October 24, 2025, Issue No. 1078
Duty Editor: Aslan Zhu Yilin
Review: Du Dazhuang Ye Weijie Wang Zeyuan Yu Wanlin
Executive Editor: Chen Zhuo
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Photo source: Financial Times
The Financial Times reported on October 23 that India continues to oppose China's investment facilitation proposal at the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Investment Facilitation for Development Agreement (IFDA). On October 7, during a WTO General Council meeting, India stated that IFDA would bring systemic and legal negative impacts, warned that unauthorized, non-multilateral issues should not be included in the WTO's formal agenda, as it could "violate the organization's basic framework," and urged the WTO Secretariat to remain neutral in related discussions. It is understood that IFDA is the first multilateral investment agreement globally, proposed by China in 2017 at the WTO, aiming to "improve the global investment environment and promote international cooperation," especially focusing on "benefiting developing countries and least developed countries." The proposal aims to establish an independent institution to set up pre-investment review or appeal systems to regulate member states' investment management. Over 120 member states have supported the inclusion of this proposal in WTO Annex 4. According to the annex regulations, the agreement is binding only on signatory countries. In 2023, India stated, "IFDA is binding only on signatory countries, not on other members, which violates the basic rules of WTO consensus decision-making and weakens the multilateral nature of the WTO. Some countries are trying to unilaterally influence multilateral institutions, and India opposes such measures."
NEWS
Photo source: Economic Times
The Economic Times reported on October 23 that according to information from Indian executives, Chinese smartphone contract manufacturers such as DBG and BYD are expanding or rebuilding their businesses in India. These manufacturers mainly expand their business in India through two ways: first, actively competing for contracts with Chinese smartphone brands in India. With the support of Chinese smartphone companies,(DBG) increased its contract manufacturing market share in India from 13% in Q1 2025 to 21% in Q3 2025; BYD's overall market share in India remained stable, and the proportion of production for companies like Xiaomi continued to increase. Second, collaborating with Chinese original equipment manufacturers (ODMs) such as Lianxiang Technology and Huaqin Technology to obtain more orders. Lianxiang and Huaqin have established joint ventures with Dixon Technologies and Bhagwati Products Ltd respectively. Data shows that in September 2025, DBG's contract manufacturing output for Lianxiang reached 24.4 billion rupees (₹244 crore), five times higher than in June. In contrast, the market share of Indian local contract manufacturers has significantly declined. Analysts point out that the core reason for the continuous expansion of Chinese electronic manufacturing service (EMS) companies in India is their technological advantages and better coordination with Chinese smartphone brands in India. However, in the long term, the expansion limit of Chinese EMS companies in India is obvious, and they are unlikely to fully occupy the Indian market, while Indian local EMS companies enjoy greater advantages under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) policy.
NEWS
India's crude oil import sources. Photo source: The Hindu
Reuters, Bloomberg, and other media reported on October 23 that as the US and Western countries continue to intensify sanctions against Russia, and US-India trade negotiations continue to progress, Indian refineries are adjusting their crude oil purchases, actively reducing the purchase of Russian oil. On one hand, state-owned refiners such as Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp are conducting comprehensive reviews of their trade documents with Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, aiming to avoid direct supply from these two oil companies to avoid being affected by US sanctions. On the other hand, Reliance Industries, India's largest buyer of Russian oil, has clearly stated that it will adjust the scale of Russian oil imports and strictly comply with relevant guidelines from the Indian government. Sources said that Reliance Industries has launched alternative procurement plans, starting to purchase spot crude oil from the Middle East and Brazil, partially replacing Russian oil supply.
NEWS
Photo source: Bloomberg
Reuters, NDTV, and Bloomberg reported on October 23 that Modi will attend the ASEAN Summit online, possibly canceling his meeting with Trump. It is known that Modi has confirmed to attend the 47th ASEAN Summit, which will be held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from October 26 to 28, via online means. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar expressed respect for this decision. At the same time, the Malaysian foreign minister confirmed that Trump will visit Malaysia. Modi's move indicates that his meeting plan with Trump may be canceled, and this arrangement also implies that India and the United States may not have reached a trade agreement yet. Analysts believe that one of the main obstacles in India-US trade negotiations is India's import of oil from Russia. As a response, the US has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on India, which in turn increases the difficulty of negotiations. It is reported that Modi originally planned to visit Cambodia and Malaysia, but due to changes in the schedule, he canceled the visit to Cambodia, and the participation in Malaysia was attended by Sujay Singh instead.
