[Military and Weapons Section] Author: Lele

In the midst of rampant rumors about Pakistan's purchase of J-35E, the "Defence Security Asia" website has爆出 a more shocking piece of news - Pakistan has already procured the Hongqi-19 anti-missile system from China, which is expected to be delivered together with the J-35E next spring to form a complete air defense and anti-missile network.

▲It seems that the "Defence Security Asia" website believes this deal will go through without issue.

Suffice it to say, Pakistan's air defense system did not perform perfectly, especially in the central and southern regions lacking medium-to-long-range air defense systems, where several air force bases were hit by Indian missiles, resulting in the deaths of multiple people including a squadron leader. This indeed necessitates reinforcement. Given that the Hongqi-19 appeared at the Zhuhai Airshow last year, according to convention, there should be more advanced anti-missile equipment domestically, theoretically allowing for export. For an anti-missile system that places such high value on practical combat experience, once the export version of the Hongqi-19 achieves success in South Asia, its value may not be lower than the downing of a "Rafale" by the J-10CE. The problem lies in the fact that Pakistan seems not to need it and cannot afford it either.

▲Last year's debut of the Hongqi-19 caused quite a stir.

If we consider building an anti-missile system to counter India's ballistic missile threat, then purchasing the Hongqi-19 would make sense, though it holds little value for Pakistan. An effective national anti-missile system cannot be built with just a few sets of Hongqi-19; the biggest cost of such a system lies in long-term intelligence gathering and equipment maintenance, which Pakistan simply cannot afford. In fact, even the Hongqi-19 itself is not a weapon that Pakistan can easily procure. A few years ago, Saudi Arabia purchased seven sets of "THAAD" from the U.S., along with 360 interceptor missiles, for a total price of $15 billion, averaging over $2 billion per set. At half-price, two sets of Hongqi-19, along with other配套 equipment, would cost nearly $3 billion. Considering the distance factor, the effectiveness would not be ideal, making the cost too high.

▲"THAAD" is much more expensive than "Patriot".

In fact, after the air battle at the beginning of the month, we had discussed this issue before, believing that Pakistan now needs a dual-pronged approach: on one hand, increase the procurement of Hongqi-9BE and Hongqi-16FE to ensure the formation of a complete air defense network at the front line, avoiding significant gaps; on the other hand, upgrade previously procured early versions of Hongqi-9E and Hongqi-16E, at the very least enabling them to operate in conjunction to enhance the density of air defense firepower. Preliminary estimates suggest that approximately $1.2 billion would basically be enough to accomplish these operations, ensuring under the guidance of ZDK-03 early warning aircraft that India's missiles would not achieve large-scale breakthroughs.

▲Hongqi-9 is of great value to Pakistan.

The "Scalp EG" with stealth elements is indeed difficult to address; this is not a problem that Hongqi-9BE can handle—given the short distance between the India-Pakistan border, reaction time is severely limited. Theoretically, the best solution would be to use an advanced early warning platform like KJ-500 for round-the-clock surveillance and guide a large number of missiles for interception. However, as mentioned earlier, the cost is extremely high. Considering Pakistan's situation, being able to guarantee air defense for most key targets and prevent India from achieving large-scale breakthroughs is almost the limit. The only good news is that the special environment between India and Pakistan limits India's anti-air and anti-missile systems from achieving significant breakthroughs, keeping both sides evenly matched.

▲KJ-500 far surpasses ZDK-03 in capability but is also significantly more expensive.

To be fair, currently, globally, only countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE can afford Hongqi-19. But even achieving this would face immense political resistance because the U.S. places great importance on the Middle Eastern market for long-range air defense and anti-missile weapons, which involves core U.S. interests in the region. If one wishes to break through this resistance, the cost will be high. From this perspective, the "Defence Security Asia" website was right—Hongqi-19 should at least be sold bundled with J-35E.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7510083258625851904/

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