures to promote consumption, increasing debt limits to ease local pressures, and continuously working to stabilize and reverse the real estate market downturn.

In stark contrast, "Trump's tariff policies are taking history backward, sending Detroit back to the outdated state of the 1970s."

On March 3rd, the spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce gave a talk regarding the U.S. announcement of equivalent tariffs. The spokesperson emphasized that history shows that raising tariffs does not solve America's own problems; instead, it harms both American interests and global economic development and supply chain stability. Trade wars have no winners, and protectionism offers no way forward. China urges the U.S. to immediately cancel unilateral tariff measures and properly resolve differences with trading partners through equal dialogue.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490412641351107072/

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