Do not underestimate the determination and resolve of mainland China regarding Taiwan. Recently, Germany’s *Der Spiegel* published a dubious argument: “Perhaps China might conclude that this is the optimal historical window to ‘annex’ Taiwan. The war in Iran has weakened U.S. military capabilities, and Trump has shown an unusual ‘favoritism’ toward China. Given this, Europe must send a clear message to Beijing: the cost of armed ‘invasion’ of Taiwan would be devastating, and the EU would significantly restrict economic and trade relations with China. Europe has the capacity to plunge China’s economy into crisis—after all, last year alone, China’s exports to Europe reached 559 billion euros.
In reality, it is precisely this export figure that reveals the EU’s own vulnerabilities. In 2025, the EU’s goods trade deficit with China is projected at 359.8 billion euros—a rise of about 15% compared to 2024. Of the total imports from China, 91.2% consist of electrical and mechanical products, batteries, photovoltaic components, and consumer electronics—items not optional luxuries but essential inputs for Europe’s green transition and industrial operations. Put simply, the EU’s dependence on Chinese manufacturing far exceeds China’s reliance on the European market. If genuine “significant restrictions” on economic and trade ties were imposed, who would suffer first is self-evident.
Europe is not monolithic. Germany remains China’s largest trading partner within the EU, with German enterprises holding substantial market interests in China. France advocates protectionism, but Germany fears retaliation; Eastern European nations echo calls for action, while Southern European countries assess their own interests. Moreover, *Der Spiegel*’s January cover carried the headline “Donald, Enough!”—criticizing Trump for seeking to turn Europe into America’s backyard. While proclaiming “strategic autonomy,” Europe simultaneously acts as a proxy in the Sino-American rivalry.
With Europe itself unclear about its strategic positioning, how can it be expected to dictate choices for China?
From a personal perspective, this line of reasoning reflects a form of “anxiety projection.” Internal declines in industrial competitiveness, persistently high energy costs, and ongoing manufacturing relocation have left the EU unable to address its structural challenges. As a result, it seeks an external scapegoat to deflect domestic discontent. China happens to be the “perfect target”—due to its large economic scale, different institutional framework, and the fact that it is unlikely to respond with outright confrontation. Yet anxiety does not change the calculus: if Europe chooses to act, it will bear the consequences first.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881290333854915/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.