NEWS
Photo source: Reuters
Reuters reported on October 23 that Tata Technologies in India announced that due to Trump's broad crackdown on immigration, it will recruit more American employees in the US. The outsourcing business of Indian engineering service providers generally depends on the US market demand. Tata Technologies provides engineering and technical services to automotive, aerospace, and heavy machinery manufacturers in over 20 countries around the world, including Jaguar Land Rover, Vietnamese electric vehicle company VinFast, and Boeing. Tata Technologies has over 12,000 employees worldwide, and the percentage of local employees in its branches in China, Sweden, the UK, and the US has all exceeded 70%. Data shows that the company's total revenue for the fiscal year 2024-25 reached $587.97 million, with North America accounting for one-fifth. Warren Harris, CEO and Managing Director of Tata Technologies, stated that in response to changes in the US H1-B visa regulations, the company is proactively adjusting and will increase the recruitment of American citizens in the future. He emphasized that Tata Technologies still highly values the US market. The report said that as its customers have gradually adapted to the new tariff policies, its business in the US is expected to recover in the next 6-9 months.
NEWS
Photo source: New Delhi Television
The Hindustan Times and New Delhi Television reported on October 22 that Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanged sweets to show friendliness. The report said that on October 21, the spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in India stated on social media: "On the occasion of the Diwali festival, the Indian and Chinese armies exchanged sweets along the Line of Actual Control, which is a gesture of goodwill between the two sides." However, the Indian side did not make any statement. Since the conflict in the Galwan Valley in 2020, the tradition of exchanging sweets between the border troops of India and China during festivals had been interrupted for many years. On October 21, 2024, India and China reached a solution regarding border issues, and on October 31, the Diwali festival, both sides resumed the sweet exchange ceremony. At that time, both sides had disengaged from the Depsang Valley (known as Depsang in India) and the upper reaches of the Demchok River (known as Demchok in India) in the western sector of the India-China border. Over the past year, the India-China Border Affairs Coordination and Consultation Mechanism (WMCC) has held the 32nd, 33rd, and 34th meetings successively, and in August, the special representatives of India and China met and reached a consensus, determining to establish a boundary expert group within the WMCC framework to discuss advancing boundary negotiations in areas where conditions are suitable. At the same time, both sides also plan to establish a working group to promote effective border control and maintain peace and stability in the border area.
NEWS
Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir visiting the White House. Photo source: PTI
The Hindustan Times published an article on October 18, 2025 titled "Pakistan's Military, Pasni Port, and Selling Out to the United States," stating that Pakistan plans to open Pasni Port to the US, transforming itself into a key mineral transportation corridor. However, the project is unreasonable in terms of strategy and commercial aspects - reflecting Pakistan's urgent demands in the context of its geopolitical困境, but facing multiple obstacles such as funding, geopolitical博弈, and security, with an overall bleak prospect. The author Tara Kartha is the Director of Research and Analysis at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (R&A) in India and a former Secretary of the National Security Council (NSC) of India.
Recent news indicates that Pakistan is considering proposing the US to develop Pasni Port, turning it into a key mineral transportation route. According to the Financial Times, Pakistan has not yet negotiated with the US, but has discussed with the business community. This information has not been confirmed, more of a desperate move by Pakistan to seek external support amidst the tense situation in the Afghan border and frequent unrest by right-wing parties domestically. It lacks reasonable commercial returns, is not strategic for the US, and faces threats from terrorism, ultimately likely to fail.
First, the economic feasibility of the project is seriously insufficient. It is said that the construction and development cost of the port is about $1.2 billion, and Pakistan needs to bear at least half of it, but given Pakistan's current financial situation, it may be difficult to afford. The US Strategic Metals Company (USSM) signed a $500 million agreement with the Frontier Works Organization (FWO) operated by the Pakistani military, but this amount is just a small part of the total cost, and commercial institutions lack motivation to invest.
Second, the infrastructure and security of the project are weak. The head of USSM said that the important reason for choosing Pasni Port is its proximity to the Barrick Mining Corporation's Rikodick gold and copper ore deposit, located between Karachi and Gwadar Port. However, Gwadar Port, which is intended as a trade port, has been idle for a long time, with less than seven ships docking annually. Pakistan has not provided supporting roads and railways to optimize the port. More importantly, international capital is cautious about mineral development in the region: although the area is rich in gold and copper, the ongoing rebellion in Balochistan keeps foreign investors away, making the security of the project development difficult to guarantee. Saudi Arabia has already abandoned negotiations to fund the Barrick gold and copper mine.
Third, the project involves complex geopolitical background. According to an assessment by the Pakistan National Maritime Institute, if another war breaks out, the Indian Navy may attack major ports including Pasni Port, and introducing the US may protect the port and Gwadar Port. However, this demand is hard to achieve: on one hand, Pasni Port is far from the main combat areas of India and Pakistan, and even if the US station troops at Pasni Port, it would be difficult to affect the Indian military's actions. On the other hand, China-Pakistan military cooperation is close, and the US may not want its equipment exposed to Chinese sight. Additionally, the US may not see profit in the project. The Trump administration follows a "transactional" diplomacy, and the US already has about 10 safer bases in the Middle East. The Pasni Port project may face terrorist attacks, and the electricity in the Makran region where Pasni Port is located is supplied by Iran, which is not a profitable deal for the US.
*To read today's newspaper, please follow the WeChat official account "South Asia Research Group"
Editor of this issue: Long Fengmu
Reviewer of this issue: Jiang Yi Fan Jiayuan
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