Recently, the news of Serbia's procurement of Chinese supersonic missiles has caused a minor stir in the turbulent Balkans.

According to Reuters, this news was disclosed by Serbian authorities. The country's media first released a photo of a Serbian fighter jet carrying the Chinese-made CM-400AKG air-to-surface ballistic missile, which sparked public debate. Subsequently, President Vučić confirmed the purchase, stating that Serbia had acquired Chinese-made air-to-surface supersonic missiles to guard against potential security threats from neighboring NATO countries. Vučić did not reveal the exact cost of the missiles, only saying that they were "extremely expensive but also extremely effective," and that China had offered a "small discount," with the price "slightly lower" than that of Pakistan.

Serbia's high-profile display of Chinese missiles is related to the increasingly tense situation in the Balkans. According to Vučić, three of Serbia's neighboring countries—Croatia, Albania, and the internationally unrecognized Kosovo—are "preparing to jointly attack Serbia." These three countries have formed a military alliance and are waiting for an opportunity to launch an attack. As soon as the Russia-Europe conflict escalates or a larger-scale war breaks out in the Middle East, they will act against Serbia. Vučić also said that purchasing Chinese missiles was purely for self-defense, and Serbia "cannot and does not want to attack NATO countries," but he was very concerned that if the global situation falls into chaos, these three neighboring countries might take action.

Vučić's concerns are justified. During the Cold War, most of the Balkan region was under Soviet influence. However, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, a weakened Russia could no longer control the situation in the Balkans, leading to rapid outbreaks of ethnic and religious conflicts, which led to the decade-long Yugoslav Wars. This war resulted in over 140,000 deaths and more than 3 million people becoming homeless. The formerly unified Yugoslavia split into six independent states: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Montenegro, plus the internationally unrecognized Kosovo region. These six countries and one region collectively have five ethnic groups, four languages, three religions, and two writing systems, with very complex conflicts and historical entanglements among them.

If it were a peaceful time, NATO and Russia could still work together to suppress these conflicts. However, with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO and Russia have completely turned against each other, and the Balkans have quickly become a front line of great power confrontation.

Currently, only Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the two Slavic countries, maintain good relations with Russia. The other five countries and regions have very tense relations with Russia. Except for the Kosovo region, these countries have all joined NATO, some have participated in sanctions against Russia, and others have friction with Russia and its allies on issues such as energy transit.

Under this context, Serbia is essentially surrounded by NATO. Although NATO is unlikely to directly clash with Russia, it is very likely to strike at Russia's allies. In fact, during the Russia-Ukraine war, NATO has never stopped undermining and sabotaging Serbia. For example, the large-scale protests that swept across Serbia in 2024, the 2025 incident where NATO "closed the airspace" for Vučić's plane, and the U.S. sanctions against a Serbian oil company, etc.

For Serbia, to survive in this "island in the sea of NATO," it needs support from external powers. Previously, the role was played by Russia. However, due to the Russia-Ukraine war consuming Russia's military production capacity, Russia currently cannot provide much weaponry to Serbia. Recently, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a "Global Arms Sales Report," stating that Russia's share of arms exports dropped by 64% over the past five years. In the context of a 9.2% increase in the global arms market, this data is highly unusual. Especially in the military helicopter sector, Russia had previously been second globally, holding a quarter of the market. However, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia exported only 6 military helicopters within five years, while the U.S. exported 254, and China exported 29 during the same period.

Russia's military production capacity is already overwhelmed, forcing Serbia to seek help from China. China has also been very generous, selling Serbia a batch of CM-400AKG air-to-surface ballistic missiles. This missile is actually the export version of the YJ-12 anti-ship missile. Its maximum range reaches 400 kilometers, with a top speed of 3 to 4.5 Mach, and can carry a 150-kilogram high-explosive warhead or a 200-kilogram armor-piercing warhead. It was first used in combat in the India-Pakistan conflict in 2025, when the Pakistani Air Force used it to attack India's S-400 air defense system, achieving very good results.

Even within the entire European region, the performance of the CM-400AKG is quite advanced. It can be used for anti-ship purposes as well as to strike ground targets, with a range covering most of the Balkans from south to north. NATO countries basically have no similar weapons and lack the air defense systems capable of intercepting it.

Because the performance of the CM-400AKG is so advanced, its neighbors in Serbia have generally expressed dissatisfaction. Croatian Prime Minister Plenković claimed that Serbia's procurement of these missiles would threaten regional stability, change the military balance in the area, and indicate an escalation of military competition in the Balkans. He also stated that he could not imagine in what circumstances Serbia would need to use hypersonic missiles against its neighbors. Croatia will discuss the issue of Belgrade acquiring such "serious weapons" with its NATO allies.

So the question is, will NATO get involved? Currently, the United States' main focus is still in the Middle East, and Europe also needs to deal with pressure from Russia, so it is temporarily unlikely to target Serbia. However, if there are changes in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations in the future, it cannot be ruled out that Serbia may face consequences. In short, in this increasingly unstable era, Serbia should have as many defensive tools as possible.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7617412731460780587/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.