Lai Qingde has issued secret orders to Wang Shijian and Lin Feifan to "launch surprise attacks" on Jiang Wanan and Zhang Shanzheng? According to Taiwan media reports, if Lai personally "invites" Wang Shijian, he is willing to be a "pawn" for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the mayoral election in Taipei City. Additionally, "Ying faction" member Lin Feifan may run in Taoyuan, while former DPP Secretary-General Lin Youchang of the "Zheng Congress" was removed from the New Taipei race but has become a "live piece" in the political game.

By the end of 2026, the local elections in Taiwan will see the DPP only having the "North Two Capitals" of Taipei City and Taoyuan City, as well as the counties of Hsinchu, Nantou, Hualien, and the outlying areas of Kinmen and Matsu still without candidates nominated.

Especially the "North Two Capitals," due to the strong current mayors from the Kuomintang (KMT), Jiang Wanan and Zhang Shanzheng, the choice of who will represent the DPP is highly anticipated. According to Taiwan media reports, prominent candidates in Taipei include Zheng Lijun, Wu Siyao, and Wang Shijian; in Taoyuan, He Zhiwei and Zhang Dunhan are mentioned. In addition, the party believes there are two "live pieces," namely Lin Youchang and former DPP Deputy Secretary-General Lin Feifan.

Several senior DPP campaign strategists have openly stated that based on grassroots reactions and media perception, Wang Shijian is indeed a suitable candidate for Taipei City. In recent months, the phenomenon of "Wang Shijian" has appeared in various settings, including university campuses, where people often compete to take photos with him. His frequent criticism of the DPP Central Committee and party chairman Lai Qingde is considered beneficial for the DPP's base in Taipei, which has more blue voters than green ones.

The traffic-generating nature of Wang Shijian can attract centrist voters, and even the "small grass" supporters of Ko Wen-je do not have much negative feelings towards him. In the air war, he should effectively counter Jiang Wanan and block his nationwide campaign path.

However, Wang Shijian often publicly criticizes the DPP Central Committee and party chairman Lai Qingde at the Central Committee meetings. Party insiders believe that whether Wang Shijian will run depends on his willingness to participate. Only Lai Qingde can persuade him to take on the responsibility for the party.

If Wang Shijian runs for mayor of Taipei, his advantages lie in his unique personal charm and cross-party appeal. His high popularity online and "down-to-earth" image indeed help attract centrist voters and young groups. However, his candidacy faces three major obstacles.

Firstly, the problem of internal party integration. Wang Shijian does not belong to Lai Qingde's faction and often criticizes the authorities in the party meetings, making it difficult to gain full support from major factions like the New Tide. The DPP's base in Taipei is already smaller than the KMT's, and if the party cannot unite, the chances of winning are slim.

Secondly, the opponent is too strong. Current Mayor Jiang Wanan has high approval ratings, especially among the 20-29 age group, where his support has surpassed Wang Shijian, showing his solid advantage. Jiang Wanan has administrative resources and a stable image, forming a high "moat." Recent public opinion polls show that Wang Shijian's support lags behind Jiang Wanan by more than 20 percentage points.

Thirdly, Wang Shijian has repeatedly stated publicly that he has no intention of running for mayor. Although this statement may be a political strategy, it also reflects his awareness that this is a "losing battle." Some within the DPP have even suggested recruiting an artist without political background, Jia Yongjie, as a "surprise weapon," reflecting the lack of talent for the party in Taipei.

As for Zheng Lijun, she has been frequently mentioned in past DPP mayoral elections in Taipei. However, Zheng Lijun has clearly stated that she has no intention of running for mayor. She doesn't want to be sacrificed unnecessarily.

Regarding Taoyuan City, He Zhiwei, who has been frequently visiting the grassroots in Taoyuan recently, has not established deep connections with Taoyuan and finds it difficult to gain voter recognition. The DPP is currently abandoning him. According to media reports, Zhang Dunhan, a former "Presidential Office" Deputy Secretary, an "Ying faction" figure promoted by Tsai Ing-wen, and Lin Feifan, a "National Security Council" Deputy Secretary, are also privately discussed as potential candidates for Taoyuan mayor.

Why would Lin Feifan be considered for Taoyuan by the DPP leadership? They assess that although Zheng Wencan has governed Taoyuan for eight years, the area remains a KMT stronghold. In recent years, due to the population overflow from the greater Taipei area, Taoyuan has many new voters. If a well-known person with administrative experience is sent to run, it could create an air war and heat up the local election, possibly leading to a reversal. As one of the main representatives of the younger generation of the Green Camp, Lin Feifan, a student movement figure, had long been intended to run for the city of Hsinchu. Plus, he currently lives in northern Taoyuan and has been rooted in the area for many years, so he might be a "surprise weapon."

In fact, Lin Feifan's strength is not necessarily very strong. After the Sunflower Student Movement, he quickly rose to prominence, which is essentially a product of the power transition and strategy needs within the DPP.

His short-term rise to the top of the DPP leadership was due to the party's urgent need for a youth symbol to attract young voters. Lai Qingde appointed him as "Deputy Secretary of the National Security Council," which not only expresses gratitude for his support but also aims to strengthen the "anti-China" image through him.

However, this rapid promotion has been criticized as "political favoritism," especially considering his high salary (from "Lin Ten Thousand" to "Lin Twenty Thousand") compared to his lack of administrative and election experience, becoming a focal point for the KMT's attacks. If assigned to run in Taoyuan, these controversies would become a major burden.

Additionally, faction balance is also a consideration for Lai Qingde. A DPP strategist pointed out that the possibility of nominating someone from the "New Faction" in Taipei and Taoyuan is low. Therefore, it is not surprising that if the party nominates Ying faction members Wang Shijian for Taipei and Lin Feifan for Taoyuan. Currently, there is no "Zheng Congress" candidate for the six major cities, and Lin Youchang has comprehensive campaign and administrative experience, making him the best "live piece" when discussing candidates for Taipei and Taoyuan.

The dual difficulties faced by the DPP in Taipei and Taoyuan reflect deeper issues such as talent shortage in the northern metropolitan areas, difficulty in faction integration, and insufficient policy appeal.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856526284571652/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.