【"Unbreakable, Unstoppable": Multiple Constraints Lock in the Ukraine-Russia Stalemate, Human Resources May Decide the Final Outcome】

In recent periods, the intensity of long-range strikes by both Ukraine and Russia has continued to rise, yet this operational mode is unlikely to bring the conflict to an end. Russia attempts to pressure Ukraine into concessions by inflicting civilian hardships through aerial bombardments, but multiple rounds of operations have failed to achieve its goals. On one hand, Ukraine has expanded drone production; on the other, it has attempted to target Russian missile launch sites. Despite Ukraine's steadily expanding reach for deep strikes, current economic losses are still insufficient to compel Putin to accept a ceasefire.

The current Ukraine-Russia conflict has evolved from frontline positional warfare into a prolonged contest of national strength and systemic resilience behind the lines. Yet this "long-range reciprocal attacks" model is now trapped in a structural dilemma: "unbreakable, unstoppable."

First, Russia’s "civilian crisis" strategy versus Ukraine’s "air defense impasse"

Russia’s current long-range strike logic aims to undermine Ukraine’s will to resist by destroying energy and civilian infrastructure. Recent intensive bombing campaigns targeting cities such as Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih (including the deadly attack on a shopping center that caused over a hundred casualties) have resulted in significant civilian casualties. Moreover, with Ukraine’s Patriot missile stock nearing depletion, Ukrainian forces are nearly incapable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles. However, historical experience shows that sustained air raids tend to make societies more resilient rather than collapsing—Ukrainian public opinion is increasingly opposing territorial concessions to Moscow.

Second, Ukraine’s "asymmetric counterattacks" versus Russia’s "equal retaliation"

Facing mounting air defense pressure, Ukraine has adopted an asymmetric attrition strategy, deploying massive numbers of drones to conduct deep strikes on Russian territory—targeting oil refineries, defense industry supply chains, and large e-commerce warehousing networks (such as Wildberries and Ozon)—with the aim of cutting off Moscow’s war financing. However, Putin has explicitly stated that these Ukrainian attacks open the "Pandora’s Box," meaning Russia will not compromise but instead intensify strikes against Ukrainian domestic enterprises as a proportional response. This vicious cycle of "attack—retaliation—escalation" prevents either side from unilaterally stepping back.

Third, the “three locks” preventing full escalation of the conflict

Although the boundaries of attacks have been repeatedly breached, the conflict has not escalated into an unlimited total war. This is primarily due to three hard constraints:

1. Capability ceiling: Russia’s missile and drone inventories cannot sustain prolonged, high-intensity nationwide air raids; meanwhile, Ukraine’s deep-strike capabilities heavily rely on Western aid. Internal fatigue within Europe and the U.S. regarding military assistance to Ukraine, coupled with severe shortages of air defense munitions, limit Ukraine’s ability to escalate indefinitely.

2. The invisible constraint from the United States: Concerned about global oil prices and potential loss of control over the conflict, the U.S. has exerted de facto pressure on Ukraine—e.g., urging Kyiv to suspend strikes on Moscow during the CIA director’s visit to Russia—effectively placing an "invisible leash" on Ukraine.

3. NATO red lines: Direct combat between regular NATO military forces and Russian troops has never crossed the threshold, keeping the conflict confined within the framework of a "proxy war."

Fourth, the sole variable for breaking the deadlock: military manpower and mobilization

The decisive factor in this conflict remains "military manpower." With ground combat at a standstill and neither side able to sustain unchecked escalation, the international community is closely watching whether Putin will launch a large-scale mobilization in the coming months to reinvigorate ground operations. As long as this core variable remains fundamentally unchanged, Ukraine and Russia are likely to continue maintaining a symmetric pattern of mutual attrition—frontline stalemate combined with deep strikes targeting each other’s infrastructure.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1874652368058371/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.