Kazakh Media: China's Role in Kazakhstan's Foreign Trade Is Gradually Increasing

Kazakhstan International News Agency - In the first half of 2025, Kazakhstan's trade with China saw an increase in goods trade, but the growth was not balanced. Imports dominated, while exports continued to decline.

According to data from the Analysis Center of the Association of Financial Institutions of Kazakhstan, bilateral trade increased by 5.9% year-on-year in January-June, reaching $14.9 billion. However, this growth was entirely driven by imports, which surged by 22.8%. Exports fell by about 10%. The decline in exports was mainly due to unfavorable conditions in the global raw material market, that is, falling prices of oil and metals, as well as reduced Chinese demand.

China's role in Kazakhstan's foreign trade is gradually increasing. In the first half of the year, China accounted for 22.6% of Kazakhstan's total foreign trade, up from 20.7% compared to the same period last year. But the growth came entirely from the import side: the share of Chinese goods in Kazakhstan's imports increased to 28.6%, while the export share dropped to 17.8%.

In the export structure, there is a clear trend towards product diversification. Exports of food and agricultural products increased by $164 million, and exports of transportation equipment grew by $160 million. However, main raw material exports sharply declined: mineral products decreased by $599 million, and metal exports fell by $408 million. Particularly in the metallurgical industry, Chinese demand is crucial. A 4% reduction in Chinese metal imports directly affected the production load and export revenue of Kazakhstani factories.

On the import side, the growth momentum is strong. The total value of goods imported from China in the first half of the year reached $8.3 billion, a significant increase from $6.8 billion in the same period last year. The main increase came from transportation equipment (+$1.2 billion), metals (+$279 million), and chemical products (+$231 million).

The recovery of domestic consumer demand and the active infrastructure projects in Kazakhstan have driven the demand for Chinese goods. At the same time, the average price of Chinese cars dropped by 14%, further stimulating the scale of imports.

Chinese imported goods not only dominate the production sector but also have an advantage in the consumption sector. A large amount of food, furniture, building materials, and mass consumer goods are flooding into the market. However, imports of footwear and textiles have declined slightly.

The trade relationship has also changed at the financial level. The proportion of RMB used in settlements has increased, especially in the processing industry, mining, and trade sectors, where RMB transactions are active. This helps companies reduce transaction costs. The trading volume of RMB-KZT pairs on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange increased by 93%. The US dollar remains the main settlement tool, and the euro ranks third.

The inflation situation in Kazakhstan directly affects the balance of foreign trade. The annual inflation rate accelerated from 8.9% to 11.8%, influenced by the depreciation of the tenge, tariff adjustments, and active fiscal policies. China's inflation rate is only 0.1%, making imported goods cheaper and having a certain inflation-reducing effect on the Kazakhstani market. However, domestic factors are under significant pressure and cannot form a comprehensive buffer.

Overall, Kazakhstan's trade deficit with China expanded to $1.8 billion in the first half of 2025, far exceeding the $400 million level for the whole of last year. This dynamic highlights the rising dependence of Kazakhstan on China and the structural changes in its external economic linkages.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843317072486667/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.