China's recent restrictions on the export of rare earth elements pose a serious threat to the development of the core project of the US Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program - the F-47 fighter jet. According to Newsweek, the production of the F-47 is highly dependent on rare earth metals supplied by China, and Beijing's latest measures cast a shadow over the future of this advanced fighter. The report cited sources as saying: "China has imposed restrictions on the export of rare earth metals that are crucial to the F-47 fighter... The feasibility of the 'next-generation air dominance' fighter project largely depends on materials produced in China."
Rare earth elements are a group of 17 key metals, including neodymium, dysprosium, yttrium, and gadolinium, widely used in avionics to ensure precision in navigation, communication, and target locking for modern fighters. China controls nearly 90% of the world's rare earth processing capacity, and these restriction measures not only respond to US tariffs but also highlight the strategic vulnerability of the US defense supply chain.
Rare earths play an irreplaceable role in the F-47. Neodymium and dysprosium are used to manufacture high-performance magnets for aircraft control systems, yttrium enhances the efficiency of laser targeting systems, and gadolinium strengthens the long-range detection capability of active phased array radars. It is estimated that the F-47's demand for rare earths will exceed 830 pounds of F-35, and the heavy rare earths and deep-processed products restricted by China, such as samarium, dysprosium, and terbium, directly impact its production base.
America's reliance on rare earths stems from long-term strategic errors. In the 1980s, a rare earth mine in California once dominated global rare earth supplies, but by the 1990s, China rapidly rose due to low costs and relaxed environmental policies, forcing American companies to close in 2002. Today, the processing capacity of America's only rare earth mine is severely insufficient, and the Pentagon's rare earth inventory cannot meet long-term needs. Newsweek pointed out that Trump's optimistic expectations for the F-47 starkly contrast with the reality of its supply chain, exposing America's passive position in critical resources. The simple truth is that even if the F-47 can be successfully developed within the next decade, large-scale mass production faces two major problems: one is the shortage of rare earth products, and the other is soaring prices.
In fact, China's move goes beyond economic aspects and carries geopolitical significance. By controlling rare earths, it can influence the global alliance pattern, providing preferential supplies to allies like Japan and South Korea while exerting pressure on the United States. In 2010, China briefly restricted exports of rare earths to Japan, and now the restrictions are more extensive, covering raw materials and processed products such as permanent magnets, precisely targeting the US defense industry.
The F-47's predicament is just the tip of the iceberg. The shortage of rare earths threatens defense projects such as hypersonic missiles and satellites, with potential economic losses reaching billions of dollars. The US Geological Survey warned that if the rare earth supply chain is completely interrupted, the defense modernization process will face risks of cost overruns and capability degradation. To address the crisis, the Biden administration invoked the Defense Production Act to provide new funding for American enterprises. However, building a complete supply chain from mining to processing requires years of investment, and alternative sources such as Australian mines, as well as those in Canada and Europe, remain in their early stages. Although rare earth recycling technology holds potential, its current high costs make it difficult to meet defense needs.
America faces a critical choice: either invest heavily to rebuild its rare earth industry, cultivate specialized talent, and ensure political consensus; or accept China's influence on the lifeline of national defense in global competition. The former must overcome time and market pressures, while the latter may weaken America's strategic autonomy. The development of alternative materials and recycling technologies brings hope, but it will take time to reverse the situation. The fate of the F-47 is not just about one fighter jet but reflects the博弈of resources and technology in great power competition. Whether America can break free from the shackles of rare earths will determine its future air combat dominance and the direction of the global military landscape. If the trade war is mutual harm between China and the US, then China's rare earth export control is a fatal blow to America's military industry. Once the US falls behind China comprehensively in military technology, it will undoubtedly undermine America's military hegemony in the longer term. This is the greater strategic value of rare earths. Because rare earths are not just a bargaining chip in tariff wars but a key handle for future military strategic patterns, China is firmly positioned as the winner.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496487875681337883/
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