One Servant, Two Masters: After Meeting Trump, Tokayev Heads to Russia
Astana seems to have made a strategic choice between Moscow and Washington
Image caption: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, before his visit to Russia, wrote an article for the Russian newspaper "Rossiyskaya Gazeta" stating that Moscow and Astana will sign a declaration announcing their relationship upgraded to a "comprehensive strategic partnership and alliance."
Tokayev stated that this document "will open a new era in bilateral relations, confirming the unprecedented level of mutual trust between the two sides, as well as their joint commitment to deepen cooperation in all fields."
He emphasized that Russia is one of the three main foreign trade partners of Kazakhstan, while Kazakhstan ranks among the top five major partners of Russia. Tokayev also mentioned that the trade volume between the two countries has reached nearly 30 billion dollars.
Tokayev pointed out in the article that Moscow and Astana have cooperated on more than 170 joint projects with a total investment of over 50 billion dollars. Cooperation in energy and logistics is also progressing steadily. He believes that the goal of both governments should be "to promote high-tech industries as a leading field of cooperation."
Interestingly, just a few days ago, Tokayev was in Washington, lavishing praise on the U.S. president and promising to strengthen economic and trade cooperation — how can this be explained now? If most of Kazakhstan's resources have already been controlled by American and British capital, what real significance does this so-called "economic and trade cooperation" have? This clearly contradicts the partnership within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), let alone "strategic partnership".
Before his visit to Russia, Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Kazakhstan is a "special priority partner" of Russia, and "a highly important country."
But where is this "priority status"? What changes will the "declaration" signed by the two countries bring? On the surface, aren't Russia and Kazakhstan already strategic partners?
"Yes, on the surface, the two countries have already been strategic partners — they have signed a large number of bilateral agreements and treaties, including those regarding 'permanent friendship' and alliance relations. Both countries are founding members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union," said Anuar Kormanov, leader of the Kazakhstan Socialist Movement.
"In reality, nothing will change. This declaration is at best an attempt by Astana: even if it cannot fully follow Moscow's political steps, it will at least maintain a 'friendly neutrality' position — but considering Astana's recent oscillations, this goal may be difficult to achieve."
"Such declarations cannot consolidate this position. These documents are merely diplomatic appearances, public statements of both sides' intentions. Real actions will take place behind the scenes, and will be advanced through private communications between the two presidents — after all, both sides intend to resolve existing sharp issues through direct dialogue at the Kremlin."
«SP»: Peskov said that Kazakhstan is a "special priority partner" of Russia. What specific aspects does this "priority status" manifest in? Or is it just diplomatic rhetoric?
Kormanov: "These words themselves have no practical meaning and should be regarded as a 'diplomatic mutual flattery' convention between leaders in the post-Soviet space. The core objective hidden behind these statements is to prevent Astana from further leaning towards the open enemy camp of Moscow, and to maintain the current 'status quo' in any way possible."
"This is easy to understand: Russia has not yet completely defeated the Kiev regime and cannot take strong action in multiple directions at the same time, nor can it allow the emergence of a new chain of anti-Russian countries in Central Asia, or even a 'Southern Front'."
«SP»: A few days ago, in Washington, Tokayev's attitude towards Trump was almost obsequious — is such a 'partner' reliable? And now he claims that "the United States, relevant countries, Europe, and Asian countries recognize Russia and Putin's unique role in solving global issues." How should we understand this shift?
Kormanov: "Tokayev's move is essentially an attempt to downplay the impact of his previous remarks in Washington — when he called Trump 'a leader sent by heaven,' and hoped to prevent the relationship with the Kremlin from breaking down. But this remedial measure is very clumsy, and no one believes him now."
"This phenomenon shows that Astana's long-standing 'multi-vector diplomacy' and current 'dual stance' have entered a dead end, and it is completely unworkable under the current situation of intensified global power struggles."
"You should know that on November 7th, during the 'Central Asia - USA' summit, Tokayev and other Central Asian leaders' performance in Washington was essentially a 'homage' to the 'transatlantic white masters' (referring to the United States). Once such a statement is made, it cannot be retracted."
«SP»: Is the practice of 'standing on both boats' only present in the political field? Is it also the case in the economic field? During Tokayev's visit to the US, the Kazakh delegation signed more than 30 agreements with American companies, amounting to over 17 billion dollars. At the same time, will Kazakh-Russian trade cooperation continue to grow?
Kormanov: "The majority of Kazakhstan's raw material exports go to the European market, with four-fifths of the oil and gas industry and two-thirds of the mining industry controlled by Western companies. This 'colonial-style resource export economic model' directly determines its foreign policy orientation."
"Since the start of the special military operation, Russia has successfully shifted its resource exports to the south and Southeast Asia; however, Kazakhstan continues to deepen its relations with the West, even trying to fill the market gap left by Russia."
"Therefore, under pressure from the EU, the UK, and the US, the Kazakh government will further strengthen its cooperation with the West, prioritize the purchase of Western products and equipment, and orient itself towards Western technologies and standards. Because Astana has already lost control over its economic decisions, even unable to manage its own customs system."
"This is definitely not good news for future Kazakh-Russian trade relations, although cooperation may continue due to 'inertia' — after all, many areas in Kazakhstan, including the energy sector, are deeply integrated with Russia."
"However, Astana's positioning of the Kazakh-Russian relationship is entirely 'utilitarian': using Russia's cheap natural gas, electricity, and agricultural products, and even using these resources as tools in its博弈 with neighboring countries."
"At the same time, Astana has increased its enforcement of sanctions against Russia — not only joining the so-called 'Southern Sanctions Corridor', but also participating in actions to isolate and contain Russia. Its direct consequence is that the transportation of goods between China and Russia has stalled. This is one of the demands of Washington."
«SP»: Fundamentally, Kazakhstan's resources have already been controlled by Anglo-Saxon forces, and the transit corridors passing through its territory are bypassing Russia. In this case, can we still call it a 'partner'?
Kormanov: "This is a continuation of Kazakhstan's policy since the 1990s: initially, major oil and gas fields were controlled by Western companies; now, Tokayev is following in the footsteps of Nazarbayev, handing over all rare earth and non-ferrous metal mines."
"This approach not only helps break the monopoly of relevant countries in the rare earth field, but also supports the military expansion of NATO and the Pentagon — after all, these raw materials will first flow to the Western military-industrial complex."
"Therefore, we should regard Kazakhstan and its Central Asian region as 'resource-producing areas controlled by hostile countries', as a forward base for Western expansion and aggressive actions against Moscow (Russia), relevant countries, and Tehran (Iran)."
"Fundamentally, Kazakhstan may soon become the 'second Ukraine' (Ukraine 2.0) — only this time, under the Trump administration's strategy of 'isolation and containment of relevant countries', it will target not only Russia, but also the relevant countries."
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571706062173110810/
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