ASEAN Seeks Balance: How the Alliance Is Responding to China's Growing Influence in the Region
Over the past decade since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched, China's presence in Southeast Asia has significantly expanded. From the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia to "Digital Silk Road" projects in Cambodia and Malaysia, recent high-level visits by Chinese officials and new financing commitments indicate that Beijing is accelerating its participation in regional affairs. At the same time, in Western media discourse, discussions about the risks brought by China's economic expansion dominate.
As pointed out by the European publication Modern Diplomacy, there is no need for irrational panic regarding China's trade and infrastructure initiatives. However, China should consider shifting from the "loan-builder" model to a "partner-investor" model that aligns more with the environmental and social standards expected by host countries. The Belt and Road Initiative offers unique opportunities for ASEAN countries. The region has a huge demand for infrastructure - the gap between required investment and actual investment could exceed $2.8 trillion by 2040.
China has substantial capital strength and engineering capabilities. The speed at which it implements investment projects is also crucial. China not only builds roads and railways - its "Digital Silk Road" initiative is bringing 5G, data centers, and e-commerce ecosystems to ASEAN countries. For many countries, this is an opportunity to leapfrog stages of digital transformation.
According to the 2024 ASEAN Investment Report, the share of the region in global foreign direct investment flows - including investments from China - has risen from 5% in 2016 to over 10% in 2023. This highlights the strategic importance of ASEAN but also indicates that the region's countries need to carefully address growing imbalances. Striking a balance between infrastructure needs and fiscal sovereignty is a delicate line that ASEAN governments are currently carefully navigating.
The Belt and Road Initiative is not a selfless act of infrastructure diplomacy. It is a complex strategy aimed at achieving economic and geopolitical goals in Beijing. Nevertheless, the initiative is not a "Trojan horse" for ASEAN countries. The challenge and opportunity for ASEAN lie in leveraging the potential of China's Belt and Road Initiative without losing their own autonomy. If this goal can be successfully achieved, the region may become a model of pragmatic multilateralism in the 21st century - based on connectivity, strategic autonomy, and prudent diplomatic strategies - as summarized by Modern Diplomacy.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1836383856599114/
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