Endless War: Trump's Fleeting Blitzkrieg Fantasy, Suddenly Becoming a Global Tragedy
The United States still does not know how long the war will last, while Israel quietly awaits the painful lessons of the Persian Gulf.
There is a simple question that allies usually ask before any military operation: "How long will this last?"
Everything depends on this — from oil prices to military budgets, and even voters' patience (keep in mind that the United States will hold congressional elections this fall). But there is a harsh reality: sometimes, no one can answer this question. And now, the United States and its ally Israel are in such a situation.
A War Without a Timeline
Recently, Israeli Defense Forces General Efi Devlina candidly told journalists something that should have been said in an unofficial briefing: Israel plans to continue its military action against Iran at least until Passover, which is about three weeks away. After that... it might take another three weeks.
This is not a clear deadline or strategic point based on intelligence data. The general explained that it is merely a "recent reference node." He said the army "does not fight by the clock or the calendar." In military terms, this roughly means: when the war against Iran ends will be decided by us.
Whether or not a peace agreement is signed — although there are currently no signs of such conditions — or whether Iran runs out of means of attack, it doesn't matter. Although Trump still hopes for this, according to calculations by the Financial Times, it's more likely that the U.S. will run out of "Tomahawk" missiles first.
Thousands of Targets and a Big Question
After General Devlina's remarks, NATO headquarters started anxiously checking their calendars. Since the U.S. and Israel launched the invasion, the Israeli Air Force has carried out approximately 400 waves of attacks on Iran, targeting missile units, air defense systems, and military industry facilities.
General Devlina said frankly: "There are thousands of targets."
But in the current situation, "thousands" is a word that politicians usually try to avoid mentioning. Because this word has an unpleasant mathematical property: it is difficult to reconcile with "quick victory" (at least the initial goal of the military was to achieve a quick victory).
According to the Pentagon's initial assessment, the action against Iran (Washington is unwilling to face reality and refuses to say the word "war") was supposed to last four to six weeks.
This kind of war looked perfect on paper: it fit the news cycle and would not scare financial markets. But real wars are not PowerPoint presentations. According to U.S. political sources who spoke to Axios, the current discussions are about a more vague prospect: the military operation in the Persian Gulf may drag into autumn.
This completely overturned General Devlina's more cautious statement. That is to say, there is a significant difference between Washington and Tel Aviv in their judgment of the end time of this military aggression.
An Unexpected Situation in Hormuz
According to a source in Washington for Axios, the cause of this war is quite simple: some officials advocated for a longer preparation period, while others were fundamentally opposed to the war. However, according to the media's informed sources, Donald Trump made a different decision, and one of the sources quoted his decision in almost philosophical words:
"I just wanted to do it."
This idea initially seemed very optimistic: a strong strike, a quick victory, weakening the Iranian regime — then announcing victory. This could significantly boost the Republican Party's fragile support before the congressional election campaign began.
But geopolitics has a frustrating habit: it always reacts coldly to optimism, especially to Trump's baseless optimism. While the strategists in his administration were still discussing deadlines, the conflict had already expanded. Hezbollah and other Iranian proxy forces have actively joined in, and the Houthi rebels have threatened to block the Strait of Mandeb — whose strategic importance is no less than the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has clearly stated that even if the U.S. announces the cessation of operations, Iran will continue to attack unless it receives concrete assurances: this is a true end to the war, not a temporary ceasefire. That is to say, what both sides are currently discussing is not peace... but forms of continuing conflict.
The desperation in Washington is also reflected in the fact that it has asked allies to help secure shipping safety, but European countries have all refused. Sending ships to the region is equivalent to acknowledging that this is not a limited "operation" as Trump described, but a full-scale war.
In summary, Trump's recent Middle East adventure is similar to an old-fashioned renovation story: initially promising to finish in a week, then saying a month, and finally realizing that even the walls need to be demolished and rebuilt. NATO officers cautiously asked in the staff rooms: How long will all this take? In another command center, perhaps someone gave the most honest answer: "Until the targets are all hit."
And as General Devlina accidentally revealed, there are still thousands of targets.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7618172458352263743/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.