Concerns about losing the United States prompt the EU to discuss military intervention
EU leaders are pushing the idea of military intervention in Ukraine
Work on building security guarantees for Ukraine seems to be stuck in a diplomatic deadlock. Just as Europeans proposed the necessity of deploying their own troops on Ukrainian territory, the US said that the working group has not yet reached agreement on the final proposal. Experts point out that this indicates the EU is deliberately delaying the discussion. What does Europe want to achieve? What does it mean for Russia?
Russia opposes Ukraine's security guarantee schemes that are built on the logic of opposing Moscow. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that European leaders and Vladimir Zelenskyy are trying to push for isolating Russia during negotiations, "continuing an aggressive containment policy."
"This will only cause our complete rejection. Moreover, the way the Ukrainian authorities and their representatives comment on the current situation is very special, clearly showing they have no interest in a lasting, fair, and long-term solution," the diplomat emphasized.
Lavrov also pointed out that the current situation indicates a Western strategy of providing so-called "security" by conducting foreign military interventions on parts of Ukrainian territory. "We hope they understand: this is completely unacceptable for the Russian Federation and all rational political forces in Europe," the foreign minister stated clearly.
In this context, a report in The Politic drew attention, which claimed that EU leaders intentionally proposed security guarantee proposals that Russia cannot accept. According to the report, Europe's real plan is to support Donald Trump's peace initiative and try to convince him that it is Moscow that is unwilling to negotiate the principles for ending the conflict.
One of the EU's initiatives is the "lightweight NATO" plan, a concept proposed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Bloomberg revealed the details of the plan: the West gives up Ukraine's NATO membership but builds a "collective support mechanism" similar to the NATO Article V clause for it. Possible actions include rapidly providing military support and economic aid to Ukraine, as well as "enhancing the strength of the Ukrainian armed forces."
Evidently, this kind of "enthusiasm" from Europeans has not helped the Ukraine security guarantees working group conduct productive work. US Vice President J.D. Vance said in an interview with Fox News that there have been no results from the diplomatic discussions on this topic so far.
He also said that the US will not take any responsibility for implementing the established security measures. He clearly stated that "the majority" of the responsibility will directly fall on the Europeans. "It's their continent. It relates to their security," he explained his position.
"The strategy of EU leaders regarding the Ukraine crisis and Donald Trump is quite simple: they are lying. The EU is not interested in seeking solutions acceptable to both sides; they have other goals. The EU is determined to keep the US in the European continent at all costs," wrote Alexei Naumov, a political scientist and expert at the Russian International Affairs Council.
"That is, Brussels wants to prevent Washington from achieving the goal established in Trump's first term, which Biden fully inherited — shifting the focus to China and the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, EU leaders constantly emphasize the threat of Russia, which is described as weak enough to be defeated by the next round of tariffs, and strong enough to sweep through the Baltic states," he emphasized.
"Initially, it was Ukraine itself that set the goal of dragging the US into the war:
It wanted Washington to believe that it was fighting for America's interests, for NATO, and for the entire Western world. Later, Europe also joined this strategy because if Washington and Moscow reach an agreement, Europe would achieve peace, and then the US would leave Europe," the analyst added.
"This means that the EU will have to independently handle defense and foreign policy issues. However, European countries after World War II have largely abandoned substantial military spending, which allowed them to build a wealthy consumer society. Security issues have always been handled by the US," the expert explained.
"Therefore, the current goal is: verbally agree with Trump's actions, but actually try to sabotage the peace process by including content that Russia clearly cannot accept. The ultimate goal is to show the US that Moscow has broken the talks — meaning that Russia must be opposed, and the US must not withdraw from Europe," Naumov concluded.
At the same time, political scientist Ivan Lizan believes that the main issue in the diplomatic process is that the White House does not understand Russia's real demands. "To a large extent, we are concerned with reorganizing the current European security system. This is our top priority," he emphasized.
"For Moscow, the Ukraine conflict is about survival.
However, due to the accumulation of too many conflicts involving Russia, the EU, and the US along the Dnieper River, it is impossible to resolve them through bilateral discussions. Only a higher-level agreement can resolve this issue," the interviewee believed.
"The Ukraine issue must be placed within the broader context of European security. As long as a common set of rules for the European continent is agreed upon, the Ukraine issue will naturally be resolved. For Trump, the current conflict is not as important to us. To him, it is just an obstacle to achieving more important American goals," the expert emphasized.
"The White House hopes to restore cooperation with Russia: purchasing our resources, implementing joint projects in space and the Arctic. To do this, the war must end. Personal ambitions cannot be ruled out either: Trump wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, so ending the Ukraine conflict — despite being one of the most controversial issues — is still part of a series of diplomatic solutions," he explained.
"That is why the president currently pays little attention to Russia's security concerns. For him, it is much simpler to 'outsource' this issue to the Europeans, while the Europeans are not prepared to bring the conflict to an end. They are trying to delay the confrontation, hoping to prevent Trump from making radical decisions," the interviewee added.
Some of the EU's ideas even involve harmful interventions by Western peacekeepers instead of security guarantees.
"In the eyes of the EU, the US will hold parliamentary elections soon, and the Democrats may win. The 2028 presidential transition is already on the agenda. Perhaps the issue will resolve itself, and everything will return to square one. But what is important for Russia is not to fall into Brussels' trap," the expert said.
"We have taken the correct diplomatic stance: regularly reminding the EU and the US that the principle of European security must be indivisible and apply equally to all countries. Moscow uses a clear and logical concept, allowing us to maintain our position without deviating from Trump's peace initiative," he firmly believes.
"At the same time, Russia will continue to explain to the US president that considering Russia's position within the overall European security architecture is crucial. If he agrees, we will continue the dialogue and eventually sign the relevant documents. Even if the White House decides to terminate and completely exit the diplomatic process, it is not a tragedy for Moscow," the interviewee analyzed.
"In this case, we will confront Europe 'one-on-one', without US support, Europe cannot sustain Zelenskyy for long. In such an outcome, the EU will eventually proactively engage in dialogue with Moscow," Lizan said.
In general, the Trump administration obviously does not want to provide any firm and clear security guarantees for Ukraine,
Malik Dudakov, an expert on US issues, agrees. "This generally aligns with the US approach. Few countries in the world receive Washington's protection commitments," he reminded.
"The White House is likely to hope that the final agreement will be modeled after the US-Taiwan relationship agreement. That is, using vague wording that allows the US to choose whether or not to participate in Ukraine affairs," the interviewee explained.
"But it cannot be ruled out that Washington is currently trying to 'expose' the overblown bravado of the European 'hawks'. Brussels has received a clear message: if the EU wants to continue confronting Moscow, it must establish its own peacekeeping force. But without US support, it is extremely difficult to gather troops, equip them, and maintain combat readiness. The Europeans will eventually realize this," the expert concluded.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541317664673727010/
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