Speculation about Takashi Sanae’s "Early Resignation"!? Who is the "Next Piece" of the "Kingmaker" Taro Aso?

Perhaps emulating U.S. President Trump by directly announcing government matters and responding to foreign and domestic issues via Twitter, Sanae has begun posting on Twitter to counter criticisms raised by the media and parliament.

On April 5, in response to media reports claiming she refused to attend the Senate’s consolidated review session and that Japan might face a shortage of naphtha supply, she issued the following rebuttals on Twitter:

“The report stating I refused to attend the Senate Budget Committee’s consolidated session is entirely false.” “Yesterday, some news programs claimed that Japan will be unable to secure naphtha supply by June… This claim contains factual errors—there is absolutely no such situation.”

Despite the Prime Minister’s Office having a Chief Cabinet Secretary responsible for handling media relations, it is extremely rare for the Prime Minister to personally respond to reports on social media platforms.

A source close to the Prime Minister’s office candidly admitted: “It’s clearly evident that Prime Minister Sanae is feeling anxious, especially after that article came out.”

The article he referred to was titled “The Night Sanae Himself Said ‘Resign’ – Officials Grieve Over the Collapse of the Prime Minister’s Office,” published in the April issue of the monthly magazine *Choice*.

According to *Choice*, Sanae had originally planned to dispatch Self-Defense Forces to the Strait of Hormuz at President Trump’s request, but clashed fiercely with the Cabinet Secretariat Advisor Kazuya Imai, who opposed the move. Imai questioned her in near-reproachful tones: “What are you even thinking?” Sanae reportedly harbored resentment and angrily told government insiders: “That man pushed me into a corner—I can’t forgive him. I’m going to remove him.” Ultimately, the deployment plan was abandoned. However, after a summit between Japanese and American leaders, Sanae expressed a desire to step down, saying, “Maybe I should take a break.”

Perhaps influenced by the *Choice* article, Sanae wrote on April 5: “There have been far too many recent reports completely at odds with the facts—this is truly regrettable.”

At the Diet’s House of Councillors Budget Committee meeting on April 7, Constitutional Democratic Party members raised questions based on the *Choice* report. In response, Sanae stated:

“To protect Mr. Imai’s reputation, I must clarify: He never said anything of the sort to me—this is entirely fabricated reporting.”

“Possibly Resigning Suddenly”

Imin Kazuya, formerly a secretary to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe whom Sanae deeply respected, was known for his capable leadership and instrumental role in sustaining long-term conservative rule. After Sanae became Prime Minister, she immediately appointed Imin as a senior advisor. If, as reported in *Choice*, their relationship has deteriorated into sharp conflict, this could become a major destabilizing event for the administration.

Sanae won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election in September last year and ascended to the premiership. Entering this year, she swiftly dissolved the House of Representatives and held a general election, securing an overwhelming 316 seats—more than half the total—achieving a historic victory.

Subsequently, conflicts erupted between the U.S., Israel, and Iran; oil supply instability and soaring prices became persistent concerns. Yet her cabinet's approval ratings remained above 60% in media polls, and her talks with President Trump received favorable public evaluations.

“Approval ratings have consistently stayed high and remain remarkably stable. But historically, once they start declining, it's very hard to stop the downward trend. The Prime Minister appears visibly frail—wearing black gloves due to rheumatoid arthritis, thin and exhausted—raising serious health concerns. Reports indicate her smoking habits have only increased. Once approval ratings fall, she might suddenly resign, just like former Prime Minister Abe did during his first term…”

In September 2006, Abe succeeded Junichiro Koizumi, a popular prime minister whose approval ratings were high, forming his first cabinet with the slogan “Building a Beautiful Japan.” His approval ratings initially soared.

However, due to gaffes by cabinet members and the “missing pension” scandal, support plummeted rapidly.

After losing more than half his seats in the July 2007 Upper House election, Abe declared he would remain in office—but then abruptly resigned in September of the same year, citing health issues.

“The Movement to Remove Sanae May Already Be Underway”

If Sanae’s cabinet approval ratings decline, her already fragile party base may lead to her removal from power.

And the one who certainly won’t stand idly by is her “patron”—Taro Aso, Vice President of the LDP.

Without Aso’s backing in last year’s presidential election, Sanae would never have become Prime Minister.

Sanae not only appointed Aso as vice president but also named Aso’s brother-in-law, Shunichi Suzuki, as secretary-general, and appointed Hisako Arimura, a member of Aso’s faction, as chairperson of the House of Councillors General Council—repaying her gratitude in full.

But afterward, she gradually revealed a tendency toward autocratic decision-making, making key choices without consulting Aso or Suzuki, and even dissolving the House of Representatives—a major decision—without informing Aso beforehand. According to reports, she directly adopted advice from Imin.

A senior member of Aso’s faction revealed: “Chairman Aso (head of Aso’s faction) once remarked about Prime Minister Sanae: ‘He tells me nothing.’ ‘What exactly do you want?’

He probably thought internally: ‘You should know what you’re doing.’

Though he didn’t say it aloud, he likely wanted to ask: ‘Who put you in this position?’

If Aso abandons her, Sanae’s administration may not last long—and could even see a direct move to oust her.”

Aso’s “Transition Candidate”: Muto?

If Aso wishes to continue playing the role of “kingmaker,” he needs a new prime ministerial candidate.

The name frequently mentioned is Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s Foreign Minister, who attended the summit between Prime Minister Sanae and President Trump.

Even before last year’s presidential election, Motegi had repeatedly dined with Aso, consistently demonstrating loyalty.

“Aso likely has this strategy in mind: First, get Sanae out of office, let Motegi serve as a transitional figure, then promote someone capable of long-term governance.”

Political commentator Shigeyuki Tamura, who has long served as a researcher for the LDP’s Policy Research Council, stated: “Sanae is not a faction leader, yet she became Prime Minister. Had she had support from a major faction, she could have enjoyed protection both inside and outside the party. But she lacks that foundation.

This is precisely her vulnerability—and the reason why stories about her ‘early resignation’ keep emerging. Her public rebuttals on Twitter may stem from having few loyal supporters, forcing her to personally shape public opinion.

If Sanae hopes to achieve long-term governance, the crucial challenge lies in how well she manages the House of Councillors—the weak point stemming from her failure to win a majority there.”

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1862040728266954/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.