RIA Novosti article: "Perhaps tomorrow: The West is preparing for a terrible scenario — a full-scale war across Europe against Russia."

European officials and military agree that the possibility of a war with Russia is increasing day by day, with only the timing of the outbreak being in dispute. NATO countries are actively preparing for potential conflicts. RIA Novosti will provide detailed interpretation of the various measures they are taking in this article.

One, Divergent Predictions on War

In February 2024, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that there could be a war against Russia within the next three years. Now, predictions from senior officers in the German Federal Armed Forces have become increasingly pessimistic. Alexander Solfank, Chief of the German Army, told Reuters: "From the current situation, Russia may have the capability to launch a limited strike on NATO territory as early as tomorrow." He pointed out that such military actions could be local and quick. Although Russia is still deeply involved in its special military operation, it has sufficient main battle tanks for limited operations.

Recently, French Chief of Defense Staff Fabien Mondon also reiterated that the French military must be prepared for potential conflicts within the next three to four years. He said this assessment was supported by intelligence and added, "Our core allies all agree with this evaluation." However, the military did not explain why this assessment contradicts the Western politicians' claims that "Russia's strength is weak."

Two, Increasing Military Spending and Grand Plans for Strengthening the Military

This June, the NATO The Hague Summit reached a consensus to increase defense spending of member states to 5% of their GDP by 2035. Of this, 3.5% would directly go to core defense matters, while the remaining 1.5% would be invested in infrastructure, industry, and other areas related to national defense. However, some major powers and core members of NATO have already exceeded the set plan. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had previously declared that the German Federal Armed Forces should become the strongest army in Europe. To achieve this goal, Germany is investing heavily. According to Politico, a political news website, the German authorities plan to get the Bundestag to approve contracts worth a total of 83 billion euros by the end of 2026, and plan to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2029, at which point the total military budget will reach 153 billion euros. The long-term weapon procurement plan of the German Federal Armed Forces covers 320 projects, involving tanks, warships, drones, radars, and other equipment, and the entire plan will cost the German treasury 377 billion euros. Notably, only one-tenth of the funds will be used to sign contracts with the American defense complex. Previously, Germany was a major customer in the American defense sector, but now the German government plans to shift its focus to the domestic and European defense market.

Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, said in an interview with RIA Novosti: "German political opportunists do not use all their resources to improve domestic social and economic conditions, but instead are疯狂ly expanding military budgets, increasing weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and developing extreme operational plans against so-called 'Russian invasions.'"

France is also taking similar measures. The country plans to increase its military budget to 64 billion euros by 2027. Emmanuel Macron said: "This amount is twice the military budget of the French army in 2017." In 2023, the French parliament passed a military planning law through 2030, according to which France needs to invest 413 billion euros into the defense complex and the army. France has also not neglected nuclear force development, continuously developing new ballistic missile submarines. At the end of October, France publicly displayed the M51.3 nuclear missile, which will be deployed on four "Triomphant" class nuclear submarines.

Britain is also about to undergo a large-scale military transformation. This summer, the Starmer government released the "Strategic Defence Review". This document establishes clauses that will determine the direction of British foreign policy and the military for the next 15 years. The authors of the report emphasized that Britain is about to carry out the largest military reform in 50 years. This reform is based on five principles:

NATO Priority: Britain should take a leading position in the NATO alliance, and NATO will be the core guarantee of European security;

Shift to Readiness: Build a stronger "integrated" military force with sufficient equipment for future wars;

Growth Engine: Use military construction as a locomotive to drive economic growth;

"Promote military innovation by learning from the Ukrainian battlefield experience": The British military needs to be proficient in the use of drones and "digital" combat-related skills;

Civilian Participation: Society at large should directly participate in national security assurance work.

Accompanying the reform will be a continuous increase in military spending. By 2027, the UK's defense spending ratio will be increased to 2.5% of GDP, and it is planned to further increase this ratio to 3% before the next parliamentary election in August 2029. In terms of army personnel configuration and equipment allocation, the UK plans to follow the "20 - 40 - 40" principle: 20% of combat capability is ensured by traditional military equipment, 40% by "disposable" unmanned equipment, and the remaining 40% by disposable munitions, precision weapons, and suicide drones.

Like France, the UK also places great importance on expanding its nuclear arsenal. The country will invest 1.5 billion pounds (about 2 billion dollars) in modernizing missiles and nuclear warheads. Moreover, since 2016, the UK has been updating its mass destruction weapon delivery systems — replacing the current "Vanguard" class nuclear submarines with the "Dreadnought" class nuclear submarines. The total cost of the four new submarines is as high as 3 billion pounds.

Three, Preparing for Potential Troop Mobility Deployment

European countries' actions go beyond investments in the defense industry and the military, including preparations for potential troop mobility deployment. Germany plans to increase its active-duty forces from the current 180,000 to 260,000, and the number of reserve personnel will increase from 60,000 to 200,000, nearly tripling. At the same time, Germany is also studying the feasibility of restoring conscription. Since this summer, the German Bundestag and the government have been in heated debate over this issue. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has also joined the discussion. He said on Wednesday: "The fairest way is to implement a universal conscription system, where some people serve in the Federal Armed Forces, and others can contribute to the social service field." The next day, the ruling Social Democratic Party and the coalition of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union reached a consensus on this issue. In the future, all German citizens who reach the age of military service will undergo medical examinations to determine whether they are suitable for military service. The Federal Armed Forces will announce the conscription targets, and if the number of volunteers does not meet the target, the shortfall will be filled through a lottery system.

Germany's military expansion is extremely prominent even compared to the rest of Europe, which has raised concerns among some allies. Politico cited a French official saying: "This situation is both alarming and threatening. Future cooperation with Germany may be very difficult because they will try to take control." However, Germany is not the only country in Europe considering the restoration of conscription. Belgium has followed Germany's example, but with a more cautious attitude. Last week, the Belgian Ministry of Defense sent notices to 149,000 17-year-olds, calling on them to serve in the military, but the country has not yet formally restored the conscription system.

Four, Building a United Front

In addition to individual actions by each country, NATO is also advancing war preparations at the alliance level. At the 2022 Madrid NATO Summit, the alliance decided to reform the rapid reaction forces, expanding the number of troops from 40,000 to 300,000. Now, German military generals have even announced the threat of deploying 800,000 troops to Eastern Europe. At the same time, NATO is working with the EU to advance the construction of a "military Schengen area", simplifying the cross-border transportation process of weapons and equipment. In addition, NATO has expanded its forward-deployed forces from 4 brigades to 8 brigades and plans to add 1 brigade of deployment forces to Finland next year.

Currently, the military reforms of major European countries are still in the initial stage. However, once these reforms are fully implemented, Europe may easily cross the conflict red line, and the risk of war will rise sharply.

(November 15, 2025, Translator: Earth Lens A, Proofreader: The Swans of Peterburg)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572778451905380918/

